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US Presidential Polls: What to Expect in Iowa on Election Day

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US Presidential Polls: What to Expect in Iowa on Election Day

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Iowa had one of the smallest presidential vote margins in the 2000 and 2004 elections, when it voted for Democrat Al Gore and then Republican George W. Bush.

Voters work on their ballots at kiosks (AP file photo)

Voters work on their ballots at kiosks (AP file photo)

Iowa has a long history as a presidential battleground state, but when voters cast their ballots in the general election on Nov. 5, it’s the races further down the ballot that may receive the most attention.

Voters will decide competitive contests in the U.S. House of Representatives that could determine control of the chamber, as well as state legislative races that could give Iowa Republicans a veto-proof supermajority. They will also consider statewide ballot measures that would require citizenship to vote and change the line of succession for governor.

Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican former President Donald Trump will vie for the state’s six electoral votes. Iowa had one of the smallest presidential vote margins in the 2000 and 2004 elections, when it voted for Democrat Al Gore and then Republican George W. Bush. Barack Obama was the last Democrat to win the state in 2008 and 2012.

Changes in the state’s political views since then may have pushed Iowa further out of reach for Democrats. The GOP holds all of Iowa’s congressional seats, the governorship, most statewide offices and lopsided majorities in the state legislature. Trump won Iowa by comfortable margins in 2016 and 2020. This year, neither the candidate nor their running mates have visited Iowa since they were their parties’ nominees.

In the race for the closely divided U.S. House of Representatives, two Republican incumbents face competitive re-election bids. In the 1st District, Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks faces a rematch with Democrat Christina Bohannan, a former state senator who lost to Miller-Meeks in 2022 by a seven-point margin. In the 3rd District, Republican Rep. Zach Nunn is seeking a second term against Democrat Lanon Baccam, a former USDA administrator. Trump won the Des Moines district by a margin of just 0.4 percentage points. Democrats need a net gain of just a few seats to regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

In the state legislature, Republicans already enjoy large majorities in both chambers and still need to pick up a few seats in the state House for a supermajority, although they already hold the governorship.

Voters will also consider two constitutional amendments. One would ban state and local governments from allowing noncitizens to vote and allow 17-year-olds to vote in the primaries if they will be 18 in the general election. The other measure would clarify the line of succession if the state’s lieutenant governor became governor.

The AP does not make forecasts and will only declare a winner if it has determined that there is no scenario with which the underlying candidates can close the gap. If no race is called, the AP will continue to report on any newsworthy developments, such as concessions to candidates or declarations of victory. The AP will make it clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

Here’s a look at what to expect in the 2024 elections in Iowa:

November 5.

9:00 PM ET.

6 awarded to statewide winner.

President: Harris (D) vs. Trump (R) vs. Chase Oliver (Libertarian) vs. Claudia De la Cruz (Party for Socialism and Liberation) vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (We The People) and two others.

1st Congressional District: Rep. Miller-Meeks (R) vs. Bohannan (D).

3rd Congressional District: Rep. Nunn (R) vs. Baccam (D).

Voting measures: Amendment 1 (requiring citizenship to vote and changing voting age).

The U.S. House, Senate, State House, and Amendment 2 (changing the succession of governors).

2020: Trump (R) 53%, Biden (D) 45%, AP race call: Wednesday, November 4, 2020, 12:21 PM ET.

Registered voters: 2,223,492 (as of September 3, 2024).

Turnout in the 2020 presidential election: 74% of registered voters.

Votes cast before Election Day 2020: approximately 59% of the total votes.

Votes cast before Election Day 2022: approximately 30% of the total votes.

Votes cast before Election Day 2024: See AP Advance Vote Tracker.

First votes reported, November 3, 2020: 10:11 PM ET.

By midnight ET: About 82% of the total votes cast had been reported.

(This story has not been edited by News18 staff and is published from a syndicated news agency feed – Associated press)

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