Swing states will likely determine the outcome of the US elections

A handful of states will play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election.

These are the swing states: so called because they will help swing the overall outcome toward Democratic nominee and current Vice President Kamala Harris, or away from Ms. Harris and toward her Republican opponent — and former president — Donald Trump.

Most states are not swing states and will not change hands in this election — but safe states alone are not enough to get Ms. Harris or Mr. Trump to the White House.

Here are seven swing states to watch.

All but one were won by President Joe Biden for Democrats in 2020, but all are being vigorously contested by Mr. Trump in this election.

–Pennsylvania

Donald Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016, confusing those who assumed it was a Democratic stronghold, as has been the case in every election since Bill Clinton won the state in 1992.

Joe Biden narrowly regained the lead for Democrats in 2020, but polls suggest the outcome this year is close to a razor’s edge.

A total of 270 electoral votes are needed to win the US presidential election, with each state allocated a fixed number of votes based roughly on the size of its population.

Whoever wins the popular vote in a state also wins all of that state’s electoral votes (with two exceptions, Maine and Nebraska, where the votes are divided at the district and state levels).

With 19 electoral votes up for grabs in Pennsylvania, this is a prime target for both candidates.

But because of the sheer number of ballots cast and early votes that need to be sorted and counted, the outcome likely won’t be clear for some time.

In 2020, the state was called for Mr. Biden just four days after Election Day.

–Michigan

Like Pennsylvania, it was part of the “blue wall” of states that voted Democratic in every presidential election from 1992 to 2012.

Trump’s 2016 victory was small – just 0.2 percentage points – but symbolized the magnitude of his success in moving working-class voters away from his opponent Hillary Clinton, especially in a state that Barack Obama had won by nine percentage points in 2012 .

Joe Biden won the state back for Democrats in 2020 with a nearly three-point lead over Mr Trump, but polls suggest it will be much closer this time.

There are 15 electoral votes in the game here.

–Wisconsin

This is another “blue wall” state that narrowly flipped to the Republicans and Donald Trump in 2016, before returning — by an equally narrow margin — to the Democrats and Joe Biden in 2020.

Like Pennsylvania and Michigan, the outcome in Wisconsin may not be clear in the coming days, thanks to the volume of mail and early votes that need to be sorted and counted.

Ten electoral votes are available here.

–Arizona

In 2020, Joe Biden was the first Democrat to win Arizona since Bill Clinton in 1996.

This marked a major turnaround from 2016, when Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in the state by more than three percentage points.

Biden’s victory was very slim and this year the state looks to be another nail-biter, with polls suggesting the outcome is too close to predict.

Arizona is worth 11 electoral votes.

–Nevada

Nevada has been won by Democrats in every presidential election since 1992, but often by narrow margins — and this year it could be closer than ever, with polls showing the race effectively tied.

Joe Biden won the state in 2020 by just over two percentage points.

Nevada does not have a large number of electoral votes — six — but in a close contest, a win here could be decisive in helping Ms. Harris or Mr. Trump reach the White House.

– North Carolina

This is the only swing state on the list that was won by Donald Trump in 2020, although the result was close: Trump received 49.9% of the vote and Joe Biden 48.6%.

North Carolina hasn’t been won by a Democrat since Barack Obama took over the state in 2008 — the first Democrat to do so since Jimmy Carter in 1976.

Opinion polls this year again point to a close battle, with as many as 16 electoral votes up for grabs.

North Carolina is the swing state most likely to report quick results on election night, and as such will provide an early indication of how both Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump are faring.

– Georgia

In 2020, Joe Biden was the first Democrat to win Georgia since Bill Clinton in 1992.

Barack Obama never came close to winning, and Donald Trump won by more than five percentage points in 2016.

The 2020 result was so close that a recount was conducted, with the outcome not confirmed until more than two weeks after election day.

Just 0.3 percentage points separated Mr. Biden from Mr. Trump.

Like North Carolina, the state gives the winner 16 electoral votes, and polls here, as elsewhere, point to another incredibly close contest.

But polls are just snapshots, not predictions, and ultimately the outcome in places like Georgia could come down to which party manages to get more of its supporters to the polls.