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LSU vs. Texas A&M prediction, picks and best bets

Posted on by Pranco
LSU vs. Texas A&M prediction, picks and best bets

SEC football teams have made so many headlines this season that LSU and Texas A&M have somehow flown under the radar despite being the only two teams still undefeated in the league.

With just one other conference game between ranked teams on Saturday, it’s now time for the No. 8 ranked Tigers and No. 14 Aggies to step into the prime-time spotlight.

Texas A&M will host the game at Kyle Field, and the Aggies are favored by 2.5 points on their home field. The over/under is 53.5 or 54 points.

Keep reading for our LSU vs. Texas A&M prediction, picks and best bets.

LSU vs. Texas A&M predictions and best bets

Football coaches always want balance in the attack. So far this season, LSU’s Brian Kelly is losing that battle.

LSU (6-1 SU, 3-4 ATS) ranks fifth in the SEC in total offense at 450 yards per game, but there is a major discrepancy in the run (128 yards per game) versus the pass (322 ypg ).

Texas A&M, on the other hand, is one of the more balanced offenses in the conference. The Aggies (6-1 SU, 2-5 ATS) are averaging 218 rushing yards per game and 186 passing yards. That rushing offense is the second-best in the SEC.

That offensive balance and the raucous home court crowd will allow Texas A&M to make two or three big plays than LSU. In a tight game, one big action can make the difference.

And then there’s this: since 2017, when two ranked teams faced off, the home team is 182-89 straight (67%).

There’s also a chance that Texas A&M doesn’t need to be evenly matched to win. Its rushing attack matches up very well with LSU’s rushing defense, which allowed 180 rushing yards to Ole Miss and 243 rushing yards to South Carolina.

How many times can LSU survive getting cut by opponents on the ground? If Texas A&M manages to run the ball, points are put on the board.

Sticking with that theme, Texas A&M running back Le’Veon Moss should perform well on Saturday. He has eclipsed 80.5 rushing yards in five of seven games this season. He has rushed for at least 110 yards in three of four SEC games.

LSU vs. Texas A&M moneyline odds analysis

Why Texas A&M could be the favorite to win

Best odds: -135 at BetMGM Sportsbook

Since a loss to Notre Dame in the season opener, Texas A&M has been rolling. The Aggies have won six in a row, including two home victories over SEC teams.

The biggest reason is the running game, which ranks second in the league with an average of 218.6 yards per game. While LSU’s defense hasn’t been good, the Tigers are doing better against the run than the pass. That said, LSU’s run defense still ranks in the bottom half of the SEC rush defense rankings.

If the Aggies can run the ball effectively, they have a great chance of winning, because nothing humbles a defense more than an opponent that can get first downs on big runs.

Why LSU could win as an underdog

Best odds: +115 at Caesars Sportsbook

It’s all about defense for LSU. The Tigers rank 14th out of 16 SEC teams in total defense with 358.6 yards allowed per game. They were better last week in a 34-10 win over Arkansas, when they allowed 278 total yards and a season-low average of 10 points. However, that could have been an outlier.

If LSU has turned the defense around a corner, it will help prevent Texas A&M from making big plays – something the Aggies already don’t do well. That would keep the Kyle Field crowd manageable for LSU.

LSU has already won two SEC road games this season, including one against South Carolina in which it allowed 33 points.