Homicides in New York doubled between August and September, but still on a downward trend

New York City saw twice as many homicides in September as in August — a significant increase, but one that experts and police officials say is not necessarily indicative of broader trends.

NYPD data shows 30 people were killed citywide in September, far higher than the record number of 15 homicides reported in August.

These figures represent what statisticians call a “reversion to the mean” – or return to normal – and highlight just how low August’s numbers were. The 30 homicides represent a decrease from the 34 homicides in September 2023 and the 43 homicides in September 2022, according to NYPD data.

Of the September homicide victims, 27 were men, two were women and one was missing in NYPD data. Twenty-two of the victims were shot, five were killed by stabbings and two died from fatal stabbings, the data shows.

Homicides are still down more than 11% citywide compared to the same time last year, according to the NYPD’s CompStat database. Shooting incidents and casualties also declined by single-digit percentages.

Criminologists and police officials caution against viewing the monthly increase as cause for alarm.

Homicide rates have long served as a reliable indicator of crime in a given city because they are the crime least likely to go unreported, said Fritz Umbach, a professor and historical criminologist at John Jay College of Criminal Justice from CUNY, “but in New York, as reliable as the numbers are…they are no longer representative.

“In the 1990s, when New York had 2,200 murders per year, the percentage changes in the number of murders were significant,” Umbach said. But today, New York’s murder numbers are so low that monthly fluctuations like the one from August to September can skew percentage changes and are not reflected in broader crime trends, he said. he declared.

Crimes increasing this year, according to CompStat, are rape (up 14% citywide compared to the same time last year), felonious assault (up 5%) and robbery ( up 1%).

“Some crimes are increasing, some are decreasing,” Umbach said. “This is another reason why looking at murders alone probably doesn’t tell you much about the state of crime in New York.”

Rapes and robberies previously declined from 2022 to 2023, according to NYPD data. But criminal assaults — the types of attacks likely to permanently injure or disfigure someone — have steadily increased every year since 2020, and researchers say that may be more likely to put New Yorkers at risk.

“This is a crime that New Yorkers are far more likely to witness in their daily lives than a murder,” Umbach said.

Homicide data also shows that many killings were concentrated in specific neighborhoods and do not represent a citywide phenomenon.

Juan Lluverez, Rafael Vasquez, Mahmudo Jabbi and Leslie Sanchez were all killed in the Bronx’s 46th Precinct, which includes the neighborhoods of Fordham, University Heights, Morris Heights and Mount Hope. The region has bucked citywide trends: Murders there are up more than 100% this year, with 23 people killed so far in 2024, compared to 11 in 2023.

CompStat data also shows that murders and shootings have increased significantly in Brooklyn’s 77th Precinct, where Donnell Thomas died in a shooting outside his home and Denzel Chan was shot to death during the West Indian parade.

But the numbers remain relatively low: 10 people have been murdered at the station so far this year, well below the 20 people killed there in 2020.

Gothamist reported this year that most shootings in the city are concentrated in specific neighborhoods, where local rivalries contribute to much of the exchange of violence.

The last homicide of September

Blood was still drying on the playground at NYCHA’s Lafayette Gardens complex, on the border of Bed-Stuy and Clinton Hill, when the New York Police Department sent out an email alert about a homicide. This was the last homicide in the city in September.

Shaquille Davis, 32, was shot Monday around 5:20 p.m. while meeting friends on his way home from his construction job, according to his mother Denise Davis. Two of the men he was with were also injured by a hail of bullets.

“He was not a street child. He worked to take care of his son, to be there for his son. Like he’s supposed to,” Denise Davis said through tears. “He didn’t deserve this. It wasn’t made for him. But it happened to him.

As of Friday, police still had not made an arrest in Davis’ killing and had no description of the suspect. And for Denise Davis, the city’s declining homicide rates don’t seem to be making a difference in her neighborhood.

“Back then we always had a cop here. On the rhythm. And he got along well with people in the community,” she said. “We could talk to him about things.” If anything happened, we would let him know. But now people are so afraid to talk to the police because you can’t talk to the police.

The NYPD did not immediately respond to a request for comment on whether its policing strategies at the housing complex had changed.

As Denise Davis spoke about grieving her son, she said she also believed more programs aimed at youth in the community could help deter them from participating in violent acts.

“Find something these young people can get involved in…. (it) keeps their minds active instead of letting someone else manipulate them into doing their dirty work,” she said.