What Trump promised in 2016 about tariffs. And what he delivered (a lot). (Video)

It’s been eight years since Donald Trump — then in the final stages of his first presidential campaign — made a series of promises on trade and tariffs as he stormed the country.

A Yahoo Finance review of those speeches found that his promises, while less sweeping than today and with some Trumpian touches that never materialized, were promises that he ultimately largely kept.

On October 5, 2016, in front of a crowd in Henderson, Nev., the then-candidate promised to “apply tariffs and taxes to the countries that cheat… that way our companies can compete and we don’t lose our jobs.”

“We will set rates,” he said added a few days later in Gettysburg, Pennsylvania. “There must be consequences.”

He then went on to a term in which he pursued and implemented very similar policies.

There were examples of apparent fuss, such as a promise to impose a 35% tariff on specific companies, but what Trump showed during his 2016 election campaign is that trade is an area where he has a reputation for keeping his word .

“He’s not very agile on trade issues, and he does what he says he’s going to do,” William Alan Reinsch of the Center for Strategic and International Studies said in a recent interview.

Reinsch, a former trade lawyer and Secretary of Commerce, added to Trump’s current promises for both blanket tariffs and new tariffs on China: “I think he means it and I think he will do it.” The most important question, he says, is whether the courts will intervene to block this.

Trump’s 2016 promises are instructive for today, with the now third-party candidate set to set a new and sweeping trade agenda if he wins.

In addition to general tariffs of 10% or higher, he promises tariffs of 60% for China. He also promises things like a Trump Reciprocal Trade Act that would automatically impose tariffs on countries in response to their duties to the US – “an eye for an eye, a tariff for a tariff.” as Trump put it.

These varied promises come as some of Trump’s business allies — reflecting the deep unpopularity of tariffs among business leaders — have tried to play down the talk as a blunder or a negotiating tactic, even as Trump often repeats and doubles them at almost every stop.

‘I believe in tariffs’

Another examination of Trump’s varied 2016 campaign promises conducted by PolitiFact at the end of his first term, he also found that the candidate had delivered on trade.

He promised that during that campaign impose tariffsUnpleasant renegotiating NAFTA, And withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership. “Promise kept,” PolitiFact said of all three.

Trump also took action on a fourth promise to declare China a currency manipulator but ended with a compromise, according to the group.

Many of Trump’s promises on other issues that year – such as removing all illegal immigrants from the US and another to repeal Obamacare – have not materialized and are now coming back as virtually identical promises in 2024.

On trade, Trump has been able to change the political landscape around tariffs, meaning he can make new and much bigger promises – with higher economic stakes.

Trump has likened his tariff plan to a new US “ring around the collar”, with tariffs often described not as part of the negotiations, but with those high tariffs as the end goal in themselves to protect American industry.

“We’re going to protect those companies with strong tariffs, because I believe in tariffs,” Trump said at the Chicago Economic Club earlier this month.

And that may also require high tariff revenues paying for Trump’s many other campaign promiseswith the former president even often talk warmly about the era of William McKinley and the 1890s.

That was an era in American history before the income tax, when tariffs were a major driver of the federal government’s revenues.

“He has set views on trade,” Reinsch notes of Trump. “He has had the same views for 40 years.”

The trade promises that Trump failed to keep in 2016

Yahoo Finance’s review of speeches – which examined Trump’s stops during the month of October 2016 – found some examples of how his discussion of trade has changed.

For starters, tariff discussions were much less common at the time.

At many of Trump’s closing rallies that year, according to an examination of the transcripts, the word tariff was never mentioned, even though it became a centerpiece of his economic policies once he took power.

Although trade topics were discussed, the word tariff was not included one of the three 2016 debates between Trump and Hillary Clinton, according to a review of the transcripts.

Trump also made some trade promises during that campaign that were not kept, especially when it came to threats against specific companies.

He often talked about 35% tariffs targeting anyone who moved jobs abroad.

“If a company wants to lay off its employees, move to Mexico or other countries and ship its products back to the United States, we will impose a 35% tax or tariff on those products,” he said. he promised eight years ago in Toledo, Ohio.

Such company-specific duties never came into being, nor is it clear that they would have been legal if Trump had tried.

“Companies like Apple (AAPL) will make their iPhones and other products in the United States,” Trump said also promised in 2016 during a stop in North Carolina. “You look.”

That didn’t happen because most of Apple’s iPhones are still made abroad to this day, although the company did announce some US expansions during the Trump years, such as as a factory in Texas that makes desktop computers.

Trump has also talked about it recently granting the Apple exceptions to his past (and possibly future) duties and says CEO Tim Cook has been in regular direct contact.

To this day, Trump continues to single out specific companies that he thinks are bothering him.

A favorite punching bag in recent months has been John Deere (THE), with Trump in September promising a 200% rate about imports and “anything you want to sell in the United States” if the company moves to Mexico.

Trump later suggested that the company had changed its mind about moving production to Mexico in response to his threats.

The company has publicly rejected Trump’s claims, calls them completely fictional.

Ben Werschkul is Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance.

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