Free agent options, prospect projections and more

The PhilliesThe fifth starter carousel started spinning before opening day in 2024.

A shoulder injury landed presumptive fifth starter Taijuan Walker on the injured list in the final week of spring training, so the Phillies turned to Spencer Turnbull to start the season in the rotation. Turnbull became the first of six pitchers (not including openers) who would get a shot in that fifth slot.

Some stuck around for a few weeks. Some received multiple calls. But none of Walker, Turnbull, Tyler Phillips, Kolby Allard, Michael Mercado or Seth Johnson were able to solidify the fifth spot as his own, and so the carousel continued.

With only four starters needed in the National League Division Series, the rotation wasn’t the reason the Phillies faltered in the playoffs. But the overall lack of consistency was an issue raised by Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski during his end-of-season press conference, an issue he pointed to as a reason for the Phillies’ decline after the All-Star break.

“If you look at the fifth place we had, that wasn’t a good place for us at all the last two months of the season,” Dombrowski said. “… Suddenly we’re not going there with a consistent five-man rotation anymore, which I think is very important.”

The current rotation

Before we consider some moves Dombrowski could make to establish that consistency, let’s start with the pieces the Phillies already have in place. Zack Wheeler has put together another Cy Young Award-caliber season in 2024. Aaron Nola was durable and reliable. Cristopher Sánchez established himself as a key rotation piece and was named an All-Star for the first time.

Ranger Suárez had an All-Star start to the season, but lost his form in the second half after recovering from a lower back injury. His fastball velocity dropped, and his performance suffered, with Suárez posting a 2.76 ERA in the first half and a 5.65 after the All-Star break. Still, Suárez put together a solid Game 4 performance in the NLDS, although it was lost to the Phillies offense.

Wheeler (200 innings), Nola (199⅓) and Sánchez (181⅔) were three of 21 pitchers in the majors to throw more than 180 innings in the regular season. All three signed contract extensions last year. Wheeler is under team control until 2027, and Nola and Sánchez are under team control until 2030.

Suárez, on the other hand, will become a free agent in 2026. Dombrowski doesn’t like to discuss his plans for contract extensions, and any offseason deal involving the 29-year-old Suárez is no exception.

“We really like Ranger. I mean, understandably,” Dombrowski said. “And we think the Ranger is better in the first half of the season than the second half. From his own perspective, there was a lot to consider. But he’s a good pitcher. We are all very open to having Ranger in the organization for a long time.”

The Walker Question

After the worst season of his career, Walker will embark on a detailed winter program aimed at rediscovering the 2022 form that earned him his current $72 million contract.

“I would think he’ll join us in spring training next year, but he’s not guaranteed a starting spot,” Dombrowski said.

Walker throws to make contact and historically causes a lot of ground balls. But because of his struggles with speed and command in 2024, he didn’t miss many barrels. Walker’s swing-and-miss percentage (16.7%) and average exit velocity (91.4 mph) were both in the bottom 1% of MLB pitchers.

Walker’s offseason program will be similar to what the Phillies tried during the season, with weighted balls to increase his velocity. Manager Rob Thomson thought the program had helped, but it had to be put on pause when Walker returned to the starting rotation in September. Thomson hopes a full offseason of work will lead to permanent changes.

“He approaches it like he has to win a job. And so I think knowing Tai, he’s going to do his very best to make this happen,” Thomson said.

However, if Walker doesn’t turn things around and the Phillies choose to cut ties, they’ll be on the hook for the remaining $36 million on his contract.

Painter watch

Top pitching prospect Andrew Painter will certainly play a role in the Phillies’ future rotation. The question is how quickly the 6-foot-2 right-hander can make the jump.

“He’s a very talented individual and obviously he’s healthy,” Dombrowski said. “…We’re going to have to decide how we’re going to use his innings next year because he’s not going to be a guy that we can throw out and count on him to throw 180 innings at the Major League level. ”

That decision will be made after Painter finishes his stint in the Arizona Fall League. The 21-year-old has pitched seven innings in three appearances in the AFL, including three scoreless innings on Thursday. In his first real game action since undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2023, Painter heated up reached a top speed of 100 km/h on October 12.

Further down the pipeline, Mick Abel’s prospects, No. 6 overall, are a bit murkier. The 23-year-old Abel, a first-round pick in the 2020 draft, was in talks to make his major league debut sometime in the 2024 season after an impressive spring training. But then he struggled in Triple A, posting a 6.46 ERA over 108⅔ innings and falling down the depth chart.

Abel’s 15.1% walk rate was a career high and his 22.7% strikeout rate was a career low. He will have to rediscover his command to have a chance of breaking through at the big league club.

One name to know outside of the Phillies’ top-30 prospect list is Eiberson Castellano. In September, the 23-year-old became right-handed was named the Phillies’ minor league pitcher of the year after his first season as a full-time starter. In 20 starts between high-A Jersey Shore and double-A Reading, Castellano posted a 3.99 ERA, and his 136 strikeouts were the most of any Phillies minor leaguer.

Unless they are placed on the Phillies’ 40-man roster, Abel and Castellano will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft that will take place during the winter meetings, which begin on December 8.

Possible targets

With Painter waiting in the wings, the Phillies won’t be in the conversation for expensive front-end names like Corbin Burnes and Max Fried this season. But injuries can happen, and Dombrowski could choose to do so double when starting pitching to achieve further depth.

“It makes it a more difficult job in the sense that you’re not sure when (Painter) will come back,” Dombrowski said. “If you sign someone and he or she is looking for an opportunity to get the ball every day, there are some complexities, but nothing that is insurmountable.”

Turnbull will be a free agent after missing most of the season due to a right shoulder strain. Before landing on the injured list in June, Turnbull had a 2.65 ERA in 17 appearances (seven starts) for the Phillies. However, Turnbull has not yet proven that he can sustain that success; he hasn’t had starting work since 2019 due to a long injury history. And after a tumultuous 2024 season between the rotation and the bullpen, it’s unclear what role, if any, the 32-year-old will play.

A possible clue for the Phillies could be a short-term deal for a player like the Dodgers’ Walker Buehler as a depth piece. The 30-year-old right-hander has struggled this season after returning from his second Tommy John surgery. But Buehler has been effective in the postseason and could be a cheap reclamation project if the Phillies are willing to see if he can recapture his 2021 All-Star form while they wait for Painter.

And the Phillies could make even more of an impact with a trade for Garrett Crochet from the White Sox, who they previously pursued at the deadline. The 25-year-old southpaw had a strikeout rate of 35.1% and a projected ERA of 2.83 in 2024. Crochet has a five-pitch mix, highlighted by a four-seamer that averaged 90.1 mph. His overall stats dropped in the second half of the season as Chicago limited his innings, but he was able to stay healthy in his first full season as a starter.