Predictions and 3 keys for #13 Indiana’s game at Michigan State

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – National reports, such as one X post by CBS Sports Reporter Brandon Marcello on Wednesday suggest Indiana quarterback Kurtis Rourke could start Saturday against Michigan State.

Whether it’s true or not, Indiana has been an efficient passing team this season, regardless of who the quarterback was. As the No. 13 Hoosiers travel for Saturday’s 3:30 PM ET kickoff at Spartan Stadium, it’s not good news for the host Spartans.

Michigan State saw a wide variation in form in the 2024 season. It reflects both playing a tough schedule — Michigan State has already played Ohio State, Oregon, Iowa and Michigan — and the Spartans’ inconsistent performance.

The one thing that has remained consistent is that when the Spartans face a good quarterback, they tend to struggle, even in some of their wins.

In their four losses, opposing quarterbacks achieved at least 61.8% accuracy against the Spartans. Even in a 27-24 win at Michigan State, Billy Edwards Jr. completed. from Maryland completed 76.5% of his passes.

Indiana is the third most efficient passing team in the country. The Hoosiers trail only the Army and Navy in this department — and the service academies rarely throw the ball compared to Indiana. The Midshipmen’s (56) and Black Knights’ (95) pass attempts combined do not match Indiana’s total (221).

So whether Rourke or Tayven Jackson plays Saturday, Indiana will have a big advantage. Michigan State must find a way to soften the Hoosiers’ strength, something no team has yet been able to accomplish.

Here are three more keys and a prediction for the Michigan State game:

1. Take Michigan State off the field

With a two-pronged running attack led by Kay’ron Adams (459 yards) and Nate Carter (412 yards), not to mention the running ability of quarterback Aidan Chiles (172 yards), the Spartans are able to keep the ball. Michigan State ranks second in the Big Ten and 21st nationally in possession at 31:48 per game.

Indiana just needs to fall back on one of its own strengths to limit the Spartans’ ball control. The Hoosiers are fourth in the Big Ten and 27th nationally in third defense. Opponents converted just 33% of their third-down conversions against the Hoosiers. This trend should keep the Spartans from evading Indiana’s offense.

2. Include Zach Horton in the passing attack

Indiana tight end Zach Horton was an integral part of Indiana’s offensive attack. His blocking is considered a major reason for Indiana’s overwhelming success.

He has been involved in the passing attack – Horton has 15 catches for 124 yards and two TD catches – but he has only reached the four-catch threshold in a game twice.

By now we’ve learned that Indiana will bob and weave to change their tendencies from game to game. Last week, Indiana abandoned the committee-by-committee approach and let Judge Ellison shoulder the burden.

Maybe getting more targets for Horton is the next evolution? There is a precedent. In 2023 at James Madison, Horton had 17 of his 27 catches in the final five games of the season.

3. Don’t let the crowd fool you

Indiana has played just two road games, and neither venue was a frothing pit of fan-fueled passion.

The Rose Bowl is so big that it takes up quite a bit of home field advantage for UCLA – and Indiana had a significant number of fans there anyway. The opposite dynamic was at work during the October trip to Northwestern’s small temporary stadium on Lake Michigan. Once again there was a good turnout of Indiana fans in Evanston.

Spartan Stadium will be different. There will likely be a lot of Indiana fans in East Lansing, but the percentage of fans rooting for the Hoosiers versus previous road games will be much higher in the 75,005-capacity stadium.

It will be loud, so Indiana’s players will have to deal with that dynamic for the first time. The team has been practicing with simulated sound in practice, but it is not the same as competition day.

It will be a good dress rehearsal for when the Hoosiers travel to Ohio State on Nov. 23.

Prediction

My gut tells me this game will be closer than Indiana’s recent games.

It’s a road game – a real road atmosphere for the Hoosiers for the first time this season – and that comes with the usual challenges. Michigan State is being tested by its program in a way that Indiana has not experienced.

On the other hand, Indiana has risen to every challenge in 2024. And while Michigan State faced a tough challenge from Big Ten opponents, it wasn’t very competitive against the Buckeyes or the Ducks. Even in the 32-20 win against Iowa, Michigan State had to settle for six field goals. Doing that again probably won’t be enough against Indiana’s offense.

We’re going for a 28-13 win for the Hoosiers. Indiana at 9-0? Something none of us have ever experienced before.