Are the Nats willing to spend again to fill out the young team?

It seems a bit like ancient history at this point, but it’s worth remembering that the Nationals were consistently one of the biggest spending clubs in baseball for nearly a decade. For nine consecutive seasons from 2013 to 2021, their year-end payroll ranked among the top 10 in the majors, peaking in 2019 at more than $205 million (the fourth highest in the sport).

That all changed in July 2021 when the franchise demolished its aging roster and embarked on a rebuild that continues to this day. The Nats ranked 18th in year-end payroll in 2022, 22nd in 2023 and 24th this season, according to numbers calculated by Spotrac.

The organization’s approach over the past three offseasons was clear: The major league roster would be filled with short-term fixes while everyone waited for a revamped farm system to begin producing the next wave of big leaguers. The Nationals spent a total of $22.25 million on major league free agents before the 2022 season, another $22.25 million starting in 2023 and just $9.25 million starting this season. Only one player signed a guaranteed contract over several years: Trevor Williams (two years, $13 million).

Although frustrating to many and subject to much criticism, the approach was based on real baseball logic: It didn’t make sense to spend big money on free agents until enough prospects make it to the major leagues and the team is ready to actually “go for it” again.

This logic has been justified each of the last three winters. It’s not justified this time.

Even though the Nationals’ rebuild isn’t complete, enough key elements are now in place at the major league level to warrant real supplementation from outside.

The Nats believe they have a good, young corps of position players, headlined by James Wood, Dylan Crews, CJ Abrams and Luis Garcia Jr. They are still missing a proven power hitter who could be plugged into the middle of the lineup and launched over 25 home runs.

The Nats figure to have a good, young starting pitching corps, headlined by MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin, DJ Herz and Mitchell Parker, with Cade Cavalli and Josiah Gray hopefully returning from injury to contribute at some point. given during the 2025 season. They still lack a proven frontline starter who could be counted on for 175+ innings and an ERA below 3.50.

There is also room for experienced help in the bullpen, and ideally another experienced bat as well. But a big power hitter (preferably a first baseman) and a quality starting pitcher are clearly the top priorities for this winter. And there will be a number of them available via free agency, if the Nationals are willing to dive back into that market.

“I think it’s time to spend at some point,” general manager Mike Rizzo said last week when asked the question. “We will see who is available and what possibilities we have. But I think it’s time for us to add to the roster, because we have a good group of young guys, and veteran leadership, I think, is warranted.

Rizzo, of course, has little to say on the matter. He may believe it’s time to spend a lot of money again, but he doesn’t set the salary budget. This is coming from the top, from an ownership group that has yet to publicly announce its intentions this winter.

Principal owner Mark Lerner, who rarely grants interviews, told team broadcaster Dan Kolko at the end of the 2023 season that he was letting Rizzo dictate his offseason plans and suggested the general manager’s plan would involve an increase in spending after the 2024 season.

“I guess he’ll say, ‘No, give it another year.’ Let’s get some of these kids here and be productive, then you’ll take the next step,” Lerner said at the time. “Whatever he wants, he knows he has the resources, and he has always had the resources since the day we took over this team, to build a winner. I don’t remember that in all these years, on the one hand, he was refused for anything.

It’s not yet clear whether ownership has presented Rizzo with a budget for 2025; these meetings generally take place after the season. Within the organization there is a wide range of expectations for how this will play out. Some think payroll will increase significantly, others think it will increase modestly, and some are skeptical it will increase.

There’s not much in the books yet. With Patrick Corbin and Williams’ contracts expiring and Stephen Strasburg retiring (although he’s still getting paid), only one player currently under club control is expected to earn more than $5 million next season: closer Kyle Finnegan, who MLB Trade Rumors recently predicted to win. earning $8.6 million via arbitration. The only player with a salary already guaranteed for 2025 is Keibert Ruiz, who will earn a modest $5 million in the third year of his eight-year, $50 million contract.

So there should be enough space to work. Now it’s up to Lerner (and his family) to make the commitment he suggested we make when the time comes, and up to Rizzo to use all the resources he’s given to make the appropriate additions to a list that everyone expects to be good enough to begin with. win again in 2025.