NFL Week 8 Predictions, Picks: Expert Parlays, Against the Spread Betting

Somehow, the worst DVOA violation in the league against the best is my best play of the week. But that’s the thing – I don’t think these are current Tanning are the league’s worst offense, nor anything close.

Finally our long national one Deshaun Watson nightmare is over. James Winston gets the start, and should finally bring an air of competence to an offense that was sorely lacking. Winston will attack aggressively in the field, something that worked well Joe Flacco last season, and that is a specific weak spot here Raven defense that can play explosive passing all season.

But it’s not just James. The Browns also announced a change at playcaller, with Ken Dorsey finally taking over. This is what I was hoping for before the season when I bet on the Browns as a division long shot (RIP). Dorsey was an excellent playcaller and his style should suit Winston.

Cleveland also gets a healthy offensive line, much more so than at the start of the season, and now star G Wyatt Turner is back as well. And although he is not quite himself yet, star RB plays Nick Chubb is also back.

Cleveland’s entire offense should be improved, and a better offense makes life much easier for this defense that was so good a year ago and has quietly come into shape in recent weeks.

All those adjustments move the Browns from my No. 26 to my No. 19 offense and from 26th to 13th overall in my team rankings. It basically means that the Browns are no longer the Browns, but more like the Steelers, Chargersor even Vikings now without Christian Darrisaw.

That means this team is grossly mispriced in the market.

These rivals hate each other, and the rivalry is usually close. The teams have split the season series in five of the past six seasons, with five of the last seven games ending within six points. The Browns seem terrible so far, but even the bad version has losses by four, four, six and seven points. They’re not good, but they’re hanging around, enough to cover this line even before the offensive improvements.

This is a classic buy-low-sell-high spot. Teams like the Ravens that have scored 25+ in five consecutive years are 42% ATS over the last twenty years, while underdogs that have scored 16 or less in three consecutive years since 2019 are 61% ATS. Lamar Jackson is 42% ATS as an over-field goal favorite, while Jameis Winston is 66% ATS as an over-field goal underdog.

This line rose to Browns +11.5 early in the week when we first talked about buying Cleveland stock on Tuesday’s roundtable podcast. I played at +9.5 and it is still playable up to +8.5 without much loss. I will also set the moneyline at +350. Sounds crazy, but the Ravens have already lost to the Robbers.

This is also a great opportunity to buy low on Browns future with a win total of 3.5. This game is essentially a free roll, and the upcoming schedule comes against the Chargers, SaintsSteelers, Broncosand Steelers again. Those are all pretty similar opponents and likely mean ugly, low-scoring games that the Browns can win. That over 3.5 is a nice escalator in Cleveland if you believe in the changes.

Ravens vs. Browns