Could a potential Hurricane Sara hit South Florida in November?

How much time Tropical Storm Sara spends winding its way across the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend will determine its strength and path.

A somewhat rare November storm system Gathering steam in the Caribbean Sea, which developed into Tropical Storm Sara on Thursday, will slowly gain more tropical ammunition in the abnormally warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico before making a sharp right turn and aiming dead-on towards Florida go.

What does all that mean for storm-weary Floridians? Forecasters say it remains more of a watch and not a concern situation.

As of Thursday afternoon, Sara had sustained winds of 40 miles per hour and was about 200 miles east-southeast of Isla Guanaja, Honduras, heading west, according to the National Hurricane Center. It is considered a tropical storm if the wind speed is at least 60 km per hour. That mountainous region of Honduras and Nicaragua will significantly reduce wind circulation, something that was not evident on Wednesday.

“A storm that spends more time over land will lose intensity,” AccuWeather Senior Director of Forecast Operations Dan DePodwin said Thursday morning. “The big question is how much time it will spend over land, which will limit wind intensity.”

The difference, DePodwin said, could be that Sara “becomes a strong tropical storm or a major Category 3 hurricane that forms in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend.”

What is the timeline for Tropical Storm Sara?

Sara is expected to prowl the western Caribbean Sea just north of Nicaragua this weekend before passing over Belize and Guatemala. It will eventually emerge off the west coast of Guatemala in the Bay of Campeche on Monday before moving north.

At that point, forecasters will have a better idea of the storm’s strength and path.

Either way, a high-pressure system from the continental United States is sinking quickly and that, combined with a strong jet stream, will hurl the storm toward Florida, where it will likely arrive sometime Wednesday evening or early Thursday morning. This is where things are still murky.

Models have him going everywhere from the Florida Peninsula all the way south to the Florida Keys. It’s also possible the storm could even dissipate into the Gulf and break up due to the time it spends over land.

However, the latter scenario is not likely, DePodwin said.

“There are two factors that will continue to drive this storm,” he said. “One is the fact that there is plenty of warm water – about 4 to 6 degrees warmer than average – in the Caribbean Sea at a depth of about 90 to 120 meters. The second is the lack of wind shear that would help break the sea .

DePodwin said the likely worst-case scenario for Floridians would be a weak Category 1 hurricane or a strong tropical system that could bring heavy rain and some wind damage.

“The state of Florida does not need any more tropical storms,” he said. “It will only delay the recovery process from the previous storms.”

The major concern for this storm is in Central America, which DePodwin said could turn into a “real humanitarian crisis” due to potential widespread flooding.

The storm will bring “life-threatening” flooding rains of up to 30 inches, the National Hurricane Center warned.

He compared the potential threat of casualties to that of Hurricane Mitch, a storm in late October 1998 that caused more than 11,000 fatalities in Honduras and Nicaragua due to catastrophic flooding and the storm’s slow movement.

Mitch, although a significantly stronger storm, followed a somewhat similar path, eventually making a sharp right turn and hitting Florida as a strong tropical system.

A wild hurricane season is only getting wilder

In November, four hurricanes – Debby, Beryl, Francine, Helene and Milton – caused an estimated $500 billion in damage and economic losses in the United States.

There have now been 18 named storms with 11 hurricanes and of those five were major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). All three figures are above historical averages.

If Sara makes landfall in the United States as a hurricane, it could challenge the last record set by Hurricane Kate, which hit Florida on Nov. 21, 1985, as a Category 2 storm.

Only three hurricanes in November hit Florida:

Yankee Hurricane (1935): A Category 2 hurricane that formed about 220 miles east of Bermuda before finally making landfall near Bal Harbor in Miami-Dade County.
Hurricane Kate (1985): Kate formed northeast of Puerto Rico on November 15, traveled east through the Keys and then turned north before hitting the Florida Panhandle as a Category 2 storm.
Hurricane Nicole (2022): Nicole was an early November storm that made landfall twice in Florida, south of Vero Beach and then off the Gulf Coast near Cedar Key. It crossed the same area of Florida that had been devastated by Hurricane Ian six weeks earlier.

Hurricane season officially ends on November 30, but in the past storms have formed as early as December.

Before the storm threat, a cool front will pass through

Ahead of Sara’s unrest midweek, two cool fronts will work their way through the Treasure Coast and Palm Beach County.

The first, the weaker of the two, arrived Wednesday with a minimal temperature drop. However, the second will come until Friday and Saturday and will bring a bigger drop in temperatures.

This weekend, high temperatures will be in the low 80s and low temperatures will be in the low 60s. Wind speeds will also be lower.

James Coleman is a journalist at The Palm Beach Postpart of the USA TODAY Florida Network. You can reach him at [email protected] and follow him on X (formerly known as Twitter). @JimColeman11. Support our journalism. Subscribe today.