The extent of any retaliation will determine whether Iran and Israel are heading towards all-out war

Israel has launched what appears to be the largest direct attack ever on Iran, but an announcement that its forces will only attack military targets is crucial.

The world has been bracing for an Israeli retaliation against the Iranian regime since the Iranian military launched a barrage of more than 180 ballistic missiles into Israel more than three weeks ago in response to Israeli attacks on its proxy forces in the region.

The Israeli government had vowed a “tough” response. There was speculation that this could include attacking Iran’s nuclear sites, energy infrastructure or even the country’s leadership.

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However, if the attack is limited to purely military targets, then – depending on the extent of the damage – it could provide an opportunity for de-escalation into a tit-for-tat missile war that could ignite the region into a full-blown military conflict.

But if the damage is significant, Iran would likely make good on its promise to retaliate again.

If that were to happen, the size of any Iranian counterattack would be an important indicator.

If Iran chose to reduce the number of missiles fired at Israel, it would also signal a desire to de-escalate.

Should a future attack be even greater than that of October 1, hostilities between Iran and Israel would once again be on the path to all-out war.

Either way, Israel will now brace for any Iranian response – something that could happen much faster than the last and only previous time these two nations traded direct military blows.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has been on high alert to defend against the expected Israeli attack, but will also have been planning for whatever further action their forces might take.

Tehran has much weaker air defenses than Israel. However, the country has invested heavily in building up large stockpiles of ballistic missiles and cruise missiles.

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This is not the first time the two countries have engaged in direct military confrontation.

In April, Iran fired hundreds of missiles and drones at Israel in retaliation for a deadly Israeli attack on an Iranian consular building in the Syrian capital Damascus.

Israeli air defenses, reinforced mainly by the US but also with support from Britain and other allies, successfully intercepted the vast majority of Iranian projectiles.

At the time, Israel was urged to “take victory” rather than further escalate the confrontation by launching a major counterattack on Iran.

The country followed the advice and the subsequent retaliation took place without any public explanation, with the army attacking a defense facility near Isfahan in central Iran.

This time, Israel has deliberately chosen to declare very publicly that it was striking back against the Iranian barrage of October 1.

Both sides are trying to restore deterrence in a region that has been on the brink of all-out war since Hamas – an Iranian-backed militant group in Gaza – launched its devastating attack on Israel on October 7 last year.

From that moment on, Israel attacks Hamas in Gaza. The country is also engaged in a war with Hezbollah – the largest Iranian-backed paramilitary force – in Lebanon and is fighting on four other fronts, against Iranian-backed militants in Iraq, Syria and Yemen as well as in the West Bank.

But the confrontation with Iran is the most important, with the greatest potential to unleash a much broader war.