Penn State vs. Ohio State Preview, Predictions

Penn State faces another momentous opportunity head-first on Saturday when host Ohio State has a chance to move to 8-0 for just the second time under head coach James Franklin. The Nittany Lions are ranked higher, have a starting quarterback who is not at full strength, are at home for the first time in four weeks and are trying to end a seven-game losing streak to the Buckeyes.

So let’s get started, okay?

No. 3 Penn State (7-0) vs. No. 4 Ohio State (6-1)

RELATED: Donald Trump no longer plans to attend Saturday’s Penn State-Ohio State game

The storyline

Andy Kotelnicki is Penn State’s most dynamic offseason find, the offensive coordinator who recites lines from the movie “Anchorman” during practice, trains its players in public speaking and has Tyler Warren in the ultimate football player with five tools. But Saturday is the reason James Franklin brought over Kotelnicki from Kansas and coach Lance Leipold: to score more than 20 points against Ohio State.

“It wasn’t easy hiring him,” Franklin said this week, a nod to Kotelnicki’s value to both Kansas and other programs. If Kotelnicki continues call fun gamesusing his assets in unique ways and framing Penn State’s offense as the fun place to play, he’ll soon be doing it somewhere else — for money as a head coach. “It’s super, super fun,” Penn State tackle Anthony Donkoh said of playing in Kotelnicki’s offense. “…We’ve got a lot more crazy stuff in store that I can’t wait to actually play in the game.”

Well, now’s the time, because Franklin has hired Kotelnicki to run a high-scoring, explosive offense that can also run the ball, make smart use of his backup quarterback and, in doing all that, the can beat Ohio State. The Nittany Lions looked lost offensively in Columbus last season. They went 0-for-15 on third down until their final series, converting a play of more than 15 yards through three quarters and watching quarterback Drew Allar and his receivers make several plays (4.5 yards per attempt). Kotelnicki has put all that together, putting Allar in the top 10 nationally in quarterback rating, pass efficiency, completion percentage, yards per attempt and yards per completion. He raised Warren to be one of the best players in the country. And he’s done a good job with what he has at wide receiver.

“We’ve done some really good things over the last few years,” Franklin said this week. “Where we fell short last year was the explosive play. We started to look a little bit at who the coordinators are and who are the teams that produce explosive play, and not just because their genetics are better. Where does the explosive play come from? How are they made? Is this happening on a consistent basis? And are they doing it against their biggest competition? When you look at things like this, the list narrows pretty quickly.”

The dynamic is even more compelling Saturday as Penn State analyzes who should start at quarterback, how much backup Beau Pribula should play and where to deploy its best players. Penn State has played many fourth-quarter games with Ohio State, but has yet to miss on offense to win (not counting 2017). Kotelnicki is studying at State College to create that. If he does, Franklin might go back to that list, so enjoy.

RELATED: Is the Penn State-Ohio State game a must-win for the Nittany Lions?

Penn State players to watch

Nicholas Singleton: The running back hasn’t reached 100 yards or broken a run of more than 20 yards since Week 2 against Bowling Green. It’s imperative that he and Kaytron Allen rack up yards and eat up minutes against a Buckeyes-run defense that ranks sixth nationally.

Omari Evans: Penn State’s deep threat against receiver has been an afterthought over the past month. He has just three catches, no longer than 16 yards, in the past four games. Ohio State’s secondary doesn’t allow him to run past it. So Evans must break physical coverage at the line of scrimmage, make a contested catch and give his quarterback a tertiary pass target.

Jalen Kimber: Penn State offers a lot of man coverage, meaning the cornerback will get Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbuka or Carnell Tate at some point. Ohio State wins when the receivers consistently beat the press. Kimber, AJ Harris and Zion Tracy will compete.

Jaylen Reed: Penn State’s safety is having a monster seasonforcing the past two opposing quarterbacks into critical interceptions in the second half. He will be essential not only in keeping Ohio State quarterback Will Howard honest, but also in providing support to Ohio State’s twin-back system.

Ohio State Buckeyes to watch

Jeremiah Smith: Nebraska got some pressure and shortened Will Howard’s throwing time, but Ohio State targeted the Big Ten’s top receiver just four times in last week’s throat tightening. One went for a long touchdown. Smith should score at least ten goals on Saturday.

The left tackle: This is where the Buckeyes are vulnerable. Zen Michalski, who replaced injured star Josh Simmons last week, was struggling before getting hurt himself. Day told reporters this week that Michalski is “trending” towards missing the game. So the Buckeyes are faced with more juggling. All-Big Ten guard Donovan Jackson is the likely tackle candidate, but Ohio State is becoming more sensitive up front.

Caleb Downs: The safety is arguably Ohio State’s best defensive player with 5.5 tackles for loss and two key stops against Nebraska. He has the ability to neutralize a potential Pribula run game or a Warren free-for-all game.

Denzel Burke: In a loaded Ohio State secondary, Burke has made a career-high 42 starts, 26 career pass breakups and two interceptions this season. He didn’t have a great day at Oregon, but will make running tiring for the Penn State receivers.

RELATED: Ohio State QB Will Howard is ‘stoked’ for Saturday’s game at Penn State

The predictions

Mark Wogenrich: Recent Penn State-Ohio State history is defined by the Buckeyes’ stellar individual games: JT Barrett in 2017, Chase Young in 2018, Justin Fields (despite two fumbles) in 2019, JT Tuimoloau in 2022 and Marvin Harrison Jr. last year . Ohio State has missed one more player lately that Penn State missed. The dynamics of this year’s game are different, but Ohio State has a few more players. Last week’s break against Nebraska was an outlier. The Buckeyes show up with one more player (perhaps receiver Jeremiah Smith) on Saturday and plan for another win. Ohio State 24, Penn State 23

Daniel Mader: This is the best top-to-bottom Nittany Lions team Ryan Day has faced in years – which doesn’t guarantee a Penn State win, but does make things a lot more interesting. The pressure and defense that Penn State showed in this 2023 game is still there, but more importantly, Andy Kotelnicki’s offensive creativity completely changes the way these two teams face each other. I think a lot depends on Drew Allar’s injury status, but the Buckeyes weren’t entirely convincing in a 21-17 win over Nebraska last week. Assuming Allar plays, I think Penn State finally sneaks by with a huge win in this historic rivalry. Penn State 27, Ohio State 24

Sam Woloson: Penn State has lost its last seven games against Ohio State, but offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki could help the Nittany Lions get over the hump. The way Kotelnicki adjusted his scheme in the second half in Wisconsin to accommodate backup quarterback Beau Pribula was impressive, and his ability to make adjustments on halftime will again be important. The Buckeyes defense will be tough, but whether it’s Allar or Pribula who starts, I’m confident Kotelnicki can put his players in position to succeed, especially with weapons like Tyler Warren playing matchup all over the court cause problems. Penn State 23, Ohio State 20

More Penn State football

The latest on Penn State’s injury situation

Penn State faced communication problems in Wisconsin, says James Franklin

How Ohio State prepares for a trip to Penn State

The game odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.

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