The race between Anna Paulina Luna and Whitney Fox is closer than most expected, apparently even for the GOP

Last week, a poll emerged showing that Republican U.S. Rep. Anna Paulina Luna locked up a dead heat against Democratic challenger Whitney Fox in Florida’s 13th congressional district.

Before that, a poll from the same outfit, St. Pete Polls, found Fox actually manage Luna by 4 percentage points. While that poll came as a shock and was an outlier, there’s no denying that things are closer than most would have predicted in an R+6 district.

Don’t believe the polls? What about fundraising?

Fox has been constantly surpassing Luna in each fundraising period this year, and by the end of the third quarter of 2024, the amount had come within about $5,000 of the incumbent in cash, with Luna entering the fourth quarter with $812,000, compared to $807,000 in the bank for Fox.

There is also institutional support.

The Democrats have almost completely adopted Fox’s candidacy. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has placed Fox in the ‘Red to Blue’ programwhich aims to support candidates committed to dethroning Republican incumbents in races the party considers winnable. Fox is the only Florida Democrat to create the program, and it is one of only 33 candidates nationally named after it.

There are indications that at least some within the Republican Party are taking the pressure seriously.

The Win It Back PAC, which is affiliated with the conservative Club for Growth, dropped nearly $150,000 on television and digital ads this weekend attacking Fox. The group actively supports Luna, including raising money for her.

They have two polls showing Luna with a significant lead over Foxwith the most recent Cook Political Report analysis of the race putting it at R+6, at 51% to 45%. An earlier poll by Club voor Groei in August showed that Luna had a five-point lead.

To be clear, it is not unusual for partisan organizations to drop money on races, even when there is a clear frontrunner. Conventional campaign wisdom holds that every candidate should run as if he or she is behind, regardless of what the polls or fundraising say. That remains true.

But a look at other spending around the same time as the Win It Back spending in Luna’s race gives reason to think that Club for Growth may be a bit more concerned than polls would otherwise suggest.

Most of the weekend spending — over $146,000 – went to a television ad attacking Fox. A few thousand more moved towards digital advertising and also attacked Fox. Previously, the PAC dropped more than $156,000 on television ads and more than $4,000 on digital ads attacking Fox. That all came after the last poll showed Luna and Fox tied, although it was possible and even likely that the ads were planned before the poll came out.

The group spent another more than $150,000 on TV ads opposing Fox in early October, well before the most recent poll.

But Fox is also one of only a dozen candidates in the top 60 of expenditure listed by the Federal Election Commission for Win It Back.

In the meantime, Win It Back has released less than $2,000 attacked this weekend Dave minthe Democrat taking on the Republican Scott Baugh for Democratic U.S. Rep.’s vacation of California seat. Katie Porter. That is considered a swing district. There, a recent poll shows Baugh ahead of Min by just under 4 percentage points. The race is a pick-up opportunity for the GOP, unlike Luna’s race, which the GOP is championing.

The expenses on Fox are certainly not Win It Back’s heaviest expenses. The group has dropped at least $4.6 million in counter-television advertising this month Colin Allred in Texas, where he is challenging the incumbent Republican U.S. senator. Ted Cruz. Last month they spent over $3.2 million fighting Allred.

Another top goal is Ruben Gallegowho encounters Kari Lake for the U.S. Senate in Arizona. Win It Back lost nearly $2.3 million against Gallego last week.

Jackie Rosenthe U.S. senator from Nevada, is another top target as Republicans look to flip her seat. Win It Back spent more than $5.7 million on television advertisements attacking her from August to early October. And those are just the major purchases.

So while the spending against Fox is just a drop in the bucket compared to some competitive Senate races across the country, it’s still significant and a sign that Republicans are at least a little worried about Luna’s chances.

“What that tells me is that Whitney Fox is going to win on Tuesday night,” says chairman of the Florida Democratic Party Nikki Fried told Florida Politics reporter Jacob Ogles this week. “Whitney Fox has been a great candidate, showing the people in her community exactly what to expect from a member of Congress, after not once, after two hurricanes, fighting for her constituents before they were even her constituents. ”

Still, a Fox victory would undoubtedly happen be considered an upsetand no one is suggesting that these spending habits mean Luna will go under.

But it underlines how volatile this election cycle has been. Republicans, especially those who have openly embraced the more extreme positions of the Republican Party under the former president Donald Trump – as Luna has done – they are faced with close races, even in districts that might not otherwise be competitive.

Luna, for example, won her district just two years ago by about 8 percentage points. There were similarities. Just like Fox, Luna’s opponent two years ago, Eric Lynnwas a centrist Democrat and proved to be a strong fundraiserraising over $2 million at this point in his race that cycle, with almost $600,000 remaining, more than Luna had at the time.

And the district has only become redder since 2022. At the time, Republicans controlled just over 37% of the electorate, compared to nearly 32% for Democrats and more than 29% for independents. According to figures, Republicans now account for almost 39% of the electorate, while less than 30% are Democrats and almost 29% independents. L2 voter data.

Voters in Texas are seeing similar trends in Allred’s race against Cruz, where a Democrat appears to be over-performing in a red state as some view Cruz as less than savory.

No one has a crystal ball to say whether being labeled an extremist is enough to topple Trump-aligned Republicans in this cycle, and even if it happens in one race, it’s not likely to happen in all .

But the spending shows that Democrats are playing ball in districts that once might not have been considered winnable, and the Republican Party is taking the threat seriously.

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