LDP leadership race: Ishiba Shigeru wins

The Liberal Democratic Party of Japan chose its new leader, Ishiba Shigeru, on Friday. It was a tough race, with nine candidates running. From the start, two candidates, Koizumi Shinjiro and Ishiba Shigeru, were clear favorites among party supporters as well as the public.

By the end of the two-week campaign, a third candidate had emerged – Takaichi Sanae – to challenge them both. In fact, Takaichi came out on top in the first round of voting, with Ishiba in second place. Seven hundred and thirty-six votes were up for grabs, half coming from party members across the country and the other half from lawmakers. Takaichi garnered 109 votes from the rank-and-file and 72 Diet members, for a total of 181 votes. Ishiba, a consistent favorite throughout the race among regional party members, enjoyed less support from lawmakers and came in second with 154 votes.

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Ishiba has struggled in the past to attract votes from his fellow Diet members, but this time, his fifth attempt at the LDP presidency, he prevailed. The result of the second round was 215 votes to 194, revealing differences within the party over the choice.

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This election aimed to shake up the LDP and present Japanese voters with a new face and a renewed commitment to transparency and accountability. In fact, Prime Minister Kishida Fumio resigned so that the LDP could overcome public distrust caused by two successive scandals. At the press conference following his victory, Ishiba reiterated his campaign promise: to protect the rules, to protect Japan, and to protect the Japanese people.

On October 1, the Diet will hold a vote to elect Ishiba Shigeru as the next Prime Minister of Japan. He will then form a Cabinet.

Foreign policy and defense played an important role in the LDP campaign, revealing how focused Japan’s political leaders are on their security. Two questions sparked many comments. The first was how Japan should improve its defense preparedness. The possibility of a crisis in the Taiwan Strait was widely discussed during a debate on Fuji Television. Ishiba, a former defense minister, bluntly explained that Japan needs to study various contingencies and the capabilities it might need to mobilize in a crisis.

Just before the campaign began, Ishiba had visited Taiwan and met with President Lai Ching-te to discuss the cross-Strait situation and Japan-Taiwan relations. Likewise, the debate referenced Chinese pressure on the Philippines and what, if anything, Japan should do. Here again, Ishiba and others saw an opportunity for cooperation within the alliance, but there has been less interest in direct military involvement in a crisis in the South China Sea.

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Ishiba made headlines during the campaign for his suggestion that Japan should consider joining an Asia-NATO-style agreement. He suggested that Japan might join ANZUS, but the bulk of his comments were less about which powers Japan might partner with and more about the idea that it was time for Tokyo to consider the required reciprocity in a collective security agreement.

Second, Ishiba had very specific ideas about necessary revisions to the status of forces agreement that governs the U.S. military presence in Japan. Believing that the time had come to adapt the bilateral agreement, Ishiba suggested that it would be a priority for his cabinet. Additionally, during his stay in Okinawa, Ishiba also argued that now is the time to jointly use the bases so that the Japanese government can directly manage interactions between residents and military forces on the bases.

A second foreign policy focal point of the campaign was the Japanese response to the death of a ten-year-old Japanese child while his mother accompanied him to school in Shenzhen on September 18. Chinese authorities claimed it was a chance incident, but it happened. on the anniversary of the 1931 Mukden Incident which led to the Second Sino-Japanese War. The exposure of Japanese companies in China remains considerable. According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in 2023, more than 101,786 Japanese resided in China. In January this year, members of the Keidanren (Japan Business Federation) met with Chinese Premier Li Qiang in Beijing, a first since 2019, suggesting an improving atmosphere for trade. But following these attacks, Japanese companies announced measures to help Japanese families leave China.

Foreign Minister Kamikawa Yōko, herself a party presidential candidate, met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in New York on September 23 at the United Nations General Assembly to discuss the killing and its aftermath . She urged Wang Yi to take measures to ensure the safety of Japanese citizens living in China.

A series of military interactions between Japan and China, as well as Russia, have sparked concern in Japan and provided the backdrop for renewed discussions about how the Self-Defense Forces respond to intruders . The list of incidents over the past month is long. Chinese and Russian incursions into Japanese airspace have provoked protests from the Japanese government. A Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force destroyer also “inadvertently” ventured into Chinese waters. China launched an ICBM test in the Pacific Ocean without prior notification to the Japanese government.

Ishiba’s thoughts on how to deal with this growing military pressure on Japan from its neighbors are very important. Here Ishiba was explicit and detailed. He supports what would now constitute a change in the rules of engagement for the defense of Japanese territory. Claiming that the SDF has largely acted as a law enforcement agency, Ishiba said it was time it was allowed to fire warning shots at any foreign army that intrudes into the airspace and the waters of Japan. Here, Ishiba will have others, including Takaichi Sanae and Kobayashi Takayuki, who will want to see the SDF given the authority to offer a firm response to foreign military challenges.

On October 1, Ishiba Shigeru will become the next Japanese Prime Minister and will immediately form his cabinet. At least some of the eight others who campaigned for the presidency are likely to move into critical cabinet positions. The defense and foreign policy portfolios will be important, but Ishiba himself will likely have strong ideas about how he wants to keep Japan safe.

Beyond that, Ishiba will have to decide when his party should call the next election. Expectations are high that early elections will be held in October to take advantage of the momentum generated by party elections. Ishiba’s experience as party general secretary, who regained public trust after the DPJ, will help in this regard, as will his reputation for being immune to fundraising scandals. Public trust in the party has declined again and the LDP will need to convince voters that it is (once again) ready to change its ways.

However, the LDP will face a different race this time. On September 23, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan elected former Prime Minister Noda Yoshihiko as its new leader in an effort to attract more centrist conservatives frustrated with the LDP. Osaka’s once-feared Ishin no Kai party blew its lead by losing a by-election in its own stronghold. Finally, the LDP’s junior partner, Komeito, also decided that the time was right for new leadership. On September 28, Ishii Keiichi, who is running unopposed, is expected to succeed Yamaguchi Natsuo, the architect of the Komeito-LDP coalition, to chart his party’s path forward.

And, of course, it is possible to envision political change here in the United States. Although this topic received surprisingly little attention in the LDP campaign, future Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru will need to consider how best to work with the next president of the United States.