Somalia dilemma in financing the next peace mission, Ethiopia’s consequences

Mohamud visited Burundi, Djibouti, Uganda and Kenya to discuss what official reports said was a “smooth transition” from Atmis to the new African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (Aussom), expected to launch in January 2025 to go.

They also said Aussom “must be adequately resourced and noted the importance of exploring all financing options, including Resolution 2719,” as a predictable and sustainable source of funding.

Resolution 2719, adopted in December 2023, provides that African-led peace support operations (PSOs) can tap UN funding for up to 75 percent of their budget needs, solving a perennial problem on the continent surrounding the financing of such missions.

But key members of the UN Security Council have so far been reluctant to open the tap, arguing that the framework needs time to study, especially on how it could be implemented on the continent.

“We recognize that some have advocated applying the framework of UN Security Council Resolution 2719 to the new AU mission. This is not the time or place to apply 2719. We must work closely to ensure that the required mechanisms are fully in place to make a future 2719 mission successful,” said Robert Wood, the US Alternate Representative for Special Political Affairs to the UN. UN.

“We believe, and many partners agree, that we should avoid premature adoption of the framework, which would undermine its credibility. Successful implementation will be critical to maintaining international confidence and support for this instrument in the long term,” he said at the UN Security Council briefing in Somalia on October 3.

The East African understands that the US and other partners want the 2719 to be implemented from 2026. A source said this would allow experts from the African Union and the UN to review the modalities, including how to categorize missions eligible for funding.

In the meantime, the official says there are options to extend Atmis for another two months, relying on the only available funding from the European Union.

Earlier this year, the AU and UN agreed on a roadmap for implementing the resolution. The timelines seen by The EastAfrican indicate that full implementation is not possible until after August 2025, although experts should have identified the budgetary needs for implementing the resolution, including specific missions, before the end of the year.

The resolution allows the African Union to apply for funding, but the UN decides on a case-by-case basis. The AU has argued that UN support for local missions is critical as the union understands the need to include components.

“A well-funded peace and security architecture is not simply an African priority, it is a global public good,” says the joint AU-UN roadmap. “A holistic approach to peace operations in Africa is crucial. While United Nations peacekeeping operations remain important instruments for promoting and maintaining peace and security, there are clear doctrinal, political and operational effectiveness arguments in favor of AU PSOs.”

But AU peace support operations depend on the relationships between the host country and the contributing forces. Under the Aussom Concept of Operations, the Troop Contributing Countries (TCCs) will now be known as Troop Partner States (TPS).

This week, Somalia said it had lost confidence in Ethiopia to be part of future peacekeeping missions in Mogadishu.

In a statement on Wednesday, Somalia’s Foreign Ministry said it will choose which countries will contribute troops to Aussom from January 2025.

“Ethiopia’s recent unilateral actions, including an illegal agreement with the northern region of Somalia, violate our sovereignty and undermine the trust essential to peacekeeping,” the statement said.

“Ethiopian deployments in the past have resulted in increased Al-Shabaab activity and little development. This requires a more strategic selection of force partners to ensure Aussom aligns with Somalia’s security and development goals.”

While Mogadishu was not categorical on Wednesday on whether Ethiopia would send troops at all, Somali Foreign Minister Ahmed Moalim Fiqi had indicated last month that Addis Ababa would not be part of the new formation, accusing it of violating the Somali territorial integrity.

The row arose in January after Ethiopia signed a memorandum with Somaliland, a breakaway region of Somalia that declared independence in 1991 but is not yet recognized as such globally.

The MoU was never made public, but officials claimed it would give Ethiopia access to the sea for a naval base in Somaliland in exchange for recognition of Somaliland’s independence.

Mogadishu says Ethiopia’s decision to provide land to Somaliland for the construction of a diplomatic mission in Addis Ababa, as well as the supply of weapons to the Puntland region, has further exacerbated the damage.

“The decision on troop contributions must be in line with Somalia’s national interests and the preservation of its sovereignty,” Somalia said. “We remain committed to working with the African Union, the United Nations and the European Union on Aussom, with Somalia leading the selection of partners that respect our sovereignty. Somalia will not compromise when it comes to decisions that affect Somalia’s future and security.”

Yusuf Hassan, a Kenyan lawmaker for Kamukunji constituency and member of the National Assembly’s Defense, Intelligence and Foreign Relations Committee, said the dispute between the two countries should be easy to resolve.

“The conflict between Somalia and Ethiopia is an artificial conflict that can be avoided. Ethiopia must respect Somalia’s sovereignty. If they have to work with Somalia at all, they have to do it with a recognized government in Mogadishu,” Hassan said during the HornTalk, a weekly session on the politics of the Horn of Africa organized by the Africa Policy Institute, a think tank. in Nairobi.

“If there has to be conflict, there will be no winners. It will lead to mutual destruction. We must find a way to solve these problems of access to the sea. If nothing is done, we will certainly see an escalation that will be detrimental not only to Ethiopia and Somalia, but to the entire region.”

Experts admit there are risks of continued tensions as cooperation against the common enemy, Al-Shabaab, will stagnate, allowing the militants to thrive.

In Nairobi, Mohamud’s last port of call in shuttle diplomacy, a joint communiqué with his host country, President William Ruto, said there was a need to uphold “the constitutive principles of respect for territorial integrity, sovereignty and non-interference.”

Ethiopia is currently a contributor to Atmis, but also has a bilateral arrangement for more troops in Somalia. Mogadishu now says they must leave before the end of the year, while Ethiopia claims this would be a dangerous move for the security of the Horn of Africa.

“Ethiopia can squat in areas in Somalia, and that will have consequences. However, given the perception of Somalis on the manner in which Ethiopia has implemented its MoU of January 1, 2024 with the Somaliland region, it is difficult to foresee that the country will operate in Somalia legitimately and with the consent of the Somali government,” said Dr . Adam Aw Hirsi, director at Foresight for Practical Solutions, a Mogadishu-based think tank.

“No one in Villa Somalia, now or in the future, can sanction the presence of ENDF (Ethiopian Armed Forces) in Somalia while Ethiopia maintains its stated ambitions to have a naval base in what Mogadishu and the entire world considers part of Somalia ”, argued Dr. Hirsi. .

Kenya had tried to mediate the feud between Somalia and Ethiopia over the MoU with Somaliland but failed to bring their leaders together.

Turkey has tried to mediate twice without success. Ankara said it will now meet each party separately before planning a new meeting.

Mogadishu has insisted that dialogue can only take place if Addis Ababa publicly withdraws from the MoU. Some experts say Ethiopia should reconsider the deal or re-execute the MoU through Mogadishu.

“Issues of territorial expansion should be left to history,” said Dr Kenneth Ombongi, Associate Dean of Research at the University of Nairobi, on the HornTalk. “We must strongly urge the international community to increase pressure and presence to ensure they de-escalate the tension.”

For its part, Ethiopia has been making public statements lately, saying it plans to resolve the sea access issue diplomatically.