‘Nostradamus’ Allan Lichtman blames disinformation and Elon Musk for wrong predictions in US presidential polls

Last updated:Nov 14, 2024 12:30 IST

Allan Lichtman uses an index model that evaluates thirteen true-false statements about the party of the incumbent president.

Allan Lichtman has been predicting the US polls since 1984. (Photo Credits: YouTube)

Allan Lichtman, recognized as the ‘Nostradamus’ of the US presidential elections, has failed to predict the outcome of the recent polls. As a professor at an American university, Lichtman managed to predict nine of the last ten American elections. But his prediction came true This time he predicted that Kamala Harris would win this year’s elections to become the 47th US president. However, the former vice president lost to Donald Trump of the Republican Party, who secured the presidency with the magic numbers of 270 electoral votes.

Lichtman pointed the finger at the “explosion” of disinformation and billionaire Elon Musk after his prediction about the election results turned out to be inaccurate. The historian-political scientist shared his thoughts on the subject during an interaction with News Nation.

Lichtman did not mince his words when criticizing conservative media platforms that reportedly invested millions to promote Trump’s election campaigns. “Number one: disinformation. There has always been disinformation, but disinformation has exploded to an unprecedented degree. You talked about an election of complaints, but many of those complaints came from disinformation,” he told the newspaper.

Lichtman further alleged that Elon Musk, a close friend of Donald Trump, had used his social media platform X to portray the president-elect in a good light. Musk publicly showed his support for Trump and also attended some of his campaign rallies. According to Lotchman, the Tesla CEO was able to sabotage issues such as immigration, hurricane relief and the war in Ukraine by spreading misinformation through his microblogging site.

“We saw something brand new this time: billionaire Elon Musk put his thumb on the scale. It has been reported that his misinformation has had billions, literally billions of views and has spread to every aspect of this election,” Lichtman explained.

Lichtman spent a lot of time analyzing the country’s political landscape before making his prediction about the election results. He uses an index model known as the ‘Keys to the White House’. The result that emerges is mainly based on thirteen true-false statements about the party of the incumbent president. If six of these turn out to be false, the opposition is likely to win.

“The premise of the keys is that a rational, pragmatic electorate decides whether the White House party has governed well enough to get four more years. But if the positions of the White House party are controlled by disinformation, driven primarily by those so wealthy that they have extraordinary influence beyond anyone else, then perhaps the premise of the Keys needs to be changed.” Lichtman said.

The experienced political scientist has been doing this work since 1984. He even predicted the impeachment of Donald Trump during his first term. His prediction had come true twice: first in December 2019 and then in January 2021.