Harris leads Trump in Michigan by 3 points: Free Press poll

A final Free Press poll of likely voters in Michigan ahead of Tuesday’s election showed Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris with a 3 percentage point lead over Republican former President Donald Trump, fueled by growing support among women and Black voters, but still within plus or minus of the survey. Margin of error of 4 points.

This follows a statewide poll conducted by USA TODAY and Suffolk University which showed that Trump had only a four-tenths of a percentage point lead, the new poll means Michigan, a key state in the last two presidential elections and the site of dozens of visits by both campaigns this year, remains a flop.

The poll, conducted by EPIC-MRA of Lansing for the Free Press and its media partners, showed Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, leading Trump 48%-45%. Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the Natural Law Party candidate who dropped out of the race but remains on the ballot, each received 3% of support, and the independent Cornel West got 1%.

The number of undecided respondents was so small in the poll, which surveyed 600 likely voters between last Thursday and Monday, that it was less than 1%, something EPIC-MRA pollster Bernie Porn said he’s not sure he has done. seen before. “These are unusual elections,” he said.

Although the poll was good news for Harris – her level of support in the EPIC-MRA polls grew by 3 percentage points from August levels, and Trump’s fell by 1 point and it was the the first time Democrats had a lead in the presidential race in the company’s polls since November last year – there were some caveats.

The percentage of voters with a positive opinion of her was slightly lower than the percentage of voters with a positive opinion of Trump, for example 45% compared to his 47%. The percentage of her supporters who identified themselves as highly motivated to vote for her was strong at 78%, but still lagged slightly behind that of Trump supporters at 84%.

Then there’s the fact that Trump reportedly outperformed the polls in Michigan in 2016, when he won the state, and in 2020, when he lost it, and could do so again by changing his base.

But there were also strong indications that as the election drew closer, Harris’ message was resonating and that Trump’s support level may have leveled off.

Her support among black voters, a key constituency in Michigan, has risen 18 points since August, and the poll showed her leading Trump in that bloc 87%-5%. much closer to the level of support Biden received in 2020. Among white voters, she trailed Trump 50% to her 44%, but that 4-point margin was closer than the 55%-44% lead Trump had over Democratic President Joe Biden in Michigan with white voters in 2020, according to exit polls.

And while she still lagged among men, at 42% to Trump’s 48%, her support among women grew 5 points from August, leading the former president in that typically larger 53% voting bloc- 42%.

“(Support from) black men may no longer be an issue (for Harris) with (former President Barack) Obama has done and (former first lady) Michelle Obama has done,” Porn said, citing recent campaign visits to the state by both. “I expected her to have room to grow with the black vote.”

If Harris, a former U.S. senator and attorney general of California, is elected, he would be the first woman, the first Black woman and the first woman of South Asian descent to become U.S. president. Trump, a former TV host, real estate magnate and businessman, is seeking to become the first former president to be re-elected since Grover Cleveland in 1892.

Harris became the Democratic candidate this summer after Biden beset by questions about his age and poor opinion pollsdropped out of the race, but quickly consolidated the party behind her.

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Support for Kennedy, Stein seems to be having an effect

In taking a narrow lead in this latest poll, Harris likely had some help from the fact that Kennedy’s name remains on the ballot despite his withdrawal.

Among self-identified Republicans, 5% said they were still voting for Kennedy, as did 6% of the 11% of voters who describe themselves as independent. On Tuesday, the U.S. Supreme Court rejected Kennedy’s request to remove him from the ballots in Michigan and Wisconsin after dropping out after the deadline.

But there also seemed to be a third-party threat to Harris’ chances, including from Stein, the Green Party candidate who has embraced the “Abandon Harris” movement that seeks to attract voters in Michigan’s large Arab American and Muslim communities who want to punish Harris and the Biden administration for not demanding an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and imposing an Israeli arms embargo.

When asked what the most defining issue of the election was for them, 75% of Stein’s supporters said foreign policy, an indication that the Gaza conflict was a motivating factor, as only 5% of respondents considered foreign policy in the generally referred to as such a high priority. priority.

Stein did not have nearly the level of support among self-identified Democrats (1%) as Kennedy did among Republicans, and Harris’s level of support among Democrats was 95% to Trump’s 3%. (Among Republicans, Trump led Harris 89%-4%.) But Stein had significantly higher levels of support among 13% of self-identified independents, a potentially important group of swing voters, among whom Harris had a four-point lead over Trump. , 40%-36%.

Eight years ago, Stein received about 1% of the vote in Michiganor about 51,000 votes in a race that Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton lost to Trump by 10,704 votes.

A division over which candidate is better able to tackle problems

When asked which issue most motivated them to vote, 30% overall cited inflation and the cost of living, a topic that Trump and Republicans have been putting pressure on Democrats since inflation – which has declined over the past year – took off during and immediately after the global COVID-19 pandemic. Among Trump supporters, 47% said this was their biggest motivating factor.

But Harris, who has pushed back on the issue, saying she will fight price gouging and that her rival’s plans for much higher import tariffs will drive up consumer prices instead of bringing them down and creating jobs as he claims, seems to have convinced some voters she can be trusted in the fight against inflation. The poll found that 45% of respondents overall believed they were better positioned to tackle the problem, compared to 49% who say Trump is.

On these issues, 18% of respondents said abortion was their most important issue, an important issue for Harris and second only to inflation, while 32% of her supporters said it motivated their vote; another 12% chose as their top concern immigration, a key issue for Trump, ranting about a wave of encounters with undocumented immigrants along the southern border before the recent crackdown, with 25% of his supporters saying this was the driving force behind their vote for him. Another 10% said their main issue was the nominees’ fitness for office, motivating 16% of Harris voters (who presumably don’t believe Trump is fit to be president, but they do) and 4% of Trump voters (who don’t believe Harris is qualified for the job, but he is).

However, there were some major differences in who voters thought could better address certain issues.

For example, Trump received much higher marks for being better at ending the war in Ukraine (53%-39%), securing the southern border (59%-36%), and ending hostilities in the Middle East ( 48%-36%). ). Harris was seen as better able to protect abortion rights (64%-23%) and protect Medicare and Social Security benefits (52%-39%).

How everyone is doing in different regions, among different groups

Among different age groups in Michigan, the poll showed Harris doing better among voters aged 18 to 34 (50% to Trump’s 39%) and voters over 65 (58%-38%), while he is in the lead below 35-49%. (48%-40%) and 50-64 (51%-45%). In each of these age categories, Harris has seen some improvement over the past two months.

Trump still has a significant lead, 51%-42%, among voters who have not attended college; among those who did, Harris’ lead is larger, 54%-39%. (A word of caution for all of these subgroups, though: Since these are numbers of voters smaller than the full sample of 600, the margins of error for each subgroup would be higher, and in some cases significantly higher, than plus or minus 4 percentage points.)

In metro Detroit, which EPIC-MRA defines as Wayne, Oakland and Macomb counties and is the state’s largest voting area, Harris had a substantial lead of 54%-38%, far better than the 46%-43% margin which she had in August. She lagged in most other parts of the state, except the outer metro region, which includes Detroit’s outer suburbs, and Washtenaw County, where Ann Arbor is located, where she led 58%-40%.

In central, western and northern Michigan, as well as the area around Bay City and the Thumb, Trump led anywhere from 6 points (51%-45% in central Michigan) to 28 points (60%-32%, around Saginaw Bay) . ).

Finally, the poll showed Harris with a 64% to 35% lead over Trump among the 31% of voters who said they had already voted by absentee ballot or at the ballot box using early in-person mood. Among absentee voters, Harris had a 66%-31% lead overall, while Trump had a 52%-38% lead among those who planned to vote at the polls. This suggests that, as we saw in 2020, it is entirely possible that the former president will have a lead, and possibly even a significant one, in the early counting of statewide votes, so that the absentee ballot as it is tallied , could shorten in more than hours or even days.

Contact Todd Spangler: [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter@tsspangler.