Trump’s Dangerous Gamble in Taiwan – Taipei Times

A return to power of former US President Donald Trump would pose serious risks to Taiwan’s security, autonomy and the broader stability of the Indo-Pacific region. The stakes have never been higher as China aggressively escalates its pressure on Taiwan, deploying economic, military and psychological tactics to bring the nation under Beijing’s control.

The US has long served as Taiwan’s main security partner, a bulwark against Chinese expansionism in the region. However, a second Trump presidency could upend decades of U.S. commitments, creating unpredictability that could embolden Beijing and seriously endanger Taiwan’s position.

While president, Trump’s foreign policy reflected a transactional approach, emphasizing costs, obligations, and imbalances rather than strategic alliances. He often questioned the value of U.S. partnerships and treated security commitments as dependent on financial returns or clear benefits to the U.S.

When it comes to Taiwan, such an approach is fraught with risks. Trump’s comments that Taiwan must “pay for protection” reflect a troubling shift in U.S. strategy. He has suggested that Taiwan should dramatically increase its defense spending, to as much as 10 percent of GDP, a figure significantly higher than what even NATO allies are expected to pay.

For Taiwan, a country facing an existential threat from China, such financial demands are not only burdensome; they are also destabilizing because they put American support on shaky ground.

Moreover, Trump’s stance on U.S. alliances signals a willingness to abandon traditional partners if they do not meet his demands, regardless of the broader strategic implications. Such an isolationist approach undermines the spirit of American foreign policy that has maintained global stability since World War II.

Allies like Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines have historically relied on U.S. protection, and Taiwan, while not a formal ally, is even more dependent on U.S. support because of its unique security challenges.

Trump’s transactional mentality could leave allies wondering whether the U.S. will truly stick to its commitments when challenged by a formidable adversary like China. For Taiwan, this uncertainty could lead to further instability, reducing deterrence against Chinese aggression.

Strategic ambiguity and Washington’s long-standing policy of leaving Beijing uncertain about the extent of U.S. intervention in Taiwan’s defense have helped keep peace in the Taiwan Strait for decades. However, Trump’s comments questioning the importance of Taiwan, or even suggesting that the US might abandon the country, end this essential deterrent.

Throughout his presidency, Trump has made statements that diminished Taiwan’s value compared to larger U.S. priorities in managing relations with China. Such unpredictable reporting undermines the strategic ambiguity that deters Chinese aggression, creating a dangerous environment in which Beijing could gamble on Washington’s hesitation to engage.

Beijing, under the increasingly assertive leadership of Chinese President Xi Jinping, is closely monitoring the situation. Xi has explicitly set unification with Taiwan as a national goal, and Trump’s rhetoric could inadvertently embolden China’s ambitions by suggesting that the US may not live up to its commitment to Taiwan’s security.

China could interpret Trump’s perceived indifference or transactional approach as an opportunity to more aggressively stake its claim on Taiwan, whether through military intimidation, economic coercion or cyberwarfare.

That perception, coupled with Trump’s reluctance to intervene on behalf of U.S. allies without immediate benefit, would signal to Beijing that Washington’s willingness to protect Taiwan could be waning — a shift that puts the calculus in the Taiwan Strait on could change dangerously.

The inconsistencies in Trump’s policies are especially problematic for Taiwan’s economy, which plays a crucial role in the global technology supply chain, especially in semiconductor manufacturing. Taiwan’s advanced semiconductor industry is critical to U.S. and global industries, from automotive to defense technology. Despite this, Trump has criticized Taiwan for “profiting” from US industries, especially in the semiconductor industry, and has suggested that Taiwan does not contribute enough economically to merit US support.

His emphasis on a bilateral trade balance could lead him to pressure Taiwan to reduce its trade surplus with the US, undermining Taiwan’s economy and shifting focus from cooperative strategies that advance the countries’ interests in technology and security have been strengthened. That economic friction would not only weaken Taiwan’s crucial industry but could also drive a wedge between the partners, damaging a relationship vital to Taiwan’s independence and U.S. technological advantage.

In contrast to Trump’s isolationist tendencies, US President Joe Biden’s administration has taken a more comprehensive approach to Taiwan, boosting security support and deepening economic and diplomatic ties. For example, the Biden administration has expanded U.S. support to Taiwan, facilitating access to military resources, strengthening trade ties and building an international coalition in support of Taiwan’s autonomy.

Biden has repeatedly emphasized the importance of alliances and, unlike Trump, has made clear public commitments to Taiwan’s defense. Trump’s return would likely mark a return to an erratic, single-issue approach to foreign policy that prioritizes economic grievances over strategic partnerships, endangering the foundations of Taiwan’s security.

A second Trump term would also undermine the international support Taiwan has received as a democracy on the front lines of a broader ideological conflict between democratic and authoritarian powers. Taiwan’s struggle for self-determination resonates worldwide and symbolizes the defense of democratic values. Recent diplomatic efforts have elevated Taiwan’s stature on the international stage and portrayed the country as an important partner in upholding democratic ideals.

However, Trump’s skepticism toward alliances based on values ​​rather than monetary returns could dismantle these efforts. His rhetoric downplaying the ideological divide between democracies and autocracies would weaken Taiwan’s position as a symbol of democratic resilience, embolden authoritarian states, and undermine global solidarity for Taiwan.

Given these challenges, a Trump presidency could lead Taiwan to step up its defense spending or seek alliances elsewhere, potentially bringing the country closer to regional powers like Japan. However, no other country can take over the role the US plays in Taiwan’s security, and any realignment outside Washington would ultimately weaken Taiwan’s defenses.

The ripple effects of a U.S. withdrawal from Taiwanese security would extend beyond the country, upsetting regional allies and sending a signal that the U.S. could abandon other commitments in Asia. China, sensing such rifts in US-led alliances, could increase its assertiveness in the region, endangering peace not only in the Taiwan Strait but in the entire Indo-Pacific region.

Ultimately, Trump’s approach to foreign policy—characterized by isolationism, inconsistency, and a narrow focus on transactional gains—stands in stark contrast to the strategic and values-driven policies that have supported Taiwan’s autonomy. His willingness to view Taiwan through a lens of financial costs, rather than as a key partner in a region critical to U.S. interests, threatens to undermine Taiwan’s security and U.S. credibility. At a time when Taiwan’s defense requires unwavering support and a clear strategy, Trump’s approach could spell disaster, endangering Taiwan and destabilizing the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific region.

Y. Tony Yang is an endowed professor and associate professor at George Washington University. He received his law degree from National Taiwan University and his doctorate from Harvard University.