Shocker: Virginia 'competitive', with Harris at 49% and Trump at 48%

In the last sign that president Donald Trump could score a major victory on Election Day, Republican Vice President Kamala Harris has nearly overtaken solid blue Virginiawhere the last Republican to win was former President George W. Bush 20 years ago.

The newest Quantus poll of likely voters showed Harris at 48.9% and Trump at 47.8%.

“Virginia returns as a competitor battlefield,” the research analysis said.

“With Harris leading by a razor-thin margin and showing strong support among young, urban and minority voters, the state could hinge on turnout and suburban swing voters. “Trump’s solid support among men, older people and rural voters keeps him within striking distance,” the report said.

NEW GENERAL ELECTION POLL 2024 Virginia: QUANTUS INSIGHTS

Harris: 49%
Trump: 48%
Other: 3%

725LV | October 22-24 | MoE 3.6%
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Crosstabs and full report at 2pm CST. pic.twitter.com/5jsSo8doUT

— Quantus Insights (@QuantusInsights) October 25, 2024

Virginia was believed to be a factor when President Joe Biden was expected to be the Democratic nominee, but it turned blue again after Harris was elected. Since then, she has failed to maintain her support in Virginia (and several other areas).

Republican vice presidential candidate Sen. JD Vance (R-OH) and Trump’s Republican chairman and daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, are expected to campaign for the former president in the Commonwealth this weekend.

The poll came out just as a federal judge demanded that Virginia has put some 1,500 illegal voters back on the ballot, a move that angered Governor Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) and many Republican voters. This is expected to give a small boost to Trump.

Let’s be clear about what just happened: Just eleven days before the presidential election, a federal judge ordered Virginia to reinstate more than 1,500 individuals — who identified themselves as noncitizens — on the voter rolls. https://t.co/QwloK1Sxr4

— Glenn Youngkin (@GlennYoungkin) October 25, 2024

The poll found that Virginians give Harris a slight lead but favor Trump on every issue except abortion.

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According to the report, 58% thought the economy was the most important problem, and nothing else came close. And by a margin of 51%-47%, they chose Trump as the better candidate to fix the economy.

Quantus also published its expectations for the total number of electoral votes, showing Trump a healthy lead, 312-226, based on its unusual modeling formula.