Early voting shows strong Republican mobilization in swing states | Elections 2024

The campaign is in its final phase. Both Donald Trump And Kamala Harris will tour key swing states, where the election results will likely be determined. For 42 million Americans, however, the choice has already been made: they have cast their ballots, in person or by mail, through the early voting options their states offer. This figure is lower than 2020, which saw record early voting due to the pandemic.

Show current data strong early rise among Republican registered voters, especially in swing states, although it is unclear what this means for the bottom line. Unlike in 2020, when Trump and Republicans expressed doubts about voting by mail and urged their supporters to vote in person on Election Day, this time they are actively promoting early voting.

In the United States, each state organizes its voting process independently, guided by the minimum requirements established by federal law. The rules and timelines for early voting by mail and in person vary, as do regulations surrounding voter registration, identification, ballot formats and counting methods. Some states make registration and voting easy, while others are poorly organized, often resulting in long lines. The release of early voting information also varies; some provide data on party affiliation – Republican, Democratic or Independent – ​​while others do not. Similarly, some states report data on voters’ age, gender, and race, although most do not make this information public. The result is that the overall image remains blurry.

According to the latest data from the University of Florida’s Election Lab, 42 million Americans voted early. This represents 27% of the 155 million American voters who participated in the 2020 election, although this figure is still significantly lower than the number who voted at the same point in the election cycle four years ago.

To date, 21.1 million citizens have cast their votes in person at designated polling stations, while another 21.3 million votes have been submitted by post – a method requested by more than 65 million people. These early voting numbers are the second highest in history. In 2020, the pandemic led to unprecedented levels of early voting, as states implemented measures to minimize the risk of infection – many of which are still in place. About 70% of votes in those elections were cast early or by mail.

Overall, registered Democrats are currently in the lead with 8.4 million ballots, representing 40% of the votes identified. However, their lead over Republicans has narrowed significantly compared to 2020, with Republicans casting 7.6 million votes, or 36% of the total. Furthermore, 4.8 million citizens – 24% of the total – have identified themselves as independents, who are not registered with any party or affiliated with minor parties. It is important to note that registering with a party does not guarantee that a voter will support that party. In addition, data on more than twenty million voters is unavailable because they voted in states that do not reveal their party affiliation.

Although early voting has declined nationally, it remains near or higher than levels four years ago in the seven battleground states. This is where Republicans are particularly increasing their mobilization compared to 2020. During the last election cycle, Trump promoted conspiracy theories about mail-in voting manipulation, and urged voters to cast their votes on Election Day. This year, however, he is celebrating and encouraging early voting, albeit not consistently.

“We are setting all records with the votes. The early vote is a record (sic). The Trump people are coming out, they’re voting like crazy. And normally we get our big votes at the end,’ the former president said Friday at a rally in Traverse City, Michigan. “It will be the greatest political victory in the history of our country.”

Of the seven swing states, three do not make it easy for voters to register their political beliefs: Georgia, where turnout has been record-breaking, Michiganand Wisconsin. In North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada, Republicans are in the lead – unlike in 2020. And in Pennsylvania, the Democratic lead is significantly smaller than in 2020.

In North Carolina, true Despite logistical challenges, records are being set Related to Hurricane Helene recovery efforts, Republicans cast 940,000 ballots (34.3%), while Democrats cast 910,000 (33.2%) and independents cast 891,000. In 2020, Trump won North Carolina by just 1.3 points, even though Democrats had a 15-point lead in early voting at this stage.

Arizona shows an even clearer trend. Current numbers indicate 542,000 Republican votes (42%), compared to 454,000 Democratic votes (35%) and 297,000 independents (23%). This is a significant contrast to the 10-point lead Democrats enjoyed at this point in 2020, when Joe Biden won Arizona by just 10,457 votes.

A similar trend is occurring in Nevada, where Republicans have erased the Democrats’ earlier 10-point advantage and now lead by five points. Currently, 244,000 Republicans have cast ballots (40%), compared to 213,000 Democrats (35%) and 155,000 independents (25%). In 2020, Biden won the state by 2.4 points.

In PennsylvaniaHowever, Democrats maintain a clear lead and benefit from a system that relies solely on voting by mail, as there is no in-person early voting. This method, which has been heavily criticized by Republicans in the past, is now being promoted by the party. Of the ballots received in this crucial state, 762,000 (59.4%) are from registered Democrats, while 390,000 (30.4%) are from Republicans and 130,000 (10.2%) are from independents.

While this may seem like a success for Democrats, it’s worth noting that they had a similar margin on Election Day in 2020, with a split of about 70% to 20% in their favor. Ultimately, Biden won Pennsylvania by just one point after all the ballots were counted. This year, the counting process may be a little faster than in 2020, when mail-in ballots were accepted up to three days after Election Day. This time the deadline is November 5, 8:00 PM.

The increase in early voting among Republicans, along with Trump’s improved ranking in opinion polls and betting markets, as well as favorable trends in Treasuries and the dollar, appear to be tilting the balance somewhat in the former president’s favor. However, the distortions caused by Covid-19 four years ago and the 180-degree shift in Republican leadership on early voting mean that these numbers should be analyzed with caution. Counting, including early vote counting, does not begin until Election Day, and it is then, or in the following days, that the winner will be determined.

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