Silver linings for Labor after Queensland election loss

After a deceptively intriguing election night, in which early counts gave the impression of a dramatic upset, Saturday’s result in Queensland played broadly to script and delivered a Liberal National Party majority based on a backlash against Labor in the regions of the state.

Steven Miles’ end-of-the-night speech may not have been the most graceful example of the genre, but we can at least be grateful that he didn’t act like he’d been robbed of a deserved victory when he was tarnished early and votes were cast were added by post. the count, as Donald Trump did in similar circumstances in 2020.

The positive for Labor is that the scale of the defeat was much smaller than what it faced in mid-year, when a series of polls showed David Crisafulli and the LNP leading by around 57-43 on the two-party preference.

By the end of the campaign, polls had dropped to around 53-47 – respectfully close to a final result that should be around 54-46 when the dust settles.

While this was undoubtedly a less than brilliant result for Labour, at least elected members will not be able to travel to Parliament in a shared Tarago, as was the case when the party was last removed from office in 2012.

So it seems clear that some favorable things must have happened in the months leading up to the day of reckoning — some of which may even have federal implications, which experts are generally happy to attribute to state outcomes.

Particularly surprising was the emergence of abortion as an issue—though perhaps it shouldn’t have been, given the apparent contagiousness of American political trends.

When a number of LNP candidates suggested they would vote in favor of Rob Katter’s bill to reverse the liberalization of the state’s abortion regime, David Crisafulli was presented with a fire he could not easily extinguish, given the party’s formal position to allow an abortion regime. conscience vote on this issue (not that this would have stopped the three LNP members who supported the 2018 reforms their preselections threatened).

For the Federal Coalition, the issue was an instructive reference to the problems that can be caused by its more doctrinaire element, which is increasingly emerging at the level of party membership.

Another pleasant surprise for Labor was the benevolent attitude of the state-owned monopoly newspaper Murdoch.

Normally the coalition can rely on this The courier post to complement his campaigns with a parade of anti-Labour hit pieces, but this time the front pages featured positive comments on a number of Labor policy announcements and a flattering photo of the now former Prime Minister, a week after the big day.

Crisafulli was also not spared from the blow over the divisions in his party over abortion and the evasive attitude that his small-target strategy entailed.

As for Labour, the federal party can take encouragement from the apparent success of splashy initiatives on public transport and free school meals, giving it something to campaign on, despite the unhelpful message the former party sent to the yet already alienated regional voters.

Conversely, it was a disappointing evening for the smaller parties: One Nation emerged empty-handed, rumors of a North Queensland passage by Katter’s Australian Party proved overhyped, and the Greens dropped one of their two seats after winning a high vote. expectations for the campaign had begun. of repeating their extraordinary 2022 federal successes.

However, none of this should be exaggerated. The combined votes of the major parties continue to fall, however slightly on this particular occasion, and the Greens would likely have retained South Brisbane if the LNP voting map had recommended putting Labor last, as in 2020.

The result in South Brisbane was again a sign of the times, in that Labor held up reasonably well in the inner city areas, while collapsing further afield.

The party’s expulsion from Townsville, Rockhampton and most of the state’s far north echoes federal trends in Herbert and Capricornia, where the party may now be shut out for good after historically being competitive or better.

In contrast, Labor remained untroubled in the traditional suburbs of Mansfield and Mount Ommaney, offering at least a glimmer of hope that it can still win federal seats in Brisbane that held out against the tide in 2022.

Is the Queensland result a sign of things to come for the federal ALP? Let us know your thoughts by writing to [email protected]. To be considered for publication, you must include your full name. We reserve the right to edit for length and clarity.