Racing Post BMW PGA Championship Golf Predictions and Betting Tips

When to bet on the BMW PGA Championship

Thursday at 7am

Where can I watch the BMW PGA Championship

Live on Sky Sports Golf from 8.30am on Thursday

BMW PGA Championship predictions

Matteo Manassero
2 points each way 33-1 BoyleSports, Hills

Jordan Smith
1.5 points each way 50-1 Coral, Ladbrokes

Bernd Wiesberger
1 pt each way 66-1 Betfair, Paddy Power

Frederic Lacroix
1 pt each way 90-1 Betfair, Paddy Power

BMW PGA Championship Preview

Just like at the US Open in June, Rory McIlroy was left to rue what might have been at the Irish Open as two late bogeys opened the door for Rasmus Hojgaard to win at Royal County Down, and the world number three must pull himself together for the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth.

Although McIlroy, who won on the Surrey track a decade ago, is playing well, he is failing to cross the finish line and his price tag may be too low to triumph again on one of the DP World Tour’s premier events.

Fellow Ryder Cup star Tommy Fleetwood looks similarly short, given he has just two top-10s in 12 course visits, and while Adam Scott and Shane Lowry are interesting, the value could lie a little further down the list in what could prove to be an open contest.

Pro tip

Matteo Manassero 33-1

There was a time when the name Matteo Manassero was on the lips of every European golf fan, as he was tipped to become one of the game’s greatest players.

The Italian was just 16 when he finished 13th at the 2009 Open and then became the youngest winner in European Tour history by triumphing at the Castello Masters the following year.

Wentworth was the scene of his greatest triumph when he won the PGA Championship in 2013 in a playoff, but the young prodigy was unable to continue from there, retreating to the Alps and the Challenge Tours in order to earn a living from the game.

It was thought that few people would hear of him, but suddenly this year he is knocking on the door of the top 100 in the world rankings again after being galvanised by his victory at the Jonsson Workwear Open in South Africa in March.

Manassero has not rested there and has since finished fifth at the Indian Open, seventh at the KLM Open, tenth at the Italian Open, sixth at the British Masters and then third at the Irish Open last week.

His ball striking was particularly impressive and as a player ranked 15th in strokes gained: tee to green and fifth in approach, he has the vital skills to succeed again at Wentworth.

Back at the scene of his greatest victory, Manassero can truly signal his return to form and people can start talking about him as one of the stars of European golf.

Next best bet

Jordan Smith 50-1

Seven of the last 15 PGA Championships have been won by Englishmen and Jordan Smith could be the latest to add his name to the list.

The 31-year-old from Wiltshire, who is just above Manassero in the world rankings at 100, has returned to decent form and four solid rides saw him share seventh place at Royal County Down.

He was 12th at the European Masters the previous week when a third-round 77 hurt his chances – his other rounds were 66, 65 and 67 – while he had a similar result at the British Masters at the Belfry.

No player has been as adept at finding greens in regulation at the DPWT this season and his finishes of 13th off the tee and from tee to green should help him face a tough challenge. He can improve on the 13th place he posted in 2020, which was the best of six efforts at the course.

Other selections

Bernd Wiesberger 66-1

Frederic Lacroix 90-1

Two other players represent decent value in this week’s table.

Austria’s Bernd Wiesberger has failed to add to his tally of eight DPWT titles since returning from the LIV Tour earlier this year, but he has been a model of consistency.

Last week’s Irish Open was one to forget as he finished 63rd despite a second-round 66, but it was only the fourth time in his last 15 tournaments that he has failed to finish in the top 25.

If he can get his putter working, the fifth-ranked player from tee to green and fourth on approach can be a factor.

French challenger Frederic Lacroix won the Danish Championship at the end of August, a week after finishing third at the Czech Masters and his finishes of tenth from tee to green and 19th on the approach suggest he can do much better than the 65th he posted in his only appearance on the course two years ago.

Lacroix, who was a regular contender this time last year on the Challenge Tour, finished 17th at Royal County Down where he was defeated by a 78 in the third round, but a 66 on Sunday will have lifted his spirits and he could have a good week.

BMW PGA Championship Course Guide

Course West Course, Wentworth Club, Virginia Water, Surrey
Prize money $9 million ($1.5 million for the winner)
Length 7,627 meters
By 72 – four by five, ten by four, four by three
Field 144 The cut Top 65 matches and ties advance to weekend
Top ranked players on the field (world ranking in parentheses) Rory McIlroy (3), Tommy Fleetwood (12), Robert MacIntyre (16), Adam Scott (17), Aaron Rai (22)
Course files – 72 holes 267 Byeong Hun An (2015) 18 holes 62 Robert Karlsson (2010), Thomas Björn (2014), Alex Noren (2017)
The winners of the course participate (strokeplay) Luke Donald (twice), Byeong Hun An, Matteo Manassero, Rory McIlroy, Francesco Molinari, Danny Willett, Billy Horschel, Shane Lowry, Ryan Fox
When to bet Thursday at 7am
When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 8.30am on Thursday
Last week – Irish Open 1 R Hojgaard 25-1, 2 R McIlroy 13-2, 3 M Manassero 50-1, 4 D Brown 175-1, T5 G Forrest 275-1, R MacIntyre 18-1
Type of course Park
Course Overview Wentworth is the spiritual home of what was once the European Tour and has hosted the PGA Championship since 1984. It was also home to the World Match Play from 1964 to 2007. The tournament was played in May before being moved to September five years ago. The greens were reseeded with bentgrass in 2017 and the putting surfaces are fast. Trees line many fairways and a number of doglegs mean that wayward driving can be problematic. The course finishes with two par-fives, the last of which contains a greenside water hazard that can produce drama on Sundays.
Last year’s story New Zealand’s Ryan Fox finished with a 67 to beat local hopes Tyrrell Hatton and Aaron Rai by one stroke.
Weather forecast The tournament is set to kick off in glorious sunshine on Thursday, with a windy afternoon, while rain is expected overnight before the final round. Temperatures are expected to be around 22°C.
Type of player suited to the challenge Wentworth is a great test of course management and finding the right areas on the fairways to attack the slippery greens is a must.
Key attribute Precision

Key statistic of the BMW PGA Championship

Eight of last year’s top nine players were ranked in the top 10 in strokes gained: tee to green

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