The historian's latest prediction is that Kamala Harris will win the 2024 presidential election

Democratic candidate Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States and defeat the Republican rival Donald Trump on election day, or so historian and election forecaster Allan Lichtman still predicts.

Lichtman is known for correctly predicting the results of the last nine of the ten presidential elections YouTube channel On Tuesday evening, it appears that his prediction has not changed, despite the fact that Democratic candidate Harris’ lead in the battleground states has narrowed polls are nail-bitingly close.

“Nothing has changed that could change my prediction that I made on September 5,” Lichtman said, “despite the polls.”

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Historian and American university professor Allan Lichtman answers questions during an interview with AFP in Bethesda, Maryland, on September 7, 2024. Lichtman created a model using 13 true/false criteria to predict whether the incumbent party's presidential candidate will win the election win or lose. next election. According to his model, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris will win the US elections in 2024. Lichtman has correctly called all but one election since 1984. (Photo by Pedro Ugarte / AFP) (Photo by PEDRO UGARTE/AFP via Getty Images) — Historian and American university professor Allan Lichtman answers questions during an interview with AFP in Bethesda, Maryland, on September 7, 2024. Lichtman created a model using 13 true/false criteria to predict whether the incumbent party’s presidential candidate will win the election win or lose. next elections. According to his model, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris will win the US elections in 2024. Lichtman has correctly called all but one election since 1984. (Photo by Pedro Ugarte / AFP) (Photo by PEDRO UGARTE/AFP via Getty Images)

Lichtman has come under fire for his predictions, especially when political pollster Nate Silver called the American University modern history professor’s keys “completely arbitrary” in a post on X last month.

He emphasized on Tuesday the 13 keys he used to make his predictions have not been changed and criticized prevalence of opinion polls in the media, saying that governing, rather than campaigning, is indicative of who will win the race for the White House in 2024.

More: Why historian accurately predicts that election says October surprise is a ‘myth’

“I don’t have a crystal ball, I’m not Speaker Mike Johnson who thinks he has a pipeline to the Almighty. My system is based on history, it is very robust, but it is always possible, you cannot know it at once. “I can’t imagine that there would be something so cataclysmic and so unprecedented that would break the pattern of history,” Lichtman said, but that “doesn’t mean my prediction is invalid.”

Lichtman’s son Sam interviewed his father during the 90-minute live video, in which the election forecaster argued that democracy itself is at stake in this year’s race for the White House.

Before every election, Lichtman said he gets butterflies, but this year is different.

“I have a flock of crows in my stomach,” he said.

This article originally appeared on Zanesville Times Recorder: Despite tight polls, historian Allan Lichtman says Harris will win