The political realignment in 2024 has changed American politics

Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump will face off at the ballot box on Tuesday, with control of the US Senate and House of Representatives up for grabs.

This election cycle has seen unusual alliances and demographic shifts not seen in recent elections.

Billionaire Elon Musk joined former Democratic Rep. this time. Tulsi Gabbard and former Democrat Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to support Trump.

Meanwhile, Harris has hit the campaign trail with former Republican U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney, daughter of former Republican Vice President Dick Cheney, meaning the iconic Kennedy and Cheney brands are once again facing off, but this time from opposite sides.

These changes come with unusual demographic trends for Trump, as men lean more Republican and women favor Democrats, a seemingly widening gap for both genders.

Union workers, Hispanic voters and black voters are traditionally Democratic demographics that Trump has won favor with in this election.

“He has changed the makeup of the Republican coalition, and some of it used to be Democratic,” campaign veteran and former Mitt Romney spokesman Ryan Williams told The Center Square. “And if you’re in a tight race in a purple state, you want to appeal to those voters and try to get them to split their ticket.”

Polls show Harris has about 80% support among black voters nationally. Former President Barack Obama, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and President Joe Biden all managed to get between 90% and 95% support from black voters.

Trump has marginally increased his support among black voters and made even better progress among Hispanic voters.

As before The Center Square reportedNoble Predictive Insights released a new poll on Tuesday reporting Harris leading Trump with Black voters 78% to 20% and with Hispanic voters 50% to 45%.

“He’s reminiscent of Bush’s 2004 numbers,” said Williams, now at Targeted Victory, referring to when former President George W. Bush got 40 to 44% of the Hispanic vote, depending on which survey or analysis you cite .

“Trump can reach and connect with these voters in a way that my old boss, Mitt Romney, couldn’t,” Williams continued. “That doesn’t mean the Republicans are going to win these groups, but they are going to narrow the margin. That’s why I think this race is so close right now.

“You’re essentially heading into a dead end in many states because Trump has managed to divide traditionally Democratic constituencies and shrink margins,” he added.

The demographic realignment will have a major impact in the elections for the US House of Representatives and the Senate, with 33 Senate seats at stake. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for re-election every two years.

In the Senate, Democrats defend about twice as many seats as Republicans, which paints a difficult picture for the party. Republicans are also considered slight favorites to capture the U.S. House, according to betting markets.

Democrats have worked hard to revitalize their relationship with black voters, with Harris introducing new policies and even Obama reprimanding black men for not voting for Harris.

Last month, Obama told a gathering of black men to vote for Harris and suggested they would not support her because she was a woman, a comment that sparked backlash and criticism from Democrats.

“With all due respect, President Obama, what you said is not acceptable,” ESPN’s most famous anchor, Stephen A Smith, a Black man, said on one of his shows after the comments. “Is it possible that the reason that some black people are disinclined to vote or maybe a little disenchanted, or dare I say, goes so far as to vote for Trump, is it possible that this policy is opposed to misogyny ?

“Inflation, the cost of living, the cost of gas, the cost of groceries, it doesn’t matter?” he continued. “Immigration and our borders and this belief that there is a heightened sensitivity to them, as opposed to black people who are struggling or even starving in this country? Yes, that also plays a role.”