Election betting odds turn to Kamala Harris after the Iowa poll

The markets for predicting the presidential election shifted sharply toward the vice president Kamala Harris Saturday evening after the release of a shocking poll showing her as the leading former president Donald Trump in Iowa.

A Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Survey found the vice president her GOP rival leads 47% to 44% among likely voters.

The poll sent Trump’s numbers plummeting, even as he maintained his overall lead in most markets.

Kalshi Trump had a 64-36 lead on Tuesday. On Saturday night, Trump led 51% to Harris’ 49% as of 9:15 PM ET — and it didn’t last long.

As of 9:30 a.m. ET, Harris and Trump were tied.

Trump’s chances are good Polymarkt also fell to 54.9% to Harris’s 45.3% Saturday, from a high of 67-33 on Wednesday of last week.

In the meantime, Predict it gave the advantage to Harris in the hours after the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll:

Election betting also saw Harris up 4.1% on Saturday night, mirroring an identical 4.1% decline in Trump’s chances earlier in the day:

Forbes explained on Friday how betting on elections works for those curious about placing a bet:

Platforms take bets for a particular candidate to win, with payouts depending on the market-implied odds on the day of the bet. So if a candidate were to bet $100 on a candidate with a 50% chance, he would pocket about $100 in profit if that person won, or he would lose the $100 if his choice lost (ignoring any costs charged by the bet). place).

Odds in the presidential election markets move similarly to other betting markets, such as sportsbooks, meaning that a major injury update that would change the betting odds on a game should have a similar effect as a swing-state poll that is more favorable than previous studies for a particular candidate. .

Do you have a tip for us? [email protected]