What happens to Donald Trump's criminal cases if he wins — or loses

Former President Donald Trump has a huge personal stake in the upcoming election, which could either send him back to the White House – or into a courtroom for what could be years of legal proceedings under the looming threat of incarceration.

No other presidential candidate in history has faced the possibility of such drastically different outcomes, in which Trump’s legacy, personal fortunes and individual freedom could be determined by a few thousand swing state voters.

If he returns to the White House, Trump has promised to fire Jack Smith, the special counsel who brought two federal cases against him, “in two seconds”; he has said he would punish the prosecutors and judges who oversee his cases; and he will likely avoid serious consequences for the criminal charges he still faces.

“If he wins, say goodbye to all criminal cases,” said Karen Friedman Agnifilo, who previously headed the Manhattan district attorney’s trial division.

“The criminal cases are over, whether legally or practically,” added Friedman Agnifilo, who said a Trump victory would be a “get-out-of-jail-free card” for the former president.

If he loses the election, Trump faces years of legal proceedings, hundreds of millions in civil penalties and the possibility of prison time, starting with sentencing for his criminal case in New York on November 26.

Here’s what could happen in each of Trump’s criminal cases.

New York hush money case

Trump’s most pressing legal matter after the election is his Nov. 26 conviction on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records to cover up a 2016 hush money payment to adult film actress Stormy Daniels.

Defense attorneys successfully postponed the sentencing twice — first by asking for the case to be dismissed on the basis of presidential immunity and the second time by emphasizing the political stakes of a pre-election conviction. New York Judge Juan Merchan described Trump’s case as one that “stands alone, in a unique place in the history of this country” and opted to postpone sentencing until November to ensure the judge’s judgment the jury ‘would be respected and addressed in a manner that is not diluted. by the sheer magnitude of the upcoming presidential election.”

While people convicted for the first time of falsifying corporate records normally avoid prison time, legal experts told ABC News that the unique factors of Trump’s case — including the fact that he was held for criminal contempt 10 times and the finding that he falsified company records to influence elections – – could prompt Judge Merchan to impose a prison sentence. When ABC News surveyed 14 legal experts about Trump’s sentence in June, five believed a prison sentence was likely, two described the decision as a toss-up, and seven believed a prison sentence was unlikely.

The sentencing could still happen in November if Trump wins the election, although the new circumstances could influence Judge Merchan’s decision, said Boston College law professor Jeffrey Cohen. Merchan could choose to impose a lighter sentence — such as one day of probation — or choose to defer the sentence until Trump leaves office.

“A sitting president would not be forced to be incarcerated while exercising his presidency, so he could theoretically serve it once he is no longer in office,” said Cohen, noting that a deferred sentence could encourage Trump to to remain in office. as long as possible.

“If he wins, I think realistically, there will be no meaningful punishment as a result,” Friedman Agnifilo said.

Trump’s lawyers could also seek to delay sentencing in light of the outcome of the election, and the former president still faces multiple legal efforts to delay the case. On November 12, Judge Merchan plans to rule on Trump’s motion to dismiss the case due to the recent Supreme Court ruling granting him immunity from criminal prosecution for official actions he took as president — and as Merchan that motion denies, Trump could do so. Try to appeal immediately and further delay the sentencing.

Trump has also asked the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit to move the state case to federal court, which his lawyers could use to seek a stay of sentencing. Unlike his federal cases — for which Trump could theoretically pardon himself — the state case will likely remain beyond the reach of a presidential pardon even if Trump successfully refers the case to federal court, Cohen said.

Case of federal election interference

In the shadow of the presidential race, U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan has questioned how Trump’s federal election subversion case should proceed in light of the Supreme Court’s immunity ruling, which has delayed the case for nearly a year. Fifteen months after Trump pleaded not guilty to charges of undertaking a “criminal scheme” to overturn the results of the 2020 election, Judge Chutkan has laid out a schedule for the case that extends beyond the election, with deadlines for major submissions by the end of December. 19.

Trump has vowed to fire Smith if re-elected, but that may not be necessary because long-standing DOJ policy prohibits the prosecution of a sitting president — meaning the federal cases against Trump could be dropped immediately if Trump is in power comes.

While Smith could try to continue his prosecution in the two months between the election and the inauguration, there is little he can do to revive the case, according to law professor Bennett Gershman.

“They can keep doing what they’re doing, but it doesn’t really matter if Trump can ultimately appoint an attorney general who will then file a motion to dismiss the charges,” Gershman said. .

While his federal case will inevitably disappear if Trump wins, the exact manner in which this happens is uncertain. Smith could try to issue a final report on his findings, Trump could face a standoff with Congress or the acting attorney general over firing Smith, or Judge Chutkan could oppose the final move by the Department of Justice to dismiss the charges.

If Trump loses the election, Judge Chutkan is expected to continue assessing whether the charges in the case are protected by presidential immunity. Her final decision is likely to be appealed and could be resubmitted to the Supreme Court, likely delaying a trial for at least another year, according to experts.

Federal Secret Documents Case

After U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon dismissed Trump’s criminal case for withholding classified documents and obstructing the government’s efforts to retrieve them, Smith asked an appeals court to reinstate the case, arguing that Cannon’s decision on the appointment and funding of special prosecutors “could jeopardize long-standing legal proceedings.” operation of the Department of Justice and calls into question hundreds of executive branch appointments.”

If Trump wins the election, prosecutors will likely have no choice but to withdraw their appeal, Friedman Agnifilo said, affirming Judge Cannon’s dismissal of the case.

If Trump loses the election, the case will have a long wait before going to trial. Prosecutors must successfully convince the Atlanta-based 11th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals to overturn Cannon’s firing, and Trump’s team has already raised a defense based on presidential immunity, which could become the basis for a future appeal .

Facing a series of unfavorable rulings, Smith would also face a major decision on whether Judge Cannon should be removed from the case, Cohen said.

“I’m not sure what their reasons are now other than ‘we’re not really happy with what she decided,’” said Cohen, who was skeptical about the government’s reasons for refusal based solely on the trial record.

In a separate case overseen by Judge Cannon, attorneys for Ryan Routh — the man accused of trying to kill Trump at his Florida golf course in September — decided to have Cannon turned, citing in part ABC News that there was a staff schedule. During Trump’s transition, Cannon’s name circulated among potential candidates for attorney general if Trump were re-elected. Cannon rejected that motion on Tuesday, describing the argument about a possible nomination as “rumors” and “innuendo.”

“We had a courageous, brilliant judge in Florida. She’s a brilliant judge, by the way. I don’t know her. I never spoke to her. I never spoke to her. But we had a courageous and very brilliant judge,” Trump said. said of Cannon last week.

Election interference in Fulton County

Trump’s criminal case in Fulton County, Georgia, related to his attempt to overturn the results of the 2020 election in that state, has been stalled since June, while an appeals court rejected the former president’s challenge to the decision Judge Scott McAfee’s decision not to disqualify District Attorney Fani. Willis for what McAfee called a “significant appearance of impropriety” stemming from a romantic relationship between Willis and a prosecutor on her staff. An appeals court in Georgia has scheduled oral arguments for Dec. 6 on whether Willis can proceed with her case.

When asked about the future of the case if Trump wins the election, Trump attorney Steve Sadow told Judge McAfee last December that a trial would likely have to wait until after Trump completes his term.

Since August 2023, when Trump was indicted in Fulton County on 13 criminal charges, Judge McAfee has thrown out the charges by throwing out five of the charges Trump was originally charged with.

If he loses the election, Trump could try to delay the case by continuing to push for Willis’ disqualification or mounting a presidential immunity defense.

“The indictment in this case accuses President Trump of acts that are core to his official responsibilities as president,” Trump’s lawyers wrote in a January motion.