Three things the Irish elections should be about

1. Dealing with climate change

This week the Climate Change Advisory Council released its annual review, warning the government that the pace of progress in cutting carbon emissions – while undoubtedly a marked improvement on previous trends – will not be sufficient to achieve the reduction targets by 2030. Significant improvements have been made over the past year in particular, but Ireland remains far from the kind of figures that meet our legally binding EU and national targets.

So what? you say. Another gloomy climate report; another set of ignoreable warnings. Well, maybe. More about that later. But politicians – especially those with ambitions to govern, and no, not all of them – must view these issues not only as future climate problems, but also as current budget problems. The Climate Council has calculated that Ireland faces fines of more than €8 billion if the current trajectory continues. That would be fiscally disastrous for the next government, which would be faced with spending money on paying the fines instead of improving services, building infrastructure or cutting taxes.

( A robust scientific vision must ensure that climate and biodiversity research is at the top of the national agendaOpens in a new window )

The wisdom of spending billions on cutting carbon emissions before we face billions in fines for not doing it is one that cannot be grasped by the most sophisticated understanding of government.

The second climate issue that requires action is long-term preparation for the consequences of climate change, which are now inevitable. This requires investments in flood defenses, water management and capacity to cope with the extreme weather events that experts say are now likely to occur more frequently.

An open letter released last weekend by 44 experts from 15 countries warned of the danger of disruption to the system of ocean currents in the Atlantic Ocean, which, among other things, moderates Ireland’s climate through the Gulf Stream. Measurements suggest the flow is decreasing, a process driven by the melting of the Greenland ice sheet, and scientists fear it may be on the verge of closing completely. If that were to happen, it would have dramatic consequences for Ireland, making our climate – counter-intuitively – much, much colder. There is nothing Ireland can do on its own to stop this. But we can prepare for it.

Like many decisions facing governments, the best time to make this one was twenty years ago. But it would be unforgivable not to do it now. If this isn’t an election issue, I don’t know what is.

2. Immigration

People get nervous when this topic is discussed for all kinds of good reasons. But we can’t bury our heads in the sand; it must be part of the election debate.

Immigration is stirring politics across Europe and fueling the rise of far-right parties such as the Alternative for Germany (AfD) in Germany and the Freedom Party in Austria. At last week’s summit, EU leaders spent much of their time discussing the issue, with talk of tighter border controls, faster deportation of rejected asylum seekers and “hybrid warfare” by hostile countries sending migrants across borders. push to destabilize the EU Member States.

EU leaders are being pushed to harden their stance on migration by their own voters – they are either elected (like Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni) on promises to reduce migration, or they fear that if they who do not reduce migration will be replaced by someone who does. Voters across Europe have serious doubts about the level of migration to their country. You simply cannot avoid that.

( Not enough data is being collected on the integration of migrants into Irish society, the European body saysOpens in a new window )

The debate about migration here often tends to be refracted through the prism of the problems of housing people who come here seeking asylum or international protection. But this is only a subset of total migration – which includes people who come here legally with a work permit, people who come from EU countries and don’t need a work permit (just as the Irish don’t need one elsewhere in the EU); British-born people, many of Irish descent, moving here; and so forth. We need an immigration and asylum policy that is humane, credible, has public support and keeps Ireland open to the world in a sustainable way. Ireland needs migrants, but clearly – like anywhere else – it cannot handle an unlimited number of arrivals. Poll after poll confirms that immigration is a public concern. It would be foolish to ignore that.

3. The Irish economic model

The astonishing performance of the Irish economy over the past decade should not blind us to its vulnerabilities. Politicians and the public take this for granted, with the huge amount of corporate tax revenue generated in recent years, allowing the government to spend three years ahead of the election. There is a clear and present danger that the election campaign will turn into a mass auction, based on the idea that money will be no object. That would be extremely dangerous.

( The state expects the equivalent of another Apple windfall in the coming yearsOpens in a new window )

In fairness to the coalition, it has put large parts of the surpluses into long-term savings and investment funds, with a further 4 billion euros transferred this week. Less attention has been paid to keeping the engines of the Irish economy running. What is needed for this? Multinationals are crying out for investments in infrastructure. The universities that provide well-educated workers are in financial crisis. The cost of doing business has never been higher. Make your own long list.

( Irish companies were less concerned about geopolitical disruption than their counterparts abroadOpens in a new window )

There is no doubt that Ireland has been lucky. But as golfer Gary Player said, the more I practice, the luckier I get. Nothing is more important to our society than maintaining prosperity, which provides governments with the means to redistribute it to make that society better. It should be the number one priority in this and every election.