Yahya Sinwar killed, what will happen for Israel and Hamas?

Two on October 21 Hamas sources revealed to the media that the idea of appointing a leader would be successful Yahya Sinwar, murdered on October 16, had been ruled out, at least for the time being.

The Hamas leadership, which operated at arm’s length from Gaza in the Gulf state of Qatar, had decided that the organization would be led, at least until March 2025, by the five-member committee established in August after the assassination of political leader Ismail Haniyeh. .

The committee, based in Doha, the capital of Qatar, consists of Khalil al-Hayya, Khaled Mashaal, Zaher Jabareen, Mohammed Darwish and the Secretary of the Political Bureau, whose identity remains anonymous for security reasons.

The internal dynamics of the Hamas organization were certainly seriously shaken, yet a well-informed source, well aware of its internal workings, struck an interesting note.

Sadeq Abu Amer, head of the Turkey-based think tank Palestinian Dialogue Group, interviewed by the Associated Press, believed that the removal of Sinwar, whom he called “one of the most prominent hawks within the movement,” would likely lead to “ the progression of a trend or direction that can be described as dove(-like)”.

Yahya Sinwar, former leader of the Palestinian Islamist Hamas movement during a meeting with members of Palestinian factions at the Hamas President’s office in Gaza City, on April 13, 2022 (credit: ATTIA MUHAMMED/FLASH90)

He indicated that with Sinwar out of the picture, a hostage exchange agreement had become practical politics.

Abu Amer quickly dismissed any suggestion that Sinwar’s brother Mohammed, if still alive, could replace him as leader of Hamas. “Mohammed Sinwar is the head of the battle,” he said, “but he will not be Sinwar’s heir as head of the political bureau.”

Although somewhat wrong, as it turned out, he believed that Hamas’s Qatar-based political leaders might decide to choose one of their own to lead the organization. He identified the two frontrunners as al-Hayya and Mashaal.

Al-Hayya, 63, was Sinwar’s deputy and led the Hamas delegation in the ceasefire negotiations.

In an April 2024 interview, al-Hayya said that Hamas was willing to conclude a ceasefire of at least five years with Israel, and that if an independent Palestinian state were created along the 1967 borders, the group would disband its military wing and would become a purely Palestinian state. political party.

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Mashaal, 68, was the group’s political leader from 1996 to 2017.

He was the subject of an assassination attempt in 1997 and now supports the forces opposing Syrian President Bashar Assad in the 13-year civil war still raging in Syria.

Consequently, he is not on good terms with Iran, nor with Hezbollah. He has good relations with Turkey and Qatar.

Jabareen, once sentenced to 35 years in prison for the deaths of two Israeli police officers on the Temple Mount, was released after a prisoner swap.

He led the resumption of suicide bombings in Israel in 2023. Darwish, also known as Abu Omar Hassan, has been chairman of the Hamas Shura Council since October 2023.

THE INITIAL REACTIONS to the news of Sinwar’s death on October 16 reflected hopes in many quarters that a ceasefire in Gaza and the return of the hostages were only a small step away.

Such immediate expectations seemed to be quickly undermined. The first public statement after Sinwar’s death, made by his Qatar-based deputy al-Hayya, was that there would be no hostage release without “the end of the aggression… and the withdrawal from Gaza.”

A nuanced response

Israel’s position immediately after Sinwar’s death was nuanced. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s initial reaction was that the war was not over. “Evil has been dealt a heavy blow,” he said, “but the task before us is not yet complete.”

But in a media message, Netanyahu offered Hamas terrorists free passage from the Gaza Strip in exchange for the release of hostages. Anyone who laid down their arms and returned hostages, Netanyahu said, would be allowed to leave Gaza.

Could this formula form the basis for a final hostage return deal? Possibly – provided that Hamas’s new Qatar-based leadership committee is indeed to that extent more pragmatic (more “dove-like” as Abu Amer put it) than its aggressive former leader.

A reassessment of Hamas’s situation and prospects could convince the leadership that repositioning the organization outside the Gaza Strip could be the most effective way to withdraw and recover.

Given the enormous losses of manpower that Hamas has already suffered, it is certainly preferable to continue fighting to the last man in Gaza.

This scenario, if it were to materialize, would not sit well with the ambitions of US President Joe Biden, Vice President and presidential candidate Kamala Harris, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and the many other Western leaders who are so free to give advice on how Israel should do that. action.

The accepted international position is that Israel must de-escalate on all fronts, negotiating an exchange of hostages and prisoners in Gaza that would include an Israeli ceasefire, its attacks on Hezbollah strongholds in Beirut and the rest of Lebanon must stop, and only minimally respond to Iran’s massive attacks. rocket launch into Israel on October 1.

It turns out that Israel’s response, while far from minimal, was effectively targeted.

Netanyahu’s policy of slowly but surely eliminating the leadership of the Iranian-backed terrorist armies in Gaza, Lebanon and the rest of the axis of evil, while depleting and depleting their manpower, is clearly working.

No chance of success

The West’s continued advocacy for unenforceable ceasefires, peace agreements and de-escalation would never have succeeded.

Against jihadist enemies committed to its destruction, such appeasement by Israel would only have served to ensure the continuation of the multi-directional existential threat.

However, in the strictly limited area of the Gaza war, Sinwar’s elimination may have opened a glimmer of hope. Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar is said to have visited Cairo on October 20 to discuss a possible revival of hostage negotiations.

Two days later, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Israel, where he reiterated his position that Israel should seek to exploit the advantage gained from Sinwar’s assassination and continue to negotiate a hostage deal . Netanyahu would have agreed.

Blinken moved on to Egypt, where reports suggest discussions will include the future governance and reconstruction of Gaza, including the creation of an international force to oversee the process.

According to an October 19 report in The Wall Street Journal, Sinwar told Hamas negotiators in Qatar that Israel would make concessions if he was killed.

In this regard, if nothing else, he was apparently not wrong. On October 21, Israeli TV Channel 12 claimed that Israel had recently indicated to the US that it was willing to make concessions previously considered unfeasible.

It was not stated what such concessions might entail, but they could be based on Netanyahu’s offer of free passage.

If the report is true, their success could depend on how flexible Hamas’s reconstituted leadership could choose in the post-Sinwar era.

The writer is the Middle East correspondent for Eurasia Review. His latest book is Trump and the Holy Land: 2016-2020. Follow him at: www.a-mid-east-journal.blogspot.com.