What Danielle Smith fears Justin Trudeau could do before he leaves

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Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is fighting for his political life, but that hasn’t dampened his government’s zeal to put forward another plan to halt climate change. In what appears to be an unprecedented move of economic self-sabotage by a national government, Trudeau wants to impose a ceiling on oil and gas emissions in Canada.

The feds deny that their new emissions framework (which requires the industry to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 35 to 38 percent from 2019 levels by 2030) will limit oil and gas production in Canada. But a group of heavyweights – experts from the Conference Board of Canada, Deloitte and S&P Global – have taken a closer look at the offer and disagree.

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These experts view the Fed’s proposed emissions cap as a de facto oil and gas production cap. And if the cap is imposed, Canadians should expect massive job losses and billions drained from our country’s economy.

“A large emissions cap would be a devastating blow,” claims Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, “which is why we (the Alberta government) have launched a multimillion-dollar campaign against it.”

Smith isn’t waiting for the outcome of the Liberal caucus wringing its hands over leadership; she opposes Ottawa’s constitutional overreach and an economically misguided policy that focuses on a single sector: oil and gas.

Critics accuse Smith of pandering to her United Conservative Party (UCP) base ahead of her own leadership review in early November. Smith laughs at the accusation. “What was I chosen for?” she asks rhetorically, “The Sovereignty Act. Pushing back against Ottawa. By stopping them on their path and standing up for our energy sector.”

And if Trudeau thinks this will stop after her leadership review, he would be wise to think again. “I’ll keep coming at them as long as they keep coming at us,” she says. “They need to get rid of the cap. They must end their ambitions to reach net zero in our electricity grid.”

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Her government is investing $7 million in a ‘Scrap the Cap’ campaign – TV ads, online video, print and social media ads – to warn of the economic price to be paid, not just by Albertans , but by all Canadians, if the FBI legislates this limit.

“What we want is for them (the federal government) to remove the limit completely. That is why we have started the campaign now,” the Prime Minister explained in a recent telephone conversation. “There is a real danger that in the final days of their government they will do something foolish that will harm the entire Canadian economy. And we hope that all MPs see that, and that their voters see that, and that they join us in this campaign.”

It almost seems like they are in a bidding war to do the most damage to the Canadian economy

There is no panic in Smith’s voice; she sounds resolute and businesslike. I catch up with her as the UCP caucus prepares to open next week’s fall legislative session in Alberta. Government MLAs have been meeting in Lethbridge to discuss the legislative agenda, Question Time strategy and the like, she explains, and in the evening they have been knocking on doors.

The upcoming UN climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan (known as COP 29) could be the last international climate platform for the Trudeau Liberals. In 2015, I attended COP 21 in Paris to share Albertans’ views on the energy transition; the Liberals had just been elected in Ottawa and the NDP in Alberta, and I vividly remember their high-profile announcements. It is not inconceivable that Trudeau’s ministers will be tempted to use COP 29 as a platform for even more “unprecedented” and “bold” climate action.

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“They do this whenever they go to an international conference and want to demonstrate their environmental credentials to a certain group of eco-activists,” Smith reports. “It’s almost like they’re in a bidding war to do the most damage to the Canadian economy,” she explains, with a hint of impatience, “and somehow they think that gives them credibility with the environmentalists showing up there. ”

Naheed Nenshi, crowned leader of the provincial NDP in Alberta in June (but not yet elected MLA), is critical of the Smith government’s decision to launch the ‘Scrap the Cap’ campaign. You solve the problem with Ottawa by “coming to the table,” he argues. It’s a well-known trope, but honestly, I wonder out loud: How did that strategy work out for his predecessor, Rachel Notley?

“I just don’t think he understands the history of his own party,” Smith noted. “So – an emissions cap, an early phase-out of coal that cost billions of dollars, and a very unpopular carbon tax – that’s what they (the provincial NDP) put on the table in an attempt to buy peace with Ottawa. And what did we see happen?” she asks. “Cancellation of Energy East, cancellation of Northern Gateway, cancellation of Keystone XL, cancellation of Tech Frontier Mine, $150 billion in lost investments.”

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“That’s what happens when you try to be nice to an Ottawa that wants to destroy your industry,” she continues. “They take everything you give them and then go the extra mile.”

It’s a scary time in politics, and not just in Canada. With all this pressure on Trudeau, is the Prime Minister worried he’s lashing out at Alberta?

“Politicians have two choices when they are cornered and need support. They accept it, walk out gracefully and then let the party they lead pick up the pieces,” Smith replies. “We haven’t seen anything like that yet,” she jokes, continuing: “The other option is to go for broke and just say, ‘You know what? I’m going to try to pass what I can and do as much damage as I can on the way out because then it’s the next guy’s problem.’”

The second choice is foolhardy, but Smith fears because the Trudeau government has shown such contempt for the Canadian Constitution and division of powers, even contempt for our energy sector, she complains.

Smith politely but firmly asks the FBI not to impose their de facto production limit. Her government’s aim is to achieve emission reductions through technology and exports. Trudeau’s proposed cap will result in a loss of revenue for the provincial and federal treasuries, directly impacting consumers. “The Conference Board of Canada says it would cost ordinary families $419 a month,” the prime minister warns.

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“Think about lower-income families,” says Smith, “that’s what’s so shocking to me: the fact that they’re not even sensitive to the impact their decisions will have on real people.”

“The rest of the world has recalibrated after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, after the turmoil in the Middle East, after the inflation crisis and the affordability crisis,” the Prime Minister explained. But in their quest to be seen as pioneers on climate change, the Trudeau government remains “absolutely tone-deaf to what is happening in the real lives of real people.”

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