College football Week 10 odds, picks: Ohio State vs. Penn State highlights early bets

I know it’s always been at the bottom of the college football barrel, but UConn is actually good this season. That’s because of his defense.

The Huskies rank sixth nationwide in EPA/Play and have allowed just 4.7 yards per play. In fact, through their last three games, they are one of only three teams allowing fewer than four yards per play.

This is an elite team against both the run and the pass, ranking in the top 15 in both Rushing and Passing Success Rates.

In this game it is mainly the secondary that is tested. Georgia State throws the ball on 57% of its offensive plays, but both quarterbacks have struggled at times.

Head coach Dell McGee switched from Christian Veilleux to Zach Gibson over the past two games, but he hasn’t been much better.

He posted a sub-70 PFF Passing grade against Marshall and Appalachian State, and every time he is pressured his effectiveness drops significantly.

Additionally, the wind is blowing at a speed of 10 miles per hour, which affects the passing game.

Georgia State also cannot move the ball effectively at all and is outside the top 100 in every rushing metric. UConn, meanwhile, is in the top 15 in Stuff Rate and EPA/Rush Allowed, so I don’t see how Georgia State moves the ball effectively in this game.

On the other hand, UConn uses a trio of running backs, but Durell Robinson was the most effective.

He averages over seven yards per attempt as he is incredibly difficult to bring down on first contact. In fact, he has averaged 4.8 yards per carry after first touch and has a PFF Rushing grade of 89.2, which ranks him in the top 10 in college football.

He also has an excellent offensive line and boasts the second-best PFF Run Blocking grade in the country.

Georgia State ranks 111th in Defensive Line Yards and 112th in EPA/Rush Allowed, so the Huskies should be able to run the ball at will.

All three projection models project the Huskies well north of a touchdown, so I like its value at -6.5

Pick: UConn -6.5 (FanDuel)