Which College Football Playoff Hopeful is on Upset Alert?

With the first College Football Playoff rankings coming up next Tuesday, who could be in trouble this Saturday in Week 10 action?

Look at road games for the likes of Ole Miss, which travels to SEC foe Arkansas, who has been a thorn in the side of CFP contenders all season. Can the Razorbacks pull off another home upset and spoil the Rebels’ season?

Here are three best bets on some of the biggest games on the Week 10 card, including a way to attack Texas A&M’s road trip to South Carolina.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Ole Miss Arkansas Prediction and Pick

Although Lane Kiffin is known as the architect of high-powered offenses, this has not resulted in overs in the betting market.

The Rebels have been undersized this season, falling under the final total in seven of eight games in 2024. The team’s offense has been elite, but the defense has far exceeded expectations. Additionally, with injuries on the offensive side of the ball on the rise, the team has struggled to move up the scoreboard in SEC play, failing to score more than 27 points in four games.

The team will travel to Fayetteville to take on Arkansas, which has been vulnerable to big passing plays but has also shown a strong defensive line that can put the Rebels into clear passing downs. The Razorbacks’ defense ranks 38th in EPA/Play on early downs, and 36th in average third and fourth down success percentage. Ole Miss has struggled on third down compared to expectations, ranking just 49th in third- and fourth-place success percentage.

Meanwhile, we saw Arkansas implement a hasty script against Tennessee in a stunning upset a few weeks ago, and could we see something similar here?

Arkansas is an elite rushing unit, ranking in the top 10 in the nation in ground success rate. Furthermore, the team has been fantastic at extending drives, converting 48.5% of third downs, which ranks 12th in the nation.

I like that the Hogs are a running dog in this one and keep it within the score, and possibly pull off an upset.

Pick: Arkansas +7.5

Prediction and pick Minnesota vs. Illinois

While I think Illinois is being overlooked as a domestic underdog, my preference in this game is the over.

Both offenses have moved the ball nicely this season and provide opportunities to attack the other.

As Minnesota’s passing game comes alive with Brosmer under center, running back Darius Taylor is in for a big afternoon against a Fighting Illini defense that has struggled to contain the rush all season.

Illinois ranks 132nd in defensive line and 111th in EPA/Rush. Against a healthy Taylor, who is averaging almost five yards per carry, I expect the Gophers to play from before the sticks in this one.

Meanwhile, Minnesota has been helped by some luck this season, playing USC up a storm and avoiding any competent passing play thus far. While Illinois has battled its elite competition through the air, this group could test an overrated high school from Minnesota.

It all stems from the Golden Gophers’ lack of pressure, who rank 71st in pass rush class this season, according to Pro Football Focus.

When Altmyer has time, he has been among the elite all year long. When kept clean, Altmyer completes two-thirds of his passes with fourteen touchdowns and just three interceptions. When under pressure, he completes 50% of his passes with just one touchdown.

This total not only undervalues ​​both offenses, but each defense as well, and I like that the game is getting over the low number.

Choice: ABOVE 45

Prediction and Picks Texas A&M vs. South Carolina

This game is shaping up to be a defensive battle between two teams that go first and have elite defensive line play.

Whether it’s Reed or Weigman under center for the Aggies, the team is focused on the ground game. The team is in the top 10 in rushing this season, and if the team selects Reed, it will be even more grounded with the zone read game playing a big role.

However, with a full week to prepare for the quarterback keeper, South Carolina’s elite defensive line can keep an eye on it. The Gamecocks rank in the top 10 in yards per carry this season.

On the other hand, South Carolina’s offensive line is awful, especially in the SEC against elite defensive lines. The team has allowed the second-most sacks in the nation this season and is outside the top 100 in EPA/Play. Without a deep passing game, Texas A&M can rush LaNorris Sellers early and often.

This match will likely be determined by field position and who avoids the catastrophic mistake.

I expect the clock to keep moving throughout this game, but especially in the first half, as each team wants to take this game easy and not fall too far behind.

Choice: First half under 22.5

The game odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.

Follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach and get all his college football bets inset stamp @rw33

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