Myanmar’s civil war has taken a new shape over the past year thanks to a coordinated offensive by powerful resistance groups

BANGKOK – Three well-armed militias launched a joint surprise offensive in the northeast Myanmar a year ago, breaking a strategic standoff with the regime’s military by quickly capturing vast swathes of territory, inspiring others to attack across the country.

Before the offensive, the army’s control seemed to be firmly entrenched in its vast superiority in troops and firepower, and aided by material support from Russia and China. But today it has faded into the background, with the loss of dozens of outposts, bases and strategic cities which even its leaders admit will be a challenge to regain.

How did the offensive proceed?

The military seized power from Aung San Suu Kyi’s elected government in February 2021, sparking intensified fighting with long-standing armed groups linked to Myanmar’s ethnic minority groups and leading to the formation of new pro- democratic militias.

But until the launch of Operation 1027, named after its Oct. 27 start, the military, known as the Tatmadaw, had largely been able to prevent major losses across the country.

Operation 1027 involved coordinated attacks by three of the most powerful ethnic armed groups – the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, the Arakan Army and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, together known as the Three Brotherhood Alliance – and they were able to quickly to take cities. and overran military bases and outposts along the Chinese border in northeastern Shan State.

Two weeks later the The Arakan Army launched attacks in his home western state Rakhineand other militia groups and PDFs have since joined across the country.

A year later, after the start of the offensive, resistance forces now control all or part of a vast horseshoe-shaped area stretching from Rakhine State in the west, across the north, and then south to Kayah and Kayin states along the Thai border . The Tatmadaw have withdrawn towards the center around the capital Naypyidaw and the largest city Yangon.

What comes next?

Many expect the army to launch a counter-offensive when the rainy season ends soon, boosted by the influx of some 30,000 new troops since then. activate conscription in February and continued complete air superiority.

But at the same time, resistance groups are approaching Mandalay, Myanmar’s second-largest city in the center of the country.

Faced with threats from across the country, “it appears there is no viable route back for the military to retake the lost territory,” said Connor Macdonald of the advocacy group the Special Advisory Council on Myanmar.

“The military is on the defensive across the country, and every time it puts its energy into one part of the country, it essentially has to move troops and is then left vulnerable in other parts,” he said.

What happened to the civilian population of Myanmar?

As the military has faced setbacks in fighting on the ground, it has become increasingly dependent on indiscriminate air and artillery strikes, resulting in a 95% increase in civilian deaths from airstrikes and a 170% increase in civilians killed by artillery since the 1027 offensive. According to a report last month from the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, this has begun.

The Tatmadaw has been accused of deliberately aimed at citizens in retaliation for its alleged support for the resistance militias, something it denies.

Hundreds of thousands of civilians have been displaced by the fighting, and there are now a total of more than 3 million internally displaced people in Myanmar, and around 18.6 million people in need, the UN said.

What happens if the military regime falls?

As the front has expanded, it has seen militias emerge from their own ethnic areas, such as when the Rakhine-based Arakan Army took the Chin town of Paletwa in January, sparking some friction between groups – a harbinger of possible future problems if the Tatmadaw war were to happen. eventually fall.

Currently, there is a degree of solidarity between disparate ethnic groups, with an emphasis on a common enemy, but Aung Thu Nyein, director of communications at the Institute for Strategy and Policy-Myanmar think tank, said this does not translate into common ground. ambitions.

Should the Tatmadaw fall, it could lead to the fragmentation of Myanmar unless the groups work hard to resolve political and territorial differences.

“It is unlikely that the resistance will be able to overthrow the junta, but I cannot discount this scenario,” he said. “If we cannot build trust and common goals, this could lead to the Syria scenario.”

Complicating the political picture is the influence of neighboring China, which is believed to have tacitly supported the 1027 Offensive in what proved to be a successful attempt to stem organized crime activities flourishing along the border.

In January, Beijing used its close ties with both the Tatmadaw and Three Brotherhood groups to negotiate a ceasefire in northern Shan that lasted five months until the ethnic alliance broke up in June in phase two of the 1027 offensive opened, accusing the army of violating the ceasefire.

Dissatisfied with the development, China has closed border crossings, cut electricity to Myanmar cities and taken other measures in a so-far unsuccessful attempt to end the fighting.