The Wagner Group’s failures in Mali are shaking Africa’s confidence in Putin’s promises

Yet the situation in the countries has worsened, not better, even before Wagner’s high-profile troubles this year.

In the three countries, deaths from political violence will increase by 38 percent in 2023, according to Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), which maps the conflict. The number of civilian deaths rose by almost a fifth.

Wagner’s abuses against the population have also become a powerful rallying cry and recruitment tool for the jihadists fighting against them.

In the worst incident, the United Nations found “strong indications” that Malian troops and “foreign military personnel” killed or summarily executed more than 500 people in the village of Moura in Mali’s Mopti region in March 2022.

Following the massacre at the Algerian border, Wagner has been rumored to have told Mali it wants to scale back more ambitious, exposed operations in remote areas.

‘Powerful player’

“While Russia remains a powerful player in parts of Africa, recent events in the Sahel states have shown that Russia’s armed forces are deeply overstretched and losing credibility,” said Mr Brown.

Lawrence Freedman, emeritus professor of war studies at King’s College London, wrote earlier this month: “There may be an element of schadenfreude in watching Russia fail in a big game against Western interests and become mired in a mess from which it can only free. himself with loss of face.”

But he warned that the failure risks turning the Sahel into a center for extremist violence that could cause problems further afield in West Africa.

Even as the West enjoys Moscow’s troubles, Europe and America are not well positioned to benefit from them.

Relations between the Sahel and France remain fractured, Mr Laessing said.

“No one wants them back and other European countries are also reluctant to fight things,” he said.

Donald Trump inherits a shrinking US diplomatic footprint in Africa, with embassies short-staffed. It is thought that the continent is not high on the new president’s agenda.

Turkey is increasing its influence

But the number of countries that have piled up The painful civil war in Sudan show that there is no shortage of middle-order powers vying for influence in the region, and who could emerge instead.

Turkey, for example, could be in pole position, having spent years expanding its influence and trade across Africa

Ankara has signed military cooperation agreements with more than 25 African countries, supplying Turkish-made weapons including drones, helicopters, training aircraft and armored vehicles.

The hostile attitude towards the sanctions imposed by the West against the country’s military regimes NigerBurkina Faso and Mali has also promoted ties with these countries.

“Turkey’s biggest advantage is its non-colonial past,” a diplomatic source told Reuters last month. “When anti-imperialist leaders look for new partners, they think of us first.”