Lithuanians are voting in the final round of parliamentary elections

VILNIUS, Lithuania (AP) — Lithuanians went to the polls Sunday in the second and final round of parliamentary elections, with the conservative ruling party still in the fight despite first-round gains for the left-wing opposition.

Strict COVID-19 measures during the pandemic, political scandals involving several key cabinet members and an influx of migrants from neighboring Belarus have damaged the Prime Minister’s popularity Ingrida Šimonytė’s government, which took office in 2020.

The mood in Lithuania, which borders the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad to the west Belarus in the east, comes at a time when Russia’s war in Ukraine is heating up greater fear of Moscow’s intentionsespecially in the strategically important Baltic region.

It will set the political tone for the next four years, but despite a possible shift to the left, analysts say there will be no significant change in Lithuania’s foreign policy. The member of the European Union and NATO is a staunch supporter of Ukraine.

Voters in dozens of constituencies will choose between the two main candidates from the first round to complete the new 141-seat parliament known as the Seimas.

The opposition Social Democrats, led by Vilija Blinkevičiūtė, came out the first round with a lead from two weeks ago, taking 20 of the first 70 seats. That put them two seats ahead of Šimonytė’s Homeland Union party.

Blinkevičiūtė has said she and the centre-left Democratic Union, which won eight seats, would try to form a coalition together with a smaller third party. The three parties, which have a total of 34 lawmakers so far, have said they will back each other’s candidates in the runoff.

But the center-left parties could lose their edge, and their ability to form a stable government could depend on a new party that many consider a pariah.

The Nemuno Aušra party came third in the first round, with 15 seats. Leader Remigijus Žemaitaitis had to resign from parliament earlier this year after making anti-Semitic statements.

A strong performance by Nemuno Aušra could open the way for the Prime Minister’s party to form a minority government.

“No one can claim to have a clear majority after the first round,” said Mažvydas Jastramskis, a political analyst at Vilnius University’s Institute of International Relations and Political Science.

Šimonytė’s Homeland Union won 18 seats in the first round and its coalition member, the Liberal Union, eight. Both have several dozen candidates leading in the second round, but they are not in a position to win the 71 seats needed for a majority.

Tensions in Lithuania’s neighbors, and Russia’s war against Ukraine, are on voters’ minds as well as domestic concerns.

Most traditional parties said before the elections that they would not cooperate with Nemuno Aušra. The Social Democrats, for example, have ruled out any alliance with Žemaitaitis’ party. Nevertheless, Nemuno Aušra announced this week that she would support Blinkevičiūtė of the Social Democrats in her bid to become prime minister.

Jastramskis said it is unlikely that the three center-left parties will have enough seats to form a stable new government alone.

“The most likely option for the stable majority is if Nemuno Aušra joins the already announced three-party coalition,” Jastramskis said. “But it could become a major problem for the government if the unacceptable rhetoric and actions continue.”