Does Qatar stop mediation or take it in a new direction?

On November 26, 2024By Pranco

Qatar’s decision to suspend its mediation efforts between Israel and Hamas and its major cabinet reshuffle are not isolated actions; they are intertwined maneuvers within a unified strategic framework, aimed at strengthening the country’s position amid changing regional and global dynamics.

Together, these actions reveal a nation proactively positioning itself for the future. With the impending return of Donald Trump as US President and the potential for heightened regional tensions, Qatar is strengthening its readiness as a mediator and resilient actor capable of maintaining influence in both the diplomatic and security arenas.

Realignment of regional relations

In early November, Majid al-Ansari, spokesman for the Qatari Foreign Ministry, announced that Qatar-led mediation efforts between Israel and Hamas had been suspended. Al-Ansari stated that the relevant parties had been informed ten days earlier that “the mediation would be stopped if no progress was made”. Qatar justified the suspension of mediation by citing the “reluctance” and “lack of seriousness” of both sides in ending the conflict and preventing harm to civilians.

Western media platforms have engaged in disinformation regarding Qatar’s statements on two specific points. The first is the claim that Qatar has completely withdrawn from mediation between Israel and Hamas, and the second is the claim that the Hamas office in Doha has been permanently closed. So far, no official statement has confirmed that Qatar has permanently ended mediation between Israel and Hamas. Likewise, there has been no final or officially announced development regarding the permanent closure of the Hamas office in Doha.

However, in a statement issued a few days ago, Al-Ansari confirmed that the Hamas leaders who took part in the negotiations were no longer in Doha and that these people were already holding meetings in several regional capitals, including Türkiye. He added that if there is no need for mediation, the decision on closing the Hamas office in Doha will officially come from Qatar.

The statements are intended to convey a message to both parties that issues will remain unresolved without mediation. Qatar is being positioned as a key player if talks between Israel and Hamas resume. Therefore, suspending her role as a mediator at this stage could potentially strengthen her position.

Cooperation between Turkey and Qatar

Türkiye is one of the countries where Hamas can move or where mediation can take place. Qatari officials have also expressed this directly or indirectly. While there is no specific statement from Qatar or Türkiye at this stage that Hamas has permanently moved to Türkiye, it is a natural political strategy for Hamas to move between its offices. Türkiye has been working with regional actors for years and is working on specific solutions for monitoring the Palestinian people; there is nothing new here.

Hamas’s departure from Doha at this stage does not indicate a negative shift in Qatar-Hamas relations, nor does it suggest that Hamas will completely shift its political operations to another country, including Turkey. These issues are likely to have been raised during meetings with the country’s Emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, which recently conversations held with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Türkiye while attending the 10th meeting of the Supreme Strategic Committee.

Türkiye and Qatar are closely coordinating their efforts in response to Israel’s aggressive actions in the region, including its reckless approach. Both countries are actively pursuing mediation initiatives aimed at securing a ceasefire, facilitating the release of hostages, ensuring the withdrawal of Israeli forces from certain areas and ultimately ending the conflict. This cooperation continues regardless of where Hamas is located, with a shared commitment to addressing these pressing issues

Cabinet reshuffles

The suspension of mediation was accompanied by significant internal political developments in Qatar. On the same day as the US presidential election, a referendum was concluded that effectively abolished the election of two-thirds of the members of the Shura Council by popular vote, restoring the previous system where members were appointed by the emir. This shift was followed by a series of consequential changes that unfolded in quick succession.

On November 12, 2024, Sheikh Tamim implemented an extensive reshuffle within the Cabinet and other public offices. An assessment of these developments suggests a partial renewal within the upper echelons of Qatar’s security bureaucracy. While previous appointees have been individuals closely linked to the ruling family, the recent appointment of a direct member of the Al Thani family – and a particularly influential one – to lead the defense sector marks a significant development.

Moreover, the appointment of a senior security and intelligence official as head of the Emir’s Diwan, in addition to the appointment of a new Chief of General Staff and Chief of Intelligence, represent important steps in this reshuffle. With these changes, the decision-making mechanism in Qatar has become more exclusive, as individuals appointed to these roles are members of or closely associated with the ruling family.

The rationale behind these changes may be related to the expected inauguration of Donald Trump as US President on January 20, 2025. Additionally, the prospect of targeting Hamas affiliates or figures within Qatar may also be considered a contributing factor.

Qatar may have felt it necessary to speed up decision-making processes and concentrate these processes within a narrower circle in order to more effectively manage relations with the new Trump administration. Following the disruption of negotiations between Israel and Hamas, another possible reason for this realignment could be the possibility of Israel targeting Hamas members living in Qatar.

Strategic calculations: why now?

Qatar’s decision to suspend its mediation efforts between Israel and Hamas, coupled with a significant cabinet reshuffle, signals a shift in power dynamics in the region and underlines Qatar’s intention to secure its strategic position.

Although the suspension of mediation is ostensibly due to the reluctance and lack of seriousness of both parties, it can also be seen as a tactical move by Qatar to underline its influence as a mediator. By pausing its efforts, Qatar is demonstrating that its role is critical and will not continue without genuine commitment from both parties. This law underlines Qatar’s influence and the potential costs of Qatar’s exclusion from peace processes.

The extensive reshuffle initiated by Sheikh Tamim, which focuses on placing close relatives or individuals loyal to the ruling family in key positions, signals a strategic attempt to consolidate power and streamline decision-making processes. This reorganization is in line with Qatar’s need to respond quickly and effectively to external pressures and evolving regional challenges.

With Trump set to assume the US presidency, Qatar may expect a return to a more assertive US foreign policy in the Middle East, characterized by strong support for Israel and opposition to Iran. The cabinet changes appear to be a preemptive step to better position Qatar to deal with possible geopolitical shifts and pressure from the Trump administration.

Qatar’s established relationship with Hamas remains a cornerstone of its regional diplomatic influence. However, with the suspension of talks between Israel and Hamas and the possibility of Israel targeting Hamas operatives in Qatar, the state’s strategic realignment could also serve as a protective measure. It strengthens Qatar’s internal security position and at the same time signals that the country is willing to adjust its alliances and strategies where necessary.

The recent suspension of mediation in Qatar and significant reshuffling within the security bureaucracy signal a calculated shift, positioning itself to confront looming changes in the global and regional order. The timing coincides not only with Trump’s impending presidency, but also with broader uncertainties about regional conflicts and shifting balances of power.

By consolidating decision-making within a trusted circle and asserting its mediation power, Qatar is signaling a willingness to protect its strategic interests, signaling to allies and adversaries alike that it will not withdraw from the table, but will withdraw if necessary to maintain its diplomatic and security interests. stature.