Georgia-Florida Football Prediction: What the Analytics Say

One of the SEC’s best rivalry games kicks off this weekend when the world’s largest outdoor cocktail party features Florida as a challenger against No. 2 Georgia. Let’s take a look at the latest matchup predictions from an analytical model that simulates games.

Georgia is 4-1 in SEC play after upsetting Texas two weeks ago, and there is little margin for error going forward with games against Ole Miss and Tennessee still to come.

Florida improved to 4-3 overall after knocking off Kentucky, but enters what appears to be the toughest stretch of any schedule in college football this season, playing four ranked teams in its final five games.

Looking ahead to this week’s game, let’s take a look at the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on an expected scoring margin per game.

As expected, the models show the Bulldogs as heavy favorites over the Gators.

Georgia is expected to win the contest with a majority 79.9 percent of the most recent computer simulations of the matchup.

This leaves Florida as the likely winner in the remaining series 20.1 percent from sims.

Overall, the Bulldogs came out ahead in 15,980 of the game’s index calculations, while the Gators beat their rivals in the remaining 4,020 of the predictions.

And the index projects a double-digit win for the Bulldogs on the scoreboard.

Georgia is expected to be the same 12.4 points better then Florida on the same field in the current composition of both teams, according to the model’s latest prediction.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Bulldogs to cover the spread against the Gators.

That’s because Georgia has a 16.5 points favorite against Florida, according to the updated rules on FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 52.5 points for the game (over -105, under -115).

A large number of bettors expect the Bulldogs to dominate the Gators in this rivalry game, according to the latest consensus spread picks for the matchup.

Georgia gets 64 percent number of bets to win the game and cover the generous point spread.

The other 36 percent of betting odds, the Florida project will either win outright in an upset, or more likely keep the game under 17 points in a loss.

Georgia is the first among SEC teams with one 84.5 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to FPI statistics.

That model projects the Bulldogs to win 10 games this season.

Florida could struggle to qualify for bowling, according to index calculations entered this weekend.

The Gators are expected to win 5.7 games and have one 54.7 percent chance to qualify for a bowl game.

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer forecasting models are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and score predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and matches, using a combination of key analytics including year-to-date scores, opponent quality, team talent, recruiting and a team’s schedule .

Teams are not ranked by talent as in other rankings, but based on an expected points margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

First place votes in brackets

Oregon (61)
Georgia (1)
Penn State
State of Ohio
Miami
Texas
Tennessee
Notre Dame
BYU
Texas A&M
Clemson
The state of Iowa
Indiana
Alabama
Boise State
LSU
State of Kansas
Pittsburgh
Ole ma’am
SMU
Army
Washington State
Colorado
Illinois
Missouri

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The game odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.

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