College Football Week 10 Upset Picks: Can Duke Defense Contain Miami?

Last Saturday, Duke forced six SMU turnovers and nearly upset the No. 20 Mustangs in Durham, but Duke kicker Todd Pelino’s game-winning field goal from 30 yards was blocked, and the Blue Devils lost in OT.

Against Miami, Duke will face the best offense it has seen all year, as Cam Ward is a legitimate Heisman candidate for good reason. However, the Canes found themselves in a number of close games, including one-score games in back-to-back-to-back games against Virginia Tech, Cal and Louisville in Weeks 5, 6 and 8.

Those teams are all solid, but have also lost at least three games this year.

Should the U really be favored by 21 over a solid, albeit offensively challenged, Duke team that is 6-2 (2-2 ACC)?

We don’t think so.

Duke +21 (-110): 1 unit

Illinois Moneyline (+130) DraftKings

Minnesota vs. Illinois, 12:00 PM ET (FS1)

A week ago, we couldn’t understand why BYU got points vs. UCFand sure enough, the Cougars won that game 37-24.

This week’s “wait, did I read those odds correctly”? prize goes to Minnesota vs. Illinois.

No, Illinois didn’t fare well in Eugene last Saturday, losing 38-9 to the Ducks in a game that was never close. Still, Illinois, whose only losses this year were to No. 1 Oregon and No. 3 Penn State, performed very well against non-elite competition this year. The Illini have wins over Kansas, Nebraska, Purdue and Michigan.

Minnesota opened the season at home with a tough loss to North Carolina, and the Gophers have also lost to Iowa and Michigan this year. However, this team has won three in a row, including a huge upset of USC.

Still, Illinois is the better team, and we’d like to see Bret Bielema’s team score another solid W today.

Illinois Moneyline (+130): 1 unit

Vanderbilt +7.5 (-108) DraftKings

Vanderbilt vs. Auburn, 12:45 p.m. ET (SEC Network)

QB Diego Pavia and Co. keep getting no respect from oddsmakers, and at this point it’s unbelievable. Coach Clark Lea’s team not only defeated Alabama in a game that was not the least bit volatile, but also defeated Kentucky and played Texas strongly in a 27-24 loss last Saturday.

Auburn (3-5, 1-4 SEC) was one of the worst teams in the SEC, with losses to 4-4 California and 4-4 Oklahoma, and before last week’s win over Kentucky the Tigers had had four in a row lost.

We’re not convinced that Vanderbilt will win this one outright (although that might be the case if this game were in Nashville instead of Jordan-Hare). Still, Vandy — which has yet to lose a game by more than four points this year — feels like a lock to keep this game respectable, if not pull off another upset, with its wins over Virginia Tech as a 13-point .5 points. dog and Bama as a 22.5-point ‘dog’.

Vanderbilt +7.5 (-108): 1 unit

Vanderbilt Moneyline (+240 at bet365): 0.25 units

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