There is still hope for detente between Turkey and the PKK, despite the deadly attack | PKK news

Istanbul, Turkey – The sight of Devlet Bahceli, the leader of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), walking across the floor of the Turkish parliament on October 1, shaking hands with politicians from a pro-Kurdish party, DEM, was unlikely.

The MHP leader, a close ally of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has been a vocal opponent of Kurdish demands for more rights. He has called Kurdish politicians “terrorists” and accused them of links to the PKK, an armed group labeled a “terrorist organization” by Turkey and the West. He also called for a ban on DEM’s predecessor.

The promise of new peace negotiations between Turkey and Kurdish fighters who have waged a 40-year insurgency was thrown into doubt last month after an attack on an aerospace factory near the capital Ankara.

Bahceli later said his gesture was a “message of national unity and brotherhood.”

Weeks later, he raised the possibility that PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan, who has been serving a life sentence since 1999, could be released on parole if he renounced violence and disbanded his organization.

And then, the next day on October 23, an attack on the aerospace and defense company TUSAS, killing five people and killing the two attackers, threatened to undo the small steps that had been made.

TUSAS produces civilian and military aircraft, including unmanned drones that have been crucial in the fight against the PKK, which has been waging war against the Turkish state since the 1980s, as part of an effort to claim greater autonomy for the Kurds living in the southeast live in Turkey.

The PKK claimed responsibility for the TUSAS attack two days later. The statement said the raid was not related to the latest “political agenda” but had been planned long before because TUSAS weapons had “killed thousands of civilians, including children and women, in Kurdistan.”

‘Historic opportunity’

And yet the attack may not be the death blow to the potential rapprochement, as some initially feared. Instead, there appear to be elements of an underlying desire on both sides to seek a resolution to a long-standing conflict that has claimed the lives of tens of thousands of people.

DEM quickly made clear its opposition to the TUSAS attack, condemning it and saying it “made sense” that it took place “while Turkish society is talking about a solution and the possibility of dialogue arises.”

Even after the attack, Erdogan himself described the developments as an “unparalleled opportunity.”

Praising Bahceli’s “will to focus on the right path” in a speech on October 30, the president said: “Those who read the MHP chairman’s calls in this context see the historic opportunity.”

DEM is now reportedly trying to establish a formal structure for peace negotiations involving senior figures from all political parties.

DEM party MP Ibrahim Akin described Bahceli’s comments on Ocalan as a “sign of a new era” and indicative of the government’s approach.

“However, there are still many things that are uncertain and give rise to hesitation,” he said. “We want a transparent process to be carried out in which all parties and all political actors are involved.”

Rationale

After the Ankara attack, Turkey launched a wave of airstrikes against the PKK in Iraq and Syria.

The group has been directing its activities in Turkey from the Qandil Mountains in northern Iraq since the late 1990s. The Turkish military has severely curtailed PKK activities in Turkey in recent years through the establishment of dozens of bases on the Iraqi side of the border and cross-border airstrikes.

In northeastern Syria, Turkey has also targeted the PKK-affiliated People’s Defense Units (YPG), which the United States has supported in the fight against ISIS (ISIS) since 2015, by supplying weapons and training. US support for the Kurdish armed group strained Turkey’s relations with the US.

Although Turkey does not recognize any division between the PKK and the YPG, most Western states have refused to consider the latter a “terrorist” group. After the TUSAS attack, Erdogan said the two PKK attackers entered Turkey from Syria, involving the YPG.

Some commentators see the rationale behind the latest attempt at talks as Erdogan’s desire to change Turkey’s current constitution, which would prevent him from running again unless early elections are called.

DEM – the third largest party in parliament – ​​could provide valuable support.

“The ruling coalition will likely try to amend the constitution to remove Erdogan’s term limits,” said Berk Esen, a political scientist at Sabanci University in Istanbul. “They probably want to divide the opposition coalition and, if not directly, co-opt the Kurdish political movement, then at least some Kurdish voters, especially conservative Kurdish voters in southeastern Anatolia.”

The idea of ​​a deal between the Turkish government led by Erdogan and the PKK is not as far-fetched as it may seem at first glance. Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AK Party) made a strong push during its first years in power in the 2000s to give more rights to Turkey’s Kurds, who had long been a marginalized group. A peace process launched in 2013 sometimes seemed almost a success, but failed in 2015.

The current move also comes at a time of extreme unrest in the Middle East. US support for Israel has reportedly roiled Kurdish groups, including the PKK, which has historic ties to Palestinian armed groups. DEM is very critical of Israeli actions in Gaza and Lebanon.

A second Donald Trump presidency would also likely result in the withdrawal of US troops from Syria, removing protection for the YPG.

Esen said Turkey may take a “preemptive step to fill the political vacuum created in the Middle East” to “make progress in the region.”

Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, director of the Ankara-based German Marshall Fund, said “favorable conditions, including regional actors dealing with other crises and the PKK’s weakened state, point to an opportunity for progress.”

However, he questioned whether Ocalan, who has been held incommunicado in recent years, retains enough influence over the PKK to steer the process.

“Furthermore, there are limits to what the Turkish public can tolerate when it comes to talks with the PKK, and having Ocalan in the Turkish parliament remains beyond those limits,” Unluhisarcikli added.

An October 24 Institute of Social Studies poll found that nearly three-quarters of respondents opposed Ocalan’s release. In a less scientific measure of public reaction, football fans at a Fenerbahce match in Istanbul chanted insults about the PKK leader in the aftermath of the attack in Ankara.