Northwestern vs. Purdue prediction: odds, expert picks, QB matchup, betting trends and stats

Northwestern (3-5) has taken advantage through its first eight games, going just 1-5 against Power Four opponents while compiling a modest 2-6 ATS record. Their only Big Ten win came in a 37-10 blowout over @Maryland, but the Wildcats posted a horrendous 0% win expectancy in each of their other four B10 games. The offense is at the heart of the team’s problems, ranking 129th in EPA/play and 132nd in points per scoring opportunity, in addition to 126th in EPA/dropback. Defensively is another matter, with Northwestern’s Balanced D ranking at 10th yards per rush allowed and 17th in 20+ yards completion percentage (11.8%).

Purdue (1-6) has yet to defeat an FBS opponent and is coming off a deflating 35-0 shutout by undefeated Oregon. Their best moment was a spirited comeback against @Illinois, where they put up 49 points but still fell 50-49 to the Illini despite a 75% win expectancy. Purdue relies on a strong rushing attack that ranks 7th in yards per successful play (11.9 yards) and 18th in yards before contact. However, they are hampered by one of the worst defenses in the country, which ranks 130th in EPA/rush and 132nd in yards per dropback allowed.

NBC Sports has the latest information and analysis you need, including how to tune in for kickoff, odds from BetMGM, player news and updates, and of course our predictions and best bets for the game from our staff of experts.

Listen to the B1G Talk podcast with Todd Blackledge and Noah Eagle for the most compelling storylines in all of college football, featuring the biggest teams on the rise and the latest rankings!

Game details and how to watch 2024 Northwestern @ Purdue

· Date: Saturday November 2, 2024
· Time: 12:00 PM EST
· Location: Ross-Ade Stadium
· City: West Lafayette, IN
· TV/streaming: BTN

Do you want the other games on the College Football Schedule this week? We’ve got you covered here on NBC Sports with all the matchup, location, game time and TV/streaming information so you don’t miss any of the action!

Game Odds for Northwestern @ Purdue

The latest odds from BetMGM from Thursday:

• Moneyline: Northwestern (-115), Purdue (-100)
• Spread: Northwestern (-1.5)
• Top/Bottom: 46.5 points

Purdue actually opened as a favorite (-1.5), but that line was cut to (+1.5) at the time of publication. The moneyline has remained relatively stable, alongside the total that opened at 46 and now stands at 46.5.

NBC Sportsbook Best Bet

NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“With both defenses struggling to contain opposing offenses, and QB Ryan Browne giving Purdue a dual-threat option at QB, I think the Over 46.5 points are worth a look.”

Listen to the Bet the Edge podcast as hosts, Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick provide listeners with sharp, actionable insight, market analysis and statistics to help bettors gain more information before placing their bets.

BetMGM College Football Insights: National Championship

Line movement (last week to now)

• Georgia +350 to +325
• Oregon +500 to +450
• Texas A&M +3000 to +2200

Highest ticket%

• State of Ohio 14.5%
• Texas 12.0%
• Georgia 11.1%

Highest Handle%

• State of Ohio 18.9%
• Georgia 17.0%
• Texas 11.7%

Biggest obligations

• State of Ohio
• Tennessee
• Colorado

Quarterback matchup for Northwestern @ Purdue

• Northwestern: QB Jack Lausch leads a listless passing attack that ranks 127th in passing success rate and 120th in passing explosiveness with a 53% completion rate. He has a 4-4 ratio and has done a commendable job avoiding sacks with a pressure-to-sack percentage of 15.7%, which is important as the Wildcats allow a pressure rate of 34% (95th). While Lausch has been fairly disappointing thus far, with a mediocre PFF grade of 58% and the second-lowest completion percentage among P4 signal callers, he is still an upgrade over Opening Day starter Mike Wright.

• Purdue: Hudson Card came over from Texas, where his services were no longer needed after the arrival of Quinn Ewers and the deployment of Arch Manning. He started the first five games of the season and completed 64% of his passes for 6.6 yards per attempt and a decent 75th percentile PFF grade. When OC Graham Harrell was fired after Week 6, Card was also demoted, opening the door for redshirt freshman Ryan Browne to take over. Browne has completed 61% of his throws for 8.2 YPA and a 3-to-1 ratio to go with a strong 85.3 attack rating. He performed extremely well against Illinois (91% game grade), but struggled against a stout Oregon defense in his last start.

Trends and recent stats for Purdue and Northwestern

• Northwestern allows 21 completions per game, third-lowest among Big Ten teams, while Purdue completes 15 passes per game, which is fourth-lowest among B10 programs.
• QB Jack Lausch has converted 16% of his third-down situations this season, which is the second-lowest percentage among P4 quarterbacks. (BockGlenn = #1 at 15%)
• Purdue has thrown for 1,196 passing yards in seven games (171 YPG), which ranks 120th among FBS programs, while Northwestern is allowing 234 passing yards per game, 93rd nationally.
• Purdue allows 20+ yards gains on 16% of their pass attempts (27 of 171), the second-highest big play rate among Power Four programs. Kentucky has allowed the highest completion rate of 20+ yards among P4 programs: 16.6%.

College Football talk takes over Bet the Edge every Thursday all season long. BET THE EDGE is your source for all things sports betting. Get all the insights from Vaughn Dalzell, Eric Froton and Brad Thomas on Thursdays at 6:00 PM ET here or wherever you get your favorite podcasts.

Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.

Follow our experts on socials to stay up to date with the latest staff content:

• Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
• Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
• Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
• Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas)
• Eric Froton (@CFFroton)