Crucial starting/sitting decisions for week 13

Welcome to week 13. The turkey has been stuffed down your esophagus and the dishes are stacked precariously in the sink, waiting. You and I are researching our fantasy football teams and drink some egg nog with extra booze. Welcome to some relaxing fantasy football words to help you determine your lineups.

If you want to follow my advice, it won’t be difficult to turn these thoughts into lineup decisions. To give me a baseline I will use FantasyPros PPR expert consensus rankings rankings as my guide.

CJ Stroud, Texans at Jaguars

Stroud isn’t living up to his rookie season, but a fully healthy Nico Collins and an easy matchup with the Jaguars should help. Last week, despite two interceptions, he threw for 247 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 18 yards as the QB11 finisher against a very good Titans defense. The Jaguars on the other hand are competing for the worst defense in the league with the Panthers as they have the worst pass defense EPA and fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.

Matthew Stafford, Rams at Saints

Stafford has played well lately, finishing QB8 or better in three of his last five games, along with his last two. The return of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua has certainly been a boon to his numbers.

New Orleans has done a good job of keeping teams from scoring through the air, but they’ve also allowed the third-most passing yards per game at 276. Only the Ravens and Jaguars have allowed more yards, and I expect Stafford and his company will increase that. number this week.

Jameis Winston, Browns at Broncos

Winston is always worth watching in fantasy for his gun-toting ways, but traveling to Denver to take on the Broncos isn’t the best place to be swinging your gun. Denver ranks first in EPA against the pass and fifth in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.

Geno Smith, Seahawks at Jets

Smith is still in line to start as he has regressed a bit after a strong start to the season. But this week I’d send him to the bench as the Seahawks head to the East Coast to take on the Jets. New York has allowed the fewest completions, second-fewest touchdown passes and third-fewest passing yards in the league.

Bucky Irving, Buccaneers at Panthers

Last week, Irving won the majority of receiving duties out of the backfield, which was a major coup for his fantasy relevance. He led as both a runner and receiver, but lost some work to Rachaad White and Sean Tucker. We can’t just expect a huge workload from Irving, but we can expect a decent workload, especially against the Panthers, who are in many ways the worst run defense in the league. And as far as fantasy goes, they are the worst, having allowed the most fantasy points to running backs this season.

Isiah Pacheco, Chiefs vs. Raiders

Pacheco is back this week and seems ready to go. With Kareem Hunt playing well in his absence, they don’t need to push Pacheco, but this matchup should give him a decent fantasy outcome even if he doesn’t get the full workload. The last time these two teams met, Hunt had 22 touches and a touchdown, but was inefficient per touch. Pacheco will be better and if this game is close, which it very well could be, I think the team will rely on Pacheco in big situations.

James Conner, Vikings Cardinals

Conner has played well this season, but last week’s game in Seattle was his worst game of the year as a runner, as he ran the ball seven times for eight yards. He still racked up a pair of PPR points with five receptions for 41 yards, but this week he’ll go up against a stellar Vikings defense that hasn’t given up five receptions to a back yet this season. Minnesota also ranks first in the EPA against the running game and third in fantasy points allowed to running backs this year.

Nick Chubb, Browns at Broncos

Chubb is not the same as he used to be, and not by a long shot. He is averaging 3 yards per carry, while his career average is 5.4 yards per carry. Since his return, he has added to his fantasy points with three touchdowns, but they were all short-yardage stuff. That keeps him flexible, but the Broncos defense isn’t allowing too many goal-line attempts as he’s given up just five rushing touchdowns, fifth-best in the league.

Darnell Mooney, Falcons vs. Chargers

Now that we’re done, it looks like Mooney is ready to go and this game has some sneaky shooting potential. The Chargers’ defense hid behind their run-first offense to start the year, but they were exposed in the second half of the season. Since Week 8, they have given up the most receiving touchdowns and the second-most receiving yards in the league. Get Mooney and Drake London in your lineup.

Michael Pittman, Colts at Patriots

It appears the Colts will be without their No. 1 receiver, Josh Downs, this weekend. That should boost Michael Pittman into must-start territory. He hasn’t been great this season as he’s had inconsistent quarterback play and a lingering back injury, but he had a good game last week, catching 6 of 7 targets for 96 yards. The Patriots are a good fit, as they are 10th worst at allowing fantasy points to wide receivers and 30th in EPA against the pass.

Carlo Tillman, Browns at Broncos

Tillman has taken a back seat to Jerry Jeudy and others the past few games. We’ve seen him play well and score good fantasy points, but he’s not the first target as we had hoped after seeing him have three straight Top-12 wide receiver fantasy games in a row after Jameis Wonston took over. He still has a lot of upside, but knowing he isn’t the No. 1 pick and is playing against one of the best secondaries in the league in Denver is concerning.

Deebo Samuel, 49ers at Bills

Deebo still has advantagesbut it hasn’t come out as often as it has in the past. Since missing Week 3 due to injury, he has only finished higher than WR24 once. Last week, with Brandon Allen at the helm, he caught just 1 of 4 passes for 21 yards. He also has just two touchdowns on the season and none since Week 6. And this game will take place in Orchard Park, with temperatures in the low 20s, some gusty winds and a chance of snow.

The Bills are also strong against the pass, ranking eighth in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. When Allen starts, I fade Deebo. If Purdy starts, I’d give him a flex spot if you’re hurting for playmakers with benefits.

Cade Oton, Buccaneers at Panthers

Otton didn’t fare well in Mike Evans’ first game, catching one pass for 30 yards. Now that Evans is back, we can’t expect Oton to have the insane workload he had without him, but we can also expect more than one reception. This week against the Panthers, he’ll get the best tight end matchup in the league, as the Panthers have given up the most fantasy points to tight ends this season.

Noah Gray, Chiefs vs. Raiders

Gray isn’t going to take over for Travis Kelce on the depth chart, but it’s all hands on deck in Kansas City as they work to get their offense going before the playoffs begin. So Gray will continue to be part of the offense, but he also won’t score two touchdowns per game like he has the past two weeks.

This matchup is a strong one for the Chiefs tight ends, as the Raiders rank 30th in fantasy points allowed to the position. Gray is risky, but there’s no doubt Patrick Mahomes trusts him

Zach Ertz, Commanders vs. Titans

The Titans defense has been strong against tight ends this season, ranking seventh in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. Ertz will get enough work in the red zone that a touchdown isn’t out of the question, but I expect the Commanders to have trouble moving the ball against this defense.

Kyle Pitts, Falcons vs. Chargers

Pitts remains an enigma because he will make some big plays and keep us interested, but then he will catch one pass for 11 yards. This week he faces a tough matchup against the Chargers, who have allowed one touchdown at the position and rank eighth in fantasy points allowed to tight ends.