Three reasons why Packers will beat Jaguars

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers, who were considered Super Bowl contenders in the preseason, appear to have found their groove.

They haven’t been dominant, but the Packers (5-2) have won three straight entering Sunday’s game against the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5).

The Jaguars are also playing better, with two wins in their last three games, but here are three reasons why the Packers will win again heading into next week’s showdown against the Detroit Lions.

Big-Play offense vs. Big-Play defense

Big plays win games, and this is where the Packers have a, well, big advantage.

The Packers rank third in the NFL in explosive plays, defined as an 18-yard pass or a 12-yard run. The Packers are tied for seventh in explosive passes with 33 and tied for second in explosive runs with 26.

In terms of 20-yard plays, Green Bay’s offense is second with 33. Broken down, it is second with 25 passes and sixth with eight runs.

Jacksonville’s defense is next to last with 33 plays of 20 yards allowed, 30 of which come through the air. It’s also allowed a league-worst six 20-yard touchdowns. Much of that damage was done when top cornerback Tyson Campbell fell out of the lineup; he returned to action last week and nearly intercepted a pass in the 32-16 win over New England.

But even with Campbell, rookie quarterback Drake Maye threw for 276 yards with a 109.7 passer rating.

There should be plenty of opportunities for Love, especially with Green Bay’s balanced attack.

“He’s a really good football player,” Jaguars defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen said of Love. “He controls the position, the offense. He is in charge of everything. He knows where to go with football. Matt has done a great job with offense, scheme and putting them in position (to make plays).

“This guy can make any throw. The offense has obviously just been built over time, from the beginning of his career to now. You see the progress of that. Then he can get out of trouble with his legs. You saw him in the Philly game, he escapes the pocket and throws the deep ball. The ability to move and throw while running makes him an elite player at the position. It will certainly be a nice challenge.”

An under-the-radar advantage for the Packers. Love ranks seventh in yards after the catch per completion, while the Jaguars are 31st in YAC allowed.

Jordan Love vs. Jaguars with one pick

If there’s one problem for the Packers, it’s Love’s big blunders. Even while missing two games due to a knee injury, Love has thrown a league-worst eight interceptions.

There seems to be an awareness that Love’s aggressive style carries an acceptable level of risk. Still, he has to get better. Both interceptions last week against Houston were avoidable, and there was an ill-advised bomb in the end zone on the game-winning drive that thankfully fell incomplete.

Enter the Jaguars, who have intercepted one pass this season.

“I think the interceptions are obviously something I want to clean up and definitely improve on, being able to be clean with the ball,” Love said this week. “I think the big focus for us is to play a game in attack and have 100 percent ball security. That’s certainly a big takeaway.

“There are always different reasons for interceptions, whether it’s a bad read, a bad ball thrown, things like that. There are so many different ways things happen. Definitely something for me that I want to focus on moving forward.”

The Jaguars’ lone interception comes from safety Andrew Wingard, who could return from injured reserve this week.

It’s no wonder the Jaguars are 2-5. They have allowed a league-low 16 touchdown passes and a league-low one interception. They rank last in opponent passer rating and 28th in yards per attempt. They also rank 26th in pressure percentage, with pressure giving the defense the best chance at an interception.

The aforementioned Campbell had one interception in 11 games last season, but three picks and 15 pass breakups in 2022. Former Packers safety Darnell Savage had a pick six in the playoffs last year but hasn’t had an interception since 2022 in the regular season.

“They definitely have a lot of good weapons there, which a lot of good teams in this league have,” Savage told reporters this week. “But in the end there is only one football. So you just have to do your job every time and be ready, and think that the ball will come to you every time, no matter what. As long as we keep that mentality and just keep going when they come to us, we’ll be fine.”

Situational success

Yards are great, but they’re all empty calories if you can’t move the chains on third down or reach the end zone on first and goal lines.

The Jaguars have been terrible in all facets of what coaches call situational football.

Jacksonville’s offense ranks 24th in third-down (34.2 percent conversions) and 26th in fourth-down (46.7 percent). Meanwhile, the defense ranks 26th for third (45.1 percent) and 29th for fourth (70.0 percent).

settling for field goals is a sure way to lose games. The Jaguars rank 24th in red zone passing (50.0 percent touchdowns) and 27th in goals-to-go (60.0 percent). Giving up touchdowns is also a sure way to lose games. Defensively, the Jaguars rank last in the red zone (78.3 percent touchdowns) and in goal-to-go (100.0 percent touchdowns).

The Packers are mediocre in all of these categories. On offense, they are 12th on third down and 17th on fourth down, as well as 18th in red zone and 19th in goal-to-go. Defensively, they rank 15th on third down and 10th on fourth down, as well as 19th in red zone passing and 25th in goal-to-go.

However, they were better in the red zone during their three-game winning streak (tied for ninth on offense, tied for eighth on defense).

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— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) October 25, 2024