A Russia in decline is a clear threat to NATO

Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine was a criminal act and a strategic blunder by the Kremlin. The ill-fated attack eroded Russia’s global and regional influence and undermined the image of its great power. While a defiant Putin has praised Russia’s economic resilience, the war has drained its coffers. Labor shortages, shrinking foreign assets and dependence on oil sales point to a bleak economic future for Moscow. The recent increase in Russian military production is a worrying trend.

However, its war economy may be past its peak, and the extent of its military capabilities has not compensated for the shortages of advanced technologies and the lack of adequate military training.

Russia’s economic, demographic and military problems will unravel its global and regional position. Yet a revisionist power in decline is no less dangerous than a revisionist power on the rise. On the contrary, a disaffected and threatened power in decline can be more provocative and risk-accepting, capable of inflicting serious harm irregularly.

To gain public support for the Kremlin’s aggressive and costly foreign policy, the Russian government has created a version of a neo-imperial nationalist policy. ideology praising the Russian language, traditions, culture and history, as written by the Kremlin.

This vision of Russia as a great power state is underpinned by Putin’s promises to “historical Russian‘ lands and reverses NATO’s eastern expansion. Regardless of the outcome of the war, Russia’s geopolitical ambitions will exceed its economic and military achievements. If the war continues, the high price tag for military production and payouts to soldiers will be unsustainable in the long run. If Russia maintains its temporary control over the annexed Ukrainian territories, the country will have to devote significant resources to their reconstruction and administration.

At the same time, Russia will face the need to deter NATO, which has seen a significant increase in allies’ spending on defense. While NATO has confirmed that its military build-up has a defensive purpose and “does not pose a threat to Russia”, Russia certainly does not see it that way. Russia’s leaders see an existential threat in the growing power differential between Russia and NATO and a limited opportunity to achieve its political objectives.

It remains highly unlikely that Russia will attack a NATO ally. The motives for the attack on Ukraine, which Russia considers indispensable to its security, history and culture, are fundamentally different from its interests in the rest of Europe. However, Russian momentum in Ukraine may encourage invasion of other post-Soviet territories, especially Georgia, Moldova and Belarus, to re-establish a strategic buffer zone.

If the Russian leadership does not escalate horizontally by expanding the territory of the conflict, it can escalate vertically, by relying on nuclear and hybrid means. Nuclear sabre-rattling has become routine for the Kremlin. If the country has delayed the delivery of necessary capabilities to Ukraine by its cautious Western partners, nuclear border management could stop working in the future. If the Kremlin takes up the challenge of restoring the credibility of its nuclear deterrent, it could reinvigorate the nuclear arms race and weaken the pillars of nonproliferation.

By resting droneshypersonic missiles and lasers with nuclear capabilities and by sharing nuclear energy technologies with other evil actors, the Russian nuclear power plant escalation will increase the risk of nuclear catastrophe.

The most likely scenario of Russian virtual escalation will entail the intensification of influence operations aimed at eroding Euro-Atlantic solidarity and support for Ukraine. A sharp increase in defense spending in Europe threatens the European welfare state, which is already weakened by the economic recession, demographic changes and an increase in migration.

While many European citizens part Due to their governments’ stance on increased investment in national defense, few are willing to foot the bill. Economic problems have contributed to the rise of the far right in Europe. Today, fear and disorientation about the future of European countries, compounded by economic anxiety, form the backbone of nationalist and Eurosceptic sentiment that Russia can effectively exploit.

In short, Russia’s decline would not result in greater security and stability in Europe in the near future. A threatened revisionist power will intensify its nuclear and hybrid confrontation with the West while it can, taking advantage of the opportunities presented by the security and economic challenges facing Western countries.

About the author

Dr. Mariya Y. Omelicheva is Professor of Strategy at the National War College, National Defense University.

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