Will people leave Florida after devastating hurricanes? History suggests not

ORLANDO, Fla. – The news rippled through Treasure Island, Florida, almost like a third storm: the mayor planned to leave the barrier island a month later Hurricane Helene tens of thousands of homes along the Gulf Coast and flooded two weeks afterward Hurricane Milton also devastated the state.

Mayor Tyler Payne’s home was flooded and damaged beyond repair, he explained in a message to Treasure Island residents, and he and his husband cannot afford to rebuild the house. He also resigned as mayor.

“While it pains my heart to make this decision amid our recovery from Hurricanes Helene and Milton, this is the best decision for me and my family,” said Payne, who held the office for more than three years and was fourth in office. generation resident of Treasure Island, said Monday.

Up and down Florida storm-ravaged Gulf Coastresidents make the same calculations about whether they should stay or go. Can they afford to rebuild? What does the insurance cover? People considering moving to Florida wonder if it’s worth the risk to move to a hurricane-prone state.

These existential questions about Florida’s appeal are frequently asked after the state experiences a busy hurricane season, such as in 2004, when four hurricanes passed through the Sunshine State.

If moving upstate offers any answer, then hurricanes have served little as a deterrent. Florida’s population has grown by a third to 23 million residents in the twenty years since Charley, Frances, Jeanne and Ivan ravaged the state. Florida last year added more than 365,000 residentssecond only to Texas among the states.

On the other hand, there are signs that Florida’s red-hot real estate market has cooled. Single-family home sales fell 12% in September compared to the same period last year. But interest rates, rising home prices and skyrocketing insurance costs likely played a bigger role than the recent hurricanes.

“Florida is recovering much faster than you think,” said Brad O’Connor, chief economist for Florida Realtors.

What happens after a storm?

Research on hurricanes along the Gulf Coast has shown that any outward migration is typically short-lived, and when people do leave, it is usually over a short distance, such as from a barrier island to the mainland. Older people with more financial resources are more likely to return to devastated communities.

When it comes to the housing market, there may be an initial supply shock as homeowners wait for reimbursement from insurance companies to fix up or sell their homes.

But in the three years after a hurricane, home prices in areas of Florida hit by a hurricane are on average 5% higher than elsewhere in the state, due to less supply. according to one study of hurricanes’ impact on the Florida housing market from 2000 to 2016. New homeowners tend to be wealthier than previous homeowners because wealthier buyers can absorb price increases.

Other factors determining how quickly communities recover include whether homes were insured, the speed of insurance payments and whether there are enough construction workers. Because of stricter building regulations implemented in the years after Hurricane Andrew devastated South Florida in 1992, newer homes are more resilient to hurricanes than older ones, O’Connor said.

“If a property is damaged and not insured, and the homeowner says, ‘I don’t want to have to deal with this,’ there are always people willing to pick up that property because it’s valuable land,” he said. “People are building new homes under the new codes and there is less impact from hurricanes.”

Short term and long term

Recent storms provide examples of what is happening to communities, both in the short and longer term.

In Lee County, home to Fort Myers, Hurricane Ian made landfall two years ago in what had been one of the fastest growing parts of the United States. Population growth then slowed to 1.5%, compared to 4.4% before the storm. According to the US Census Bureau, the number of households dropped from about 340,000 to about 326,000.

In 2019, three-quarters of United Van Lines’ truck movements were in Lee County and a quarter were outbound, but that dropped to two-thirds inbound and one-third outbound in 2023 to 2024, the company told The Associated Press.

The proportion of people in their late twenties, thirties and early forties increased, as did the proportion of men without a spouse or partner, due to the influx of construction and repair workers. The share of the white population decreased, while it increased for the Hispanic community. According to the Census Bureau, the percentage of utility and transportation workers in the county has increased.

Bay County in the Florida Panhandle, where Michael came ashore as the first Category 5 hurricane in the continental US over a quarter century in 2018, offers a portrait of longer-term trends. Four years later, Bay County had recovered its pre-hurricane population, which dropped by nearly 6% in the year after the storm.

Since Michael, the county has become more diverse, wealthier and older, with the median age rising from 39.6 to 41.4 and more people identifying as multiracial or Hispanic. The share of households earning $200,000 or more went from 4.3% before the hurricane to 8.3% in 2022, a sign that some of the least affluent residents could not afford to rebuild or return to turn.

Mayor of Treasure Island

In his message to voters, Payne said he would still remain connected to the Treasure Island community as his parents plan to rebuild on the barrier island, one of a series of beach resorts along the Gulf of Mexico west of St. -Petersburg, known for its motels. restaurants and bars along the street. Payne, a lawyer who is also an executive at his family’s eyeglass factory, said in his post that his decision to move was “difficult.”

“I fully sympathize with the difficult decisions that so many of our residents are facing,” Payne said.

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Associated Press reporter Curt Anderson in Belleair Beach, Florida, contributed to this report.

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Follow Mike Schneider on the social platform X: @MikeSchneiderAP.