Four trades the Detroit Tigers could make to solve the problems at 1B

Should the Detroit Tigers trade for Toronto Blue Jays slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr.?

Imagine this lineup taking the field on Opening Day 2025: Guerrero at first base, free agent Alex Bregman at third base, Colt Keith at second base, Riley Greene in left field, Parker Meadows in midfield and Kerry Carpenter in right field, with Tarik Skubal as starting pitcher.

That’s a World Series-caliber team.

The reality of the situation is that Skubal will be under team control for the next two seasons before heading to free agency. If the Tigers can’t sign Skubal to a contract extension, they need to give themselves the best chance to win the World Series with him on the roster in 2025 and 2026. To get there, the Tigers would be wise to move on to the first baseman replace. Spencer Torkelsonat least in the short term.

Here are four hypothetical trades for the Tigers to upgrade first base with a right-handed hitter before the 2025 season, using the Toronto Blue Jays, Tampa Bay Rays, Milwaukee Brewers and Baltimore Orioles as trade partners.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Acquiring Tigers: 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Acquire Blue Jays: RHP Reese Olson2B/3B Jace JungRHP Matt ManningSS Jose Dickson.

The buzz: Guerrero, a four-time All-Star, is under team control for one more season — and is expected to make about $30 million in his final year of salary arbitration — before hitting free agency in search of a lucrative, 10-year contract that could approach what Juan Soto gets this season.

The 25-year-old hit .323 with 30 home runs and a .940 OPS in 159 games in the 2024 season. He has been a top-10 hitter in baseball the past four seasons. It’s unlikely the Blue Jays will trade Guerrero this offseason, but if the Blue Jays realize they can’t sign him to a contract extension and commit to reorganizing their roster with an emphasis on the future, they might sign him exchange within the next five months. , before Opening Day 2025. Guerrero’s return would benefit the Blue Jays now and in the future: Olson is a borderline All-Star pitcher under team control through the 2029 season, Jung through 2030 and Manning through with 2027, while Dickson is still part of the Dominican Summer League. . According to Jung, he is ranked as the Tigers’ No. 5 prospect MLB Pipeline.

For this trade to happen, however, the Tigers must sign Bregman to play third base and be all-in on winning a championship in 2025. If Guerrero is unavailable this season, perhaps the Tigers can sign the well-traveled vet Sign Carlos Santana. (most recently in Minnesota) to a one-year deal and revisit the Guerrero trade at the deadline to sign a superstar for three months with the goal of a postseason run to the World Series. One other thing: Remember when the Tigers traded for Miguel Cabrera in December 2007 (with two years left on his contract) and signed him to a contract extension in March 2008? The big difference is that Guerrero only has one year left on his contract, so after nearly a decade with the Blue Jays since signing as a famed international free agent, it’s almost impossible to imagine him throwing away the opportunity to win the reach open world. market – unless his team actually hands him a blank check.

Yandy Diaz

Acquiring Tigers: 1B Yandy Diaz.

Acquiring Rays: RHP Casey MizeRHP Troy Melton.

The buzz: A trade for Díaz, a one-time All-Star, is more realistic than a trade for Guerrero, but the Rays have been reluctant to consider offers for Díaz lately. The 33-year-old hit .281 with 14 home runs and a .755 OPS in 145 games in the 2024 season, making him the best hitter on a team with a below-average offense. His batting average of .303 ranks fifth among 230 qualified hitters over the past three seasons, and his on-base percentage of .383 ranks sixth, with Díaz winning the AL batting title in 2023.

Díaz is under contract for $10 million through 2025, plus a $12 million team option through 2026 (without a buyout), so the Tigers would have him for two seasons, which would allow for a purposeful transition of starting duties to Josue Briceño. in 2027. The Rays need offense, but historically the Rays covet pitchers with above-average induced vertical breaks on their fastballs, which is a strength of both Mize (16.2 inches) and Melton (17 inches). In 2024, Mize posted a 4.49 ERA with 29 walks and 78 strikeouts over 102⅓ innings in 22 games (20 starts) for the Tigers. The former No. 1 overall draft pick is under team control through the 2026 season.

If Mize unlocks a better slider, he should establish himself as a stable back-of-the-rotation starter with mid-rotation upside, but if not, he could be pushed to a long-term stay in the bullpen. Melton is the Tigers’ No. 11 prospect. He recorded a 5.10 ERA with 30 walks and 119 strikeouts over 100⅔ innings in 23 starts for Double-A Erie in 2024, his second full season in the minor leagues. He has the pitch mix and the assignment to develop into an MLB starter, possibly as soon as 2025.

Rhys Hoskins

Acquiring Tigers: 1B Rhys Hoskins.

Acquiring brewers: RHP Dylan Smith.

The buzz: It was no surprise when Hoskins exercised his $18 million player option to return to the Brewers in 2025. He’s not worth that price tag — the second-highest paid Brewer — so a salary dump could be in the cards, especially since prospect Tyler Black is set to start at first base for the Brewers. The contract also includes an $18 million mutual option for 2026 (with a $4 million buyout), which either team would decline unless Hoskins experiences a resurgence in production at the plate. The 31-year-old hit .214 with 26 home runs, 53 walks and 149 strikeouts in 131 games in the 2024 season, in his return from left ACL surgery that forced him to miss the entire 2023 campaign. Hoskins had career worst batting average (.214), on-base percentage (.303), OPS (.722) and strikeout percentage (28.8%), an ugly downfall after hitting .242 with a .353 OBP, .846 OPS, and a 24% strikeout rate from 2017 to 2022. Therefore, Hoskins fits in as a buy-low, rebound candidate for the Tigers in a trade.

As for the return, Smith has notoriety as a third-round pick in the 2021 draft out of Alabama, but his development has not improved over the past three seasons, partly due to injuries. He posted a 4.40 ERA with 31 walks and 59 strikeouts over 57⅓ innings in 14 games (13 starts) for High-A West Michigan in 2024, missing about three months with a right shoulder injury. If he can stay healthy, he has the upside of a two-pitch MLB reliever due to his average fastball and above-average slider. But Smith doesn’t have the pitching mix to be a starter in the major leagues. All things considered, the Tigers could be ready to move on from the oft-injured project.

Ryan Mountcastle

Acquiring Tigers: 1B Ryan Mountcastle.

Acquiring Orioles: RHP Ty MaddenLHP Lael Lockhart.

The buzz: Not only is Mountcastle a close friend of Greene’s as a fellow graduate of Hagerty High School in Oviedo, Florida, but he has also been an above-average hitter (but nowhere near an elite hitter) in each of his five MLB seasons, despite his free swinging approach. The 27-year-old will be under team control for two more seasons — he’s expected to make about $6.6 million in his penultimate year of salary arbitration — before hitting free agency after the 2026 season. However, the Orioles have expressed interest in trading Mountcastle, opening the door for top-100 prospects Coby Mayo and Samuel Basallo to play first base.

Mountcastle hit .271 with 13 home runs, 27 walks and 114 strikeouts in 124 games in the 2024 season. The high-chasing, low-running style doesn’t suit the Tigers, but he makes enough contact to benefit from hitting the ball hard. ball. His .745 OPS ranks 110th among 230 qualified hitters over the past three seasons, including a .733 OPS last season that ranked 15th among 25 first basemen. Because Mountcastle is expendable, the Orioles need to add MLB-ready starting pitchers at the higher levels of the minor leagues. In 2024, Madden posted a 2.55 ERA in four starts in Double-A Erie, a 7.79 ERA in 18 starts in Triple-A Toledo and a 4.30 ERA in six games (one start) in MLB. He could end up as a fastball-slider reliever, but he has the benefit of being a back-of-the-rotation starter due to a developing splitter. Lockhart is Triple-A depth as his fastball averages just 90.7 mph, but his splitter has an elite whiff rate of 54.8%. Madden, a first-round pick in the 2021 draft, is the No. 14 prospect in the Tigers’ farm system; Lockhart is at number 26.

Contact Evan Petzold at [email protected] or follow him @EvanPetzold.

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