The American election system is secure. But human nature is a vulnerability

WASHINGTON – Hacking a local election system in the United States would not be easy, and secretly altering votes on a scale large enough to change the outcome of the presidential race would be impossibleelection officials have said, thanks to decentralized systems, paper records for nearly all ballots, extensive reviews, due process and decades of work by U.S. election officials, volunteers and citizens.

But foreign actors and domestic extremist groups want to get involved next week’s elections can focus on a much weaker link: voters’ perceptions and emotions. Those who want to undermine confidence in American democracy don’t need to change their vote if they can convince enough Americans not to trust the outcome.

It’s a possible scenario that’s especially troubling to intelligence analysts and officials charged with protecting U.S. elections: An adversary tries to hack into a state or local election system and then releases a document — perhaps a fake document or even material that’s publicly available is available – and suggests that it is evidence. of voting fraud.

Or a video is made in which someone supposedly hacks a voice scanner, voting machine or a state voter registration system. But it didn’t happen and it wouldn’t be true.

It’s called a perception hack, which may or may not involve an actual breach of voting systems, but gives the impression that this has indeed happened. In some cases, small information can be stolen – enough to make a video appear legitimate – but this does not change the votes. A related threat involves fake images purporting to show election workers destroying ballots.

In both cases, the goal is the same: to generate confusion, distrust And fear.

Governments at all levels have been working to strengthen electoral infrastructure in recent years. However, the human brain remains difficult to defend.

“I think that will almost certainly happen,” said former CIA political analyst Adam Darrah, discussing the risk of perception hacks.

Darrah, now vice president of intelligence at the cybersecurity firm ZeroFox, said tricking people into thinking election systems are vulnerable is a lot easier than actually hacking them. ‘It’s a way to create panic. We are technically very resilient. Our emotional resilience, our hypersensitivity, that is still a challenge.”

Narrow margins of victory or delays in counting votes could increase the risk that a perception hack could fool a large number of voters, further polarizing the electorate, increasing the risk of political violence and potentially complicating the transition of power in January.

Intelligence officials warned about this last week Russia And Iran may consider encouraging violent protests in the US after the elections. The country’s intelligence community and private analysts agree the Kremlin supports former President Donald TrumpMoscow’s ultimate goal is to divide Americans and undermine the US support for Ukraine and the NATO alliance.

America’s adversaries focus on disinformation In part, officials say, it’s because they understand the country’s election infrastructure is too secure to hack successfully.

Despite intelligence officials’ findings, both Russia and Iran have rejected claims that they are trying to influence the US election.

“We have never interfered, we do not interfere and have no intention of interfering,” a spokesperson for the Russian embassy in Washington wrote in an email to The Associated Press.

Even without the involvement of a foreign power, there are isolated stories of long lines at the polls, ballots being mixed up or… other irregularities could be cited as evidence that elections cannot be trusted.

It happened in 2020, when Trump fueled and contributed to claims of election problems January 6, 2021attack on the US Capitol by his supporters attempting to disrupt the certification of the elections.

The former Republican president has spent months laying the groundwork to challenge the outcome of this year’s election if he loses. And he has tried to convince his supporters that the only way he can lose is if Democrats cheat, urging them to deliver a victory that is “too big to manipulate.”

“They’re cheating,” Trump said at a rally in Michigan last month. “That’s the only way we’re going to lose, because they’re cheating. They cheat like hell.”

Just like in 2020, the days immediately after the elections will probably be the same the most criticalas soon as the results are announced and Americans come to the end of a controversial breed.

It is then that authoritarian nations or domestic anti-democratic groups will try to incite distrust in an effort to spur people to action, says Paul Barrett, a law professor at New York University who studies online discourse and polarization.

“They’re happy to see Americans at other Americans’ throats,” Barrett said. “We’ve seen that in 2021 and I’m very concerned that we’ll see a repeat.”

In response, national security and election officials across the country have done just that moved to expose misinformation and quickly suppress rumors. Top intelligence officials have held multiple briefings outlining foreign threats, while cybersecurity and election officials have explained why election systems are secure.

Last week, a video purporting to show someone in Pennsylvania destroying ballots spread on social media. Bipartisan election officials in Bucks County quickly debunked the videoand intelligence officials linked it to a Russian campaign behind other videos attempting to smear the vice president Kamala Harristhe Democratic candidate, and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz.

“That video was debunked pretty quickly on multiple news sites, and I know Bucks County immediately came out and basically explained why it was fake and why voters should have confidence,” said Kim Wyman, a former secretary of state in the United States. state of Washington, who also worked at the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency.

“But the problem is, now it exists out there,” she said. “And we know it will remain in circulation between now and probably Inauguration Day.”

Americans can help prevent a successful perception hack by not spreading election fraud further. Disinformation experts urge voters to consult various sources of information skeptical of anonymous claims on social media and turn to their own state and local officials for the facts.

Uncertainty and emotions will run high in the days after the election ends — exactly the conditions foreign adversaries and domestic extremists need to undermine confidence.

“Our foreign adversaries want to attack our democratic process to further their own goals, and we need the help of all Americans to ensure they are not successful,” said CISA senior adviser Cait Conley. “Americans must be able to trust that their votes will be counted as cast. They should also know that our foreign adversaries will try to make them believe otherwise.”

“We encourage everyone to remain vigilant, verify the information they consume and rely on trusted sources like their state and local election officials,” she added.

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Cassidy reported from Atlanta. Associated Press writer Jill Colvin in New York contributed to this report.