Iranians see different visions of the future in Trump, Harris – DW – 28/10/2024

In the shadow of the conflict between Iran and Israel, many Iranians are eagerly awaiting the outcome of the US presidential election.

In both confidential and recorded conversations, as recently seen in a CNN report from Tehran two weeks ago, many Iranians have said they would prefer to see Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump as the next US president.

Those surveyed said they see him as a strong leader who could tackle problems. According to them, a victory for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris would mean a continuation of the status quo in American politics.

“Under enormous pressure from a worsening economic crisis, many Iranians want fundamental change,” Iranian political journalist Fariba Pajooh told DW. “A good number of them see Donald Trump as someone who could end the political system of the Islamic Republic of Iran.”

“Trump’s statements are not only selectively observed in the US, but also in Iran,” Pajooh said. “Many Iranians believe he could overthrow the regime in Iran. Yet Trump repeatedly emphasizes that preventing an Iranian nuclear bomb is his top priority.”

Shadow of war

One month after Iran launched missile attacks on Israel, Israel counterattacked on October 25 and destroyed military targets in Iran, particularly missile production facilities, the report said. Jerusalem Post.

The attacks were aimed at damaging Iranian air defenses and hindering long-term ballistic missile development.

“It is impossible to predict what will happen next,” Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran program at the Middle East Institute in Washington, DC, told DW.

Vatanka said the US government had made it clear shortly before the election that it would not support any attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

“Israel’s counterattack, however, was not a symbolic act,” Vatanka said. “Twenty military sites in Iran were attacked. Israel has shown Iran what military capabilities it has, and that is exactly what the US wanted to see. Israel has clearly communicated its message and capabilities, and hopefully Iran has gotten the message to prevent further escalation.”

The fact that Iran is portraying Israel’s attack as small and causing limited damage could indicate that Tehran considers this round of escalation to be over, Vatanka said.

Iran’s nuclear program

As president, Trump withdrew the United States in 2018 from the Pt5+1 nuclear deal with Iran, which had been reached in late 2015 after several years of international involvement.

Trump said he would be able to negotiate a “better deal” than his predecessor, Barack Obama.

His policy of “maximum pressure” on Iran was ultimately unsuccessful: a year after he withdrew the United States, Iran began to gradually withdraw from its obligations under the agreement.

Iran is now believed to be closer than ever to building a nuclear bomb.

In September, Trump told reporters that the United States must reach an agreement with Iran to halt its nuclear program.

However, in the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel, Trump has spoken out in favor of an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities.

“Biden’s answer should have been: focus on the nuclear facilities first and worry about the rest later,” he said at an election event in early October – in direct contradiction to the official line of his successor as president of the US.

Israel views Iran’s nuclear program as an existential threat. Iran has warned that an Israeli attack on its nuclear facilities would provoke a severe response.

“For a successful attack on all Iranian nuclear facilities, Israel needs US support,” Sina Azodi, a lecturer at the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University in Washington, told DW.

Azodi said Iran’s nuclear facilities were spread across a number of sites, some built in underground bunkers, making it more difficult to completely destroy them.

“However, shortly before the elections, the US government wants to avoid getting involved in a war,” Azodi said.

Asked whether he was in favor of systemic change in Iran, Trump told Iranian-American podcaster Patrick Bet David on October 17: “We can’t totally interfere. Let’s face it, we can’t even govern ourselves.”

“I would like to see Iran become very successful,” Trump said. “The only problem is they can’t have nuclear weapons.”

Peace in the Middle East?

What will happen after the US presidential election remains to be seen. “If Kamala Harris wins the election, her government will likely try to reach temporary agreements with Iran,” Azodi said.

In the past, Harris has defended the Iran nuclear deal and viewed it as a major achievement of Obama’s presidency.

In her role as vice president, she has supported efforts to revive the agreement over the past four years. However, these attempts failed.

“If Donald Trump wins the election, he can bring about fundamental changes in US-Iranian relations,” Azodi said.

“He has the potential to unite all Iranian critics in the Republican Party behind him to broker another deal with Iran,” he added.

In an interview last week with Saudi state broadcaster Al Arabiya, Trump said that if elected he would include Iran in the Abraham Accords, along with at least a dozen other countries.

“The Abraham Accords were made during my presidency,” he said. “No one thought that was possible.”

The agreements signed at the White House in September 2020 normalized relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, and later Morocco.

Trump told Al Arabiya that peace in the Middle East would be possible under his leadership. The extension of the deal would entail a major realignment, with Iran, the biggest regional adversary of Israel and the United States, becoming an ally.

He gave no details on how he plans to make this big deal happen, and the regime in Iran, facing discontent at home and the possibility of an escalating conflict with Israel, has given no sign that it is willing to make a deal to close.

This article has been translated from German