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Commanders vs. Eagles predictions, picks and best bets for TNF Week 11: Fly, Eagles, Fly?

Posted on by Pranco
Commanders vs. Eagles predictions, picks and best bets for TNF Week 11: Fly, Eagles, Fly?

The NFC East is famously the most up-and-down NFL division. No team has won a championship since the Philadelphia Eagles in 2003-04 (that streak will likely continue during Dallas’ season, unless it’s over). This week’s Thursday Night Football game will go a long way in deciding who wins the East this year.

The Eagles (7-2) enter Week 11 with a one-game lead over the Washington Commanders (7-3) in the loss column. It makes for an intriguing matchup as the Commanders, powered by rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, visit Philadelphia to take on the Eagles on NFL Thursday Night Football.

The Eagles (5-4 ATS) have won five in a row. They are 3.5-point favorites over the Commanders (7-2-1 ATS). The over/under is 49 or 49.5 points according to the latest data NFL Week 11 Oddsmarking the second-highest total on the slate this week. Here are my expert predictions of Commanders vs. Eagles and the best bets for TNF Week 11.

Commanders vs. Eagles predictions and best bets for TNF

Jayden Daniels has been electric this season and Commanders fans are excited about the future. As great as he has been, the formula for beating Daniels and Washington may have finally been revealed last week. The Steelers dominated the time of possession, 36 minutes to 24, to keep the ball out of Daniels’ hands. The idea is simple: If Daniels doesn’t have the ball, he can’t make dazzling plays that take his team to the next level.

The Eagles are perfectly equipped to do what Pittsburgh did. Behind running back Saquon Barkley, they have a strong offense that should have even more success against Washington’s weak offense.

When Pittsburgh QB Russell Wilson was called upon to make a play last week, he did so. That’s an area where Philadelphia QB Jalen Hurts excels. The path for the Eagles to win is obvious. If you side with Philly, wait to see if the point spread drops to three points as this should be a tight division game.

Then there’s this trend: Washington coach Dan Quinn is 0-10 even and 1-9 ATS coming off a painful loss. This shows that Quinn has not been good at getting his team back on track.

Assuming the Eagles play this game on their terms, Barkley will pile on the yardage. His rushing yardage support is one of the greatest you’ll find, but considering Washington is giving up an average of 4.8 yards per carry, this is a perfect situation for him to run wild and free.

He is averaging 110.1 rushing yards per game. He has surpassed 91.5 rushing yards in six of nine games. He might have done it last week, but he picked up an injury in the first half and had limited touches even though he returned to the game.

As great as Barkley has been, it hasn’t affected the production of wide receiver AJ Brown. Brown remains one of the most consistent players in the NFL. He showed that again last week with seven receptions for 109 yards.

Brown has at least 84 receiving yards in five of the six games he has played. With an average of 19.8 yards per reception, he would need five receptions to surpass that total. He has done that in five of the six games.

Commanders vs. Eagles moneyline odds analysis

Why Philadelphia could win as a favorite

Best odds: -174 at FanDuel Sportsbook

With a five-game win streak, the Eagles are among the most popular teams in the NFL. They will benefit from staying home during this short week. Daniels hasn’t had to play on short rest this season, so he may not be ready for the rigors this brings.

The Eagles’ biggest advantage will be the running game. It should enable them to set the tone early. They should continue to follow a positive game script as long as they don’t trail by double digits in the first quarter. If that happens, they will be among the hardest teams to beat in the league.

Why Washington could win as an underdog

Best odds: +162 at Caesars Sportsbook

Daniels is coming off one of the worst games of his young career, and the Commanders still almost won. If he plays better against Philadelphia, the Commanders will be in this until the end.

The good news for Washington is that Philadelphia’s defense is worse than Pittsburgh’s. The Eagles have been good on defense, but have only played one team (Cincinnati) with a strong offense during their win streak.

Daniels presents a different challenge than that of Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow, so the Eagles may not be ready for it. If Daniels gets going early and can build momentum, the commanders can ease the anxiety.