Ilia Topuria vs Max Holloway Predictions and Best Bets — UFC 308

Ilia Topuria makes the first defense of his featherweight title against former champion Max Holloway UFC308 Today.

This could be a changing of the guard in the division UFC Odds installing 27-year-old Topuria as -270 favorite and returning the old contender in Holloway to +200.

Both fighters are coming off highlight reel knockouts, but my Topuria vs. Holloway predictions for October 26 are betting on this fight going to the final bell.

Topuria vs Holloway prediction and picks

Analysis of the battle

Holloway proved he’s still an elite fighter when he faced Justin Gaethje as a +135 underdog in April. and defeated the No. 2 lightweight contender for five rounds before defeating him with a spectacular last-second knockout.

That said, Topuria’s hand speed is slightly faster than Holloway’s at this point in their respective careers. Remember, Holloway looked a step slower than Alexander Volkanovski when he was soundly defeated in their trilogy fight two years ago, while Topuria punched faster than Volk when he knocked him out to claim the 145-pound strap in February.

Topuria has devastating power on his hands, with four of his six wins in the UFC coming by KO/TKO. He also has excellent wrestling ability and has recorded eight submission victories in his MMA career. Even if Topuria doesn’t become the first fighter to crack Holloway’s iron chin, he should land the more impactful shots or use his superior wrestling to win rounds.

With more paths to victory, expect Topuria to win. However, as a -270 favorite, this line is too broad against an ultra-durable fighter like Holloway, whose elite cardio and incredible volume could cause unrest if this ends up in the judges’ cards. Look elsewhere for betting value.

Best best analysis

Topuria could hit the tougher shots, but Holloway has never been knocked down or even knocked down in his career. And while Topuria also has dangerous submissions, Holloway’s 84% ​​takedown defense should help him keep this fight going.

Most of Topuria’s fights have ended quickly, but when he can’t finish early, he tends to get involved in wrestling. He went 8-for-12 on takedown attempts in fights against Josh Emmett and Youssef Zalal who went the distance, and he also used three takedown attempts against Jai Herbert after an early fall.

When Topuria realizes he can’t roll Holloway standing, he will resort to his wrestling, which will take time off the clock and lead to a stoppage against the cage.

It will be difficult for Topuria to win within the distance and I have no confidence in Holloway getting a stoppage. Holloway is a striker with high volume and very technical boxing, but he does not typically display death-touch power and prefers to take damage over time.

Sure, he’s coming off a spectacular KO win, but that happened in the final second of a 25-minute fight, and his previous knockout came against the “Korean zombie” Chan Sung Jung, who is extremely hitable and whose chin has long disappeared. Before that knockout against Jung, Holloway’s previous eight fights had gone the full 25 minutes.

Ilia Topuria vs. Max Holloway Odds

Method of victory	Topuria	Hollow
To win outright	-270	+220
To win by KO/TKO	+190	+625
To win by decision	+245	+500
To win by submission	+400	+2250
To draw	+2500	+2500

Odds from 10-26

Ilia Topuria vs. Max Holloway story from the tape

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