US Senate: Alsobrooks stresses party while Hogan vows independence

In one of Democrat Angela Alsobrooks’ ads for her US Senate campaign, she’s barely featured at all. Instead, for 27 seconds, the ad shows clips of her opponent, Larry Hogan, saying over and over that he’s a Republican.

Hogan, meanwhile, seems to avoid the party label as much as possible in his ads, mail and on the campaign trail, instead focusing on his two terms as governor and professing that he’ll be an independent voice in Washington. His latest ad is called “100″ and all that he’ll be “representing the center, looking out for Maryland” if elected to the Senate.

And in a new campaign statement, Hogan pledges: “I will be an independent swing vote who will stand up to both parties and work with anyone who truly wants to get things done.”

The two campaigns and their supporters are taking decidedly different strategies in a race that could be as close as a dead heat between Alsobrooks and Hogan, depending on which poll you believe.

Democrats and Alsobrooks are making the case that race is about party politics and who will control the Senate — suggesting that Alsobrooks, as a Democrat, will ensure that the Senate considers issues like protecting abortion access and supporting working families.

Republicans and Hogan are stressing the idea that Hogan will fight against gridlock in Washington, and that he’ll make decisions in the interests of Marylanders, not party leaders.

The divergent messaging strategies reflect the political reality in Maryland, where Democrats typically dominate in races for federal offices but also where Hogan has been a uniquely popular and successful Republican.

Control of the US Senate could be at stake in this election, as Maryland is among a handful of states that could decide which party has the majority. Hogan is fighting upstream to win statewide for a third time, and — in a congressional race — his party is one reason why as Maryland voters are more likely to consider the national implications.

Democrats currently hold a slim 50-49 advantage in the Senate with, one independent.

The Republican Party’s nominee for president this year, former President Donald Trump, is deeply unpopular in Maryland. So it makes sense for Hogan to continue to decouple himself from Trump and the party leadership, said Mileah Kromer, director of the University of Maryland, Baltimore County’s Institute of Politics.

“You can’t win or even come in the ballpark of winning if you are a Trump-aligned Republican,” Kromer said.

Less than one-quarter of Maryland voters are Republicans to begin with, and a recent poll had Trump losing in Maryland to Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris in a head-to-head matchup by more than 30 percentage points.

“They’re just talking about, I’m a typical MAGA Republican and I’m going to destroy everything that they care about,” Hogan said after a recent visit to a school in Prince George’s County. “My message is about: ‘Hey, nobody stood up to my party more than I have over the past eight years. I’m going to be a key voice to try to bring people to the middle and get things done.’”

Hogan’s black campaign bus sports slogans including “Strong Independent Leadership” and “Send A Message To Washington!”

Hogan has adopted some policy positions at odds with his party, including opposing a national abortion ban and supporting more access to abortion care than most in the GOP. As governor, though, he vetoed a bill to allow more medical professionals to provide abortion care and held back money for training providers.

The last two times Trump ran for president, Hogan did not vote for him and he says he won’t vote for Trump this year, either. The two were often at odds during the height of the coronavirus pandemic, when Trump was president and Hogan was governor and chair of the National Governors Association.

Trump did offer a warm endorsement of Hogan in the race, though Hogan has not celebrated or touted it.

“I don’t know that the other campaign’s talking about anything except that, ‘He’s a bad Republican.’ And most people in Maryland already know me, and they’re like: ‘He doesn’t seem like one of those,’” Hogan said.

While Hogan professes independence from Republicans, he has said that he will caucus with Republicans in the Senate if he’s elected. Democrats and Alsobrooks supporters argue that means Hogan will need to follow the directives from Republican leadership — and as a freshman senator, he may not be able to buck the leaders and vote against the party line, especially if the GOP has the majority.

Democrats are eager to remind voters that Hogan was recruited to run by Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell to help that party gain power. “They know he could be the 51st seat,” Maryland Democratic Party Executive Director Karen Darkes said at an event last month.

And Hogan’s declaration of independence has not stopped him from taking money and support from national Republicans.

One of his ads this summer that paints him as an “independent leader” was paid for jointly by Hogan’s campaign and the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which works to elect Republicans to the Senate.

“We’re one of the highest-priority races for the NRSC,” Hogan told reporters earlier this summer.

National Democrats, likewise, are focusing on Alsobrooks, hoping she can maintain Democratic control of the seat that’s been held by US Sen. Ben Cardin since the 2006 election.

Standing before a crowd of Morgan State University students recently, Alsobrooks outlined the stakes.

Reproductive freedom, LGBTQ rights, voting rights — those are all on the ballot this fall, Alsobrooks told the students. And Democrats, Alsobrooks said, are the ones who can deliver on those issues.

“In this election, the choices are very clear: I am running for Senate and I’m running in the party that’s led by Kamala Harris,” Alsobrooks said. “There’s another opponent in the race, and he’s running for the Senate in a party that’s led by Donald Trump. And I have to tell you that the two of them have totally different views of what America looks like.”

Alsobrooks urged the students to vote and be the “decision makers” in the election.

“I ask you for your support as I run for US Senate to make sure that we maintain a majority in the Senate,” Alsobrooks said. “Whoever has the majority controls the agenda, and that’s going to be really important.”

That message was on display nearby on Hillen Road, where the median was dotted with blue and green campaign signs reading: “Harris, Alsobrooks, Vote For The Democrats.”

And this past weekend, Alsobrooks launched a “Defend Our Majority Tour” with Gov. Wes Moore and other Democrats, making plain their goal of retaining the Democratic majority in the Senate.

Kromer, the political science professor, noted that the Alsobrooks camp is both pushing the Senate control message and introducing the candidate to voters. Alsobrooks may have gotten a bump in late August with her prime-time speech at the Democratic National Convention, in which she shared part of her personal story, including the mentorship she’s received from Harris.

“They’re going to use the party-control message, it is important and a fundamental part of the race,” Kromer said. “But she is also a really good candidate.”

A key challenge for Alsobrooks is that she’s not well-known across the state, as a former prosecutor now in her second term as Prince George’s County executive.

A recent poll from AARP Maryland showed that 43% of those surveyed could not say whether they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of her. Even 35% of Democrats polled had no opinion either way.

Kromer said the Alsobrooks campaign may rely on their strategy from her primary race against US Rep. David Trone, who poured $63 million of his personal wealth into his run, massively outspending her. Alsobrooks ramped up her campaign in the final weeks with a blitz of ads and appearances, and ended up beating Trone despite trailing in polls for months prior.

“Once people got to know her, they liked her,” Kromer said. “She bested someone who put $63 million in. Regardless of everything else going on, she herself is formidable. Hogan is great, too.”