Hollywood Is Terrified of Horror Fatigue at the 2025 Box Office. Why?

In 2022, Parker Finn’s Smile became one of the highest-grossing films of the year, grossing over $217 million on a production budget of $17 million. Paramount quickly greenlit a sequel, a no-brainer in an era when horror is one of the only sure bets left on the checkout. The studios embarked on a horror arms race, locking up talent in first-look deals, hiring executives to focus on the genre and figuring out how to get more product into theaters.

Two years later, Smile 2 arrived over the weekend of October 18-20 to a very different landscape, with the market becoming increasingly oversaturated, raising alarm bells at major and indie studios.

The well received Smile sequel headed into the second weekend of Cineverse’s unrated indie slasher sensation Scarer 3which had opened the week before to a shockingly better-than-expected $18.9 million (see opposite).

Paramount was confident Smile 2 would match or even surpass the opening of the first film, and while it succeeded with $23 million, there’s no doubt that Scarer 3 ate in his company. In its second outing, the latter fell just 51 percent to $9.3 million.

The great thing about horror is that films can be made faster and cheaper than other genres, generating huge profits. But as the marquee becomes flooded with more and more choices, audience fatigue grows.

“There are about 26 wide horror releases this year. And there will be 18 next year,” says a top studio executive, who predicts more will be added to the 2025 calendar. “You would like to take a break in between. You don’t want the audience to be satiated when you come by.”

Some of the high-profile offerings for 2025 include: Barbarian producer BoulderLight’s Companion (January 10); Leigh Whannells Wolf-Man (January 17); Oz Perkins’ Long legs follow-up The Monkey (February 21); Dakota Fanning star Mean (February 28); Ryan Cooglers Sinners (March 7); video game adaptation Until sunrise (April 25); M3GAN 2.0 (June 27); XI seen (September 26); The black telephone 2 (October 17); And Five nights at Freddy’s 2 (December 5).

Scarer 3 wasn’t Smile‘s only competition. With Halloween approaching, the weekend of October 18-20 saw five other new horror offerings, though all were moderated or limited releases, including Fathom Events’ October 20 re-release of an unrated version of Seen X.

from Lionsgate Saw franchise ushered in the era of torture porn, which seems to be experiencing a resurgence based on Scarer 3. (Little discussed fact: the unclassified Scarer 2 actually opened against the first Smilebut only about 770 theaters were booked, with most cinemas offering only one evening show and prohibited from playing on Sundays. It didn’t even make $1 million when it opened, but eventually gained traction and became a hit.)

For every movie like Smile And More frighteningthere have been some high-profile misses for the genre lately. Blumhouse and Miramax were badly bruised The exorcist: believer flamed out in October 2023, killing hopes for a trilogy. from Blumhouse Five nights at Freddy’s was a box office victory later that month, softening the blow.

“Starting in the mid-2010s, it seemed as if audiences had suddenly decided that comedies and awards films were best watched at home. And now we wonder whether the previously surefire horror genre is no longer as theatrically viable,” says Comscore chief box office analyst Paul Degarabedian. “The offer from early 2023 – M3GAN, Cocaine bear, Scream VI And Evil dead rise – grossed $585 million worldwide on a combined budget of nearly $100 million. So far the most important horror titles from 2024 that didn’t work: Night swimming, Imaginary, Late Night with the Devil, Spotless, The first omen And Abigail – should end their combined runs with $235 million on a combined budget of nearly $100 million.”

This story appeared in the Oct. 23 issue of The Hollywood Reporter magazine. Click here to subscribe.